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Game Recap
SEA0
MIN4
MIN beat SEA 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 2.96 expected goals to 2.12. M. Boldy led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). R. Evans had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.7. F. Gustavsson stopped 34 of 34.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MIN | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 2:47MINR. Hartman0.14 xG
- 1st 3:59MINM. Boldy0.14 xG
- 1st 4:29MINL. Ohgren0.11 xG
- 3rd 18:23MINM. BoldyEN0.29 xG
Team Stats
SEAMIN
34Shots on goal28
2.12Expected goals2.96
61Shot attempts50
255v5 shots on goal27
0/1Power play0/2
17Hits17
9Blocked shots18
8Penalty minutes6
14Giveaways13
10Takeaways12
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SEA 2.12 xGMIN 2.96 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:54 | 1:23 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:36 | 0:43 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:31 | 1:14 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:59 | 1:04 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:58 | 0:47 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 16:43 | 1:04 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:30 | 0:00 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:42 | 0:00 |
| J. Nyman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:16 | 0:43 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:33 | 0:50 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:14 | 0:03 |
| J. Hayden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:16 | 0:00 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:55 | 0:00 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:51 | 1:17 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 4 | 21:35 | 0:43 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:08 | 0:09 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:28 | 0:00 |
| C. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:26 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Grubauer | 27 | 24 | 3 | .889 | 58:25 | Loss |
| J. Daccord | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Boldy | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:28 | 2:03 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 22:26 | 2:03 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:05 | 1:26 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:48 | 2:35 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:24 | 1:46 |
| L. Ohgren | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:14 | 0:10 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 21:29 | 2:37 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:38 | 1:23 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11:07 | 0:00 |
| B. Gaunce | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:19 | 0:00 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 3:00 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:46 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 26:01 | 2:15 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:23 | 0:10 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:21 | 1:47 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:45 | 1:45 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:44 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 34 | 34 | 0 | 1.000 | 59:48 | Win |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEA 2.8, MIN 3.1 | SEA 0, MIN 4 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | SEA 27.3, MIN 27.9 | SEA 34, MIN 28 |
| Win chance | MIN 56% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.1 | 2 | 0.94 | 2 | 31% | 2 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.5 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.2 | 2 | 0.89 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.1 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.1 | 4 | 0.56 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 2.1 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.8 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.7 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 1.6 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 1.6 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.6 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.5 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.5 | 0 | 0.49 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.5 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA M. Eyssimont | 1.5 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.4 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.4 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.3 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.3 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN G. Nyquist | 1.3 | 3 | 0.58 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| MIN L. Ohgren | 1.2 | 4 | 0.27 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.2 | 4 | 0.58 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MIN B. Gaunce | 1.1 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brazeau | 0.9 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA C. Fleury | 0.9 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA J. Hayden | 0.8 | 2 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 0.7 | 4 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.7 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.6 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.