Game Recap: SEA 3, LAK 2, December 23, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

SEA3

FinalTue, Dec 23, 2025Every game that night

LAK2

SEA beat LAK 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 1.98 expected goals to 3.19. LAK outshot SEA 37 to 28. E. Tolvanen led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). A. Laferriere had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. J. Daccord stopped 35 of 37.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SEA	0	3	0	3
LAK	0	1	1	2

2nd 1:10SEAJ. EberlePP0.16 xG
2nd 7:26SEAF. Gaudreau0.01 xG
2nd 16:02SEAB. Meyers0.06 xG
2nd 16:13LAKK. Fiala0.19 xG
3rd 8:45LAKA. Kuzmenko0.05 xG

Team Stats

SEALAK

28Shots on goal37

1.98Expected goals3.19

45Shot attempts77

225v5 shots on goal33

1/2Power play0/3

17Hits25

19Blocked shots5

6Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways15

6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 1.98 xGLAK 3.19 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA27 on goal, 3 scored

LAK37 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	2	2	2	3	1	+1	0	19:33	1:43
C. Stephenson	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	20:03	1:43
F. Gaudreau	C	1	0	1	2	1	2	+1	0	19:06	0:22
J. Eberle	RW	1	0	1	4	0	1	0	2	17:41	1:20
M. Beniers	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	2	17:33	1:43
B. Meyers	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	12:21	0:00
K. Kakko	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:07	0:22
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	13:16	0:22
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	12:28	0:22
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:02	0:00
J. Melanson	RW	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	0	9:12	0:00
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	9:08	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	1	1	3	0	3	+1	0	18:03	0:00
J. Mahura	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	17:33	0:00
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	25:23	0:23
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	21:36	1:43
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	19:18	0:00
C. Fleury	D	0	0	0	4	2	1	+1	0	16:37	0:22

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	37	35	2	.946	60:00	Win
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Fiala	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+2	0	19:49	2:21
A. Kuzmenko	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	15:14	2:18
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	3	5	1	-2	0	22:10	2:15
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	0	2	5	1	+1	0	21:52	2:11
A. Kopitar	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	19:45	2:10
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	9	4	0	0	2	17:44	1:53
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:00	2:12
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-2	0	13:22	0:04
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	13:21	0:02
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:16	1:23
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	12:11	0:07
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3:03	0:00
D. Doughty	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	24:27	2:04
B. Clarke	D	0	1	1	5	0	2	+1	0	21:14	2:40
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:38	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	2	17:22	0:09
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:42	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	15:34	0:06

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Copley	28	25	3	.893	58:34	Loss
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1F. Gaudreau15:31E. Tolvanen14:19C. Stephenson14:26

Line 2J. Eberle14:54M. Beniers14:53K. Kakko12:48

Line 3S. Wright12:54B. Catton12:06R. Winterton11:02

Line 4B. Meyers10:02T. Kartye9:08J. Melanson9:12

Pair 1A. Larsson19:02R. Evans18:51

Pair 2J. Oleksiak16:20J. Mahura16:04

Pair 3R. Lindgren14:38C. Fleury16:15

LAK

Line 1A. Kopitar15:10A. Kempe16:38A. Laferriere15:51

Line 2W. Foegele12:28T. Moore13:18Q. Byfield16:23

Line 3A. Turcotte12:04A. Kuzmenko12:21K. Fiala15:00

Line 4C. Perry10:22J. Armia10:04S. Helenius3:03

Pair 1D. Doughty19:55M. Anderson15:33

Pair 2B. Dumoulin17:13C. Ceci14:54

Pair 3J. Edmundson15:11B. Clarke16:57

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 2.5, LAK 3.0	SEA 3, LAK 2
Total goals	5.5	5
Shots on goal	SEA 25.0, LAK 29.0	SEA 28, LAK 37
Win chance	LAK 59%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK K. Fiala	3.0	2	0.85	1	32%	1
LAK A. Kempe	2.9	2	0.95	0	35%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.4	9	0.51	0	20%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.2	3	0.66	0	21%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.1	0	0.43	0	20%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.1	4	0.56	1	21%	1
LAK T. Moore	2.0	0	0.50	0	21%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.9	2	0.48	2	21%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.8	5	0.41	1	8%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.8	3	0.50	1	19%	0
LAK C. Perry	1.6	0	0.43	0	20%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.6	2	0.60	1	13%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.5	3	0.84	0	25%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.4	1	0.37	0	15%	0
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.4	3	0.58	1	24%	1
LAK J. Armia	1.4	1	0.41	0	17%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.4	0	0.59	1	19%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.3	2	0.36	1	16%	1
SEA S. Wright	1.3	3	0.40	0	17%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.2	0	0.25	0	6%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.2	2	0.25	0	5%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.1	1	0.27	0	10%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.0	0	0.13	0	7%	0
SEA B. Catton	1.0	2	0.26	0	9%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.9	1	0.26	0	5%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.9	2	0.22	0	3%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.9	3	0.16	1	4%	0
SEA C. Fleury	0.9	4	0.11	0	2%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.9	1	0.21	0	4%	0
SEA B. Meyers	0.9	1	0.15	1	8%	1
LAK C. Ceci	0.9	1	0.20	0	3%	0
SEA J. Mahura	0.8	0	0.15	1	3%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.7	1	0.22	0	5%	0
SEA T. Kartye	0.7	1	0.17	0	8%	0
SEA J. Melanson	0.7	0	0.10	0	6%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.4	0	0.10	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.