Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
SEA4
MTL5
MTL beat SEA 5-4 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.36 expected goals to 1.80. C. Caufield led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Montembeault stopped 18 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| MTL | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 4:37MTLA. Newhook0.07 xG
- 2nd 3:33SEAJ. SchwartzPP0.20 xG
- 2nd 7:12MTLC. Caufield0.12 xG
- 2nd 17:52SEAJ. Nyman0.10 xG
- 3rd 1:12MTLK. Dach0.23 xG
- 3rd 4:48SEAJ. Oleksiak0.03 xG
- 3rd 7:56SEAJ. McCann0.11 xG
- 3rd 17:19MTLI. Demidov0.14 xG
- OT 3:25MTLC. Caufield0.10 xG
Team Stats
SEAMTL
22Shots on goal22
1.80Expected goals2.36
57Shot attempts53
165v5 shots on goal20
1/4Power play0/2
32Hits25
17Blocked shots23
6Penalty minutes8
13Giveaways13
5Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SEA 1.80 xGMTL 2.36 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. McCann | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:50 | 3:36 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:15 | 2:17 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:35 | 0:00 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:47 | 0:00 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:15 | 1:45 |
| J. Nyman | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:31 | 0:00 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:26 | 3:03 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:18 | 3:18 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:25 | 3:00 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:17 | 2:22 |
| R. Winterton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:45 | 0:00 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 11:58 | 1:21 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:20 | 2:06 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 20:54 | 3:42 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:38 | 0:02 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:11 | 0:04 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 | 21:11 | 0:03 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 22 | 17 | 5 | .773 | 63:25 | OT loss |
| P. Grubauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Caufield | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 17:43 | 1:52 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 14:43 | 2:03 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:48 | 1:57 |
| A. Newhook | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:41 | 0:03 |
| K. Dach | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:14 | 1:58 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:45 | 2:05 |
| P. Laine | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:43 | 2:01 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 17:53 | 1:55 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 17:14 | 0:03 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:12 | 1:57 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:03 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:26 | 0:00 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 25:19 | 0:03 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:45 | 2:13 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:08 | 1:44 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 15:16 | 0:03 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:04 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:00 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 22 | 18 | 4 | .818 | 63:13 | Win |
| J. Dobes | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
SEA
Line 1J. Schwartz15:59C. Stephenson15:00R. Winterton12:41
Line 2J. Eberle12:25M. Beniers12:29J. McCann10:26
Line 3T. Kartye11:57F. Gaudreau12:46J. Nyman9:31
Line 4M. Marchment10:37S. Wright10:07E. Tolvanen11:52
Pair 1R. Lindgren16:57B. Montour18:25
Pair 2A. Larsson17:36V. Dunn14:57
Pair 3J. Oleksiak14:13J. Mahura15:47
MTL
Line 1N. Suzuki14:29J. Slafkovský14:48C. Caufield13:32
Line 2K. Dach13:08Z. Bolduc12:09B. Gallagher11:40
Line 3J. Anderson11:32J. Evans13:21P. Laine8:36
Line 4A. Newhook12:32I. Demidov11:07O. Kapanen9:17
Pair 1M. Matheson21:22N. Dobson17:10
Pair 3A. Carrier11:51A. Xhekaj9:27
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEA 3.0, MTL 3.1 | SEA 4, MTL 5 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | SEA 26.9, MTL 26.6 | SEA 22, MTL 22 |
| Win chance | MTL 51% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.2 | 2 | 0.83 | 2 | 33% | 2 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.7 | 3 | 0.49 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.6 | 3 | 0.75 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| MTL N. Dobson | 2.4 | 1 | 0.62 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.2 | 1 | 1.02 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.2 | 1 | 0.54 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 2.2 | 1 | 0.70 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 2.1 | 2 | 0.62 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 2.0 | 3 | 0.65 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MTL P. Laine | 2.0 | 2 | 0.56 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| SEA M. Marchment | 2.0 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| MTL Z. Bolduc | 2.0 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.9 | 3 | 0.50 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.8 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.8 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.4 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| SEA R. Winterton | 1.4 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SEA J. Nyman | 1.4 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.3 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.3 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.3 | 0 | 0.56 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| SEA F. Gaudreau | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.77 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.0 | 1 | 0.44 | 2 | 14% | 1 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.0 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA R. Lindgren | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 0.8 | 2 | 0.18 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 0.8 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.