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Game Recap
SEA3
NSH5
NSH beat SEA 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.57 expected goals to 1.76. NSH outshot SEA 34 to 25. F. Forsberg led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Jankowski had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. J. Saros stopped 22 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| NSH | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 0:32SEAA. Larsson0.12 xG
- 1st 7:15NSHF. Forsberg0.25 xG
- 2nd 3:33NSHB. Skjei0.05 xG
- 2nd 5:48NSHF. Forsberg0.03 xG
- 2nd 19:51NSHM. McCarron0.43 xG
- 3rd 13:31SEAJ. McCannPP0.07 xG
- 3rd 17:15NSHL. EvangelistaEN0.47 xG
- 3rd 18:14SEAM. Eyssimont0.05 xG
Team Stats
SEANSH
25Shots on goal34
1.76Expected goals3.57
58Shot attempts62
205v5 shots on goal29
1/3Power play0/1
24Hits26
16Blocked shots22
2Penalty minutes6
21Giveaways11
6Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SEA 1.76 xGNSH 3.57 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:57 | 2:48 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:34 | 3:05 |
| J. McCann | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:50 | 2:48 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:29 | 2:53 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:39 | 0:00 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:33 | 2:58 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:36 | 2:51 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:13 | 3:06 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:55 | 0:00 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 14:05 | 2:57 |
| J. Melanson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:53 | 0:00 |
| B. Meyers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:41 | 0:00 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 22:29 | 3:13 |
| A. Larsson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:58 | 0:10 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:00 | 0:00 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 24:16 | 2:41 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:03 | 0:00 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 16:35 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 33 | 29 | 4 | .879 | 57:14 | Loss |
| P. Grubauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 16:49 | 1:41 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 16:01 | 1:41 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 17:36 | 1:44 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:23 | 0:00 |
| M. McCarron | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 15:20 | 0:00 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:36 | 1:44 |
| O. Wiesblatt | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:43 | 0:00 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:26 | 0:16 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:48 | 0:16 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:13 | 0:19 |
| J. Lucchini | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:35 | 0:00 |
| B. Skjei | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:25 | 1:39 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:45 | 0:00 |
| M. Del Gaizo | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:08 | 0:19 |
| S. Stastney | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:02 | 0:21 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:00 | 0:00 |
| A. Englund | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:59 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 25 | 22 | 3 | .880 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEA 2.9, NSH 3.1 | SEA 3, NSH 5 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | SEA 26.9, NSH 30.0 | SEA 25, NSH 34 |
| Win chance | NSH 54% | NSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.4 | 5 | 1.02 | 2 | 36% | 2 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 2.8 | 1 | 0.81 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.4 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.4 | 1 | 0.85 | 2 | 33% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.3 | 3 | 0.69 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.2 | 5 | 0.58 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 2.1 | 3 | 0.73 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.0 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 2.0 | 3 | 0.74 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 1.9 | 4 | 0.45 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.8 | 0 | 0.56 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.8 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.7 | 3 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 1.6 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.6 | 0 | 0.42 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH M. Gaizo | 1.5 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA M. Eyssimont | 1.4 | 3 | 0.20 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.4 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.2 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.69 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.1 | 4 | 0.27 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH J. Barron | 1.1 | 2 | 0.28 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH M. Jankowski | 1.0 | 4 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 0.8 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stastney | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH J. Lucchini | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA B. Meyers | 0.6 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NSH A. Englund | 0.5 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.