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Game Recap
SEA7
NSH3
SEA beat NSH 7-3 despite fewer good chances: 1.99 expected goals to 2.68. A. Larsson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Tanev had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Daccord stopped 30 of 33.
Team Stats
SEANSH
35Shots on goal33
1.99Expected goals2.68
49Shot attempts64
265v5 shots on goal22
0/2Power play0/2
23Hits29
19Blocked shots8
6Penalty minutes6
15Giveaways14
6Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SEA 1.99 xGNSH 2.68 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:23 | 1:55 |
| J. McCann | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 2 | 15:44 | 1:58 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 14:49 | 1:55 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:14 | 0:00 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:42 | 2:03 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:59 | 0:00 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 13:58 | 2:05 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:06 | 1:57 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:40 | 2:05 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:21 | 0:00 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 12:06 | 2:02 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +4 | 0 | 26:01 | 0:00 |
| A. Larsson | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:14 | 0:00 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 23:13 | 2:21 |
| R. Evans | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:48 | 0:00 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:24 | 1:39 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 33 | 30 | 3 | .909 | 59:46 | Win |
| P. Grubauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:29 | 3:05 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:27 | 3:05 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:03 | 0:55 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:58 | 0:46 |
| T. Novak | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:20 | 0:55 |
| M. McCarron | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 10:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Parssinen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 5:54 | 0:00 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:30 | 1:07 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:52 | 2:53 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:28 | 1:58 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 13:35 | 0:10 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:22 | 0:00 |
| B. Skjei | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:51 | 1:07 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:43 | 0:12 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 27:02 | 2:53 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:59 | 0:00 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:05 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 34 | 28 | 6 | .824 | 57:05 | Loss |
| S. Wedgewood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEA 2.7, NSH 3.3 | SEA 7, NSH 3 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | SEA 26.9, NSH 31.5 | SEA 35, NSH 33 |
| Win chance | NSH 60% | SEA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.8 | 5 | 1.11 | 1 | 41% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 3.2 | 2 | 1.07 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 3.2 | 4 | 0.88 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| NSH R. Josi | 3.1 | 2 | 0.95 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.5 | 3 | 0.71 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 2.2 | 2 | 0.82 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.1 | 3 | 0.52 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.0 | 5 | 0.48 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| SEA O. Bjorkstrand | 2.0 | 2 | 0.55 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 1.9 | 3 | 0.58 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.9 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 1.8 | 3 | 0.42 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 1.8 | 1 | 0.45 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| NSH G. Nyquist | 1.7 | 2 | 0.82 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.7 | 4 | 0.51 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 1.6 | 3 | 0.59 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.6 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SEA Y. Gourde | 1.4 | 1 | 0.41 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.4 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.3 | 3 | 0.24 | 2 | 7% | 1 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.3 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.64 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH T. Novak | 1.2 | 3 | 0.49 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| NSH J. Lauzon | 1.1 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA B. Tanev | 1.1 | 6 | 0.29 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| NSH A. Carrier | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 2 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 1.1 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| NSH M. Jankowski | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH J. Parssinen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.35 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH L. Schenn | 1.0 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA W. Borgen | 1.0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH D. Fabbro | 0.9 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.