Game Recap: SEA 1, NSH 3, March 19, 2026

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Game Recap

SEA1

FinalThu, Mar 19, 2026Every game that night

NSH3

NSH beat SEA 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.96 expected goals to 2.49. F. Forsberg led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). E. Haula had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. J. Annunen stopped 25 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SEA	1	0	0	1
NSH	1	1	1	3

1st 6:14NSHR. Ufko0.04 xG
1st 18:40SEAF. Gaudreau0.09 xG
2nd 7:11NSHR. O'ReillyPP0.27 xG
3rd 18:10NSHF. ForsbergEN0.45 xG

Team Stats

SEANSH

26Shots on goal28

2.49Expected goals4.96

56Shot attempts67

245v5 shots on goal23

0/2Power play1/3

14Hits18

13Blocked shots8

6Penalty minutes6

16Giveaways14

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 2.49 xGNSH 4.96 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA26 on goal, 1 scored

NSH27 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Stephenson	C	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	20:38	2:55
F. Gaudreau	C	1	0	1	2	3	1	0	0	17:16	0:10
K. Kakko	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	15:19	0:55
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	21:13	2:51
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	20:02	2:41
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	18:17	0:53
J. McCann	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	17:00	2:57
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:15	1:08
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	14:14	0:58
B. Meyers	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	9:18	0:09
J. Nyman	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	6:00	0:10
J. Melanson	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	4:14	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	-2	0	23:25	3:04
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	22:58	1:04
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	20:39	0:05
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18:57	0:00
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	2	17:36	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	+1	4	13:11	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	27	25	2	.926	58:14	Loss
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Forsberg	LW	1	2	3	2	0	0	+1	0	18:28	2:32
R. O'Reilly	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	21:42	2:19
S. Stamkos	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	19:38	2:33
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	5	1	0	+1	2	17:28	1:55
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:51	1:44
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	16:08	0:00
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	2	14:04	2:30
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:09	1:42
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	12:34	0:00
O. Wiesblatt	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	9:25	0:00
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	8:35	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:19	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	26:32	1:39
R. Ufko	D	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	13:58	1:30
R. Josi	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	25:50	2:46
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20:05	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	18:21	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	12:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	26	25	1	.962	59:58	Win
M. Murray	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle14:09M. Beniers14:19B. McMann16:02

Line 2C. Stephenson14:23K. Kakko13:57F. Gaudreau15:05

Line 3S. Wright13:48B. Catton12:22J. McCann12:48

Line 4J. Nyman5:50B. Meyers6:25J. Melanson4:14

Pair 1A. Larsson16:35V. Dunn17:31

Pair 2B. Montour19:15R. Lindgren16:20

Pair 3J. Oleksiak12:11R. Evans14:36

NSH

Line 1S. Stamkos14:16R. O'Reilly16:24L. Evangelista14:46

Line 2F. Forsberg14:10J. Marchessault11:23M. Wood11:27

Line 3T. Jost13:45E. Haula11:56Z. L'Heureux10:26

Line 4O. Wiesblatt8:17R. Schaefer8:35F. Svechkov8:19

Pair 1R. Josi19:45B. Skjei20:14

Pair 2R. Ufko12:28N. Perbix15:17

Pair 3N. Hague16:41J. Barron11:41

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMatthew Wood SEA First game back in Nashville, his team until Oct 20260 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 3.1, NSH 3.1	SEA 1, NSH 3
Total goals	6.2	4
Shots on goal	SEA 26.6, NSH 29.8	SEA 26, NSH 28
Win chance	NSH 51%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.2	2	0.95	3	37%	1
NSH R. Josi	3.0	2	0.91	0	19%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	0	0.86	1	36%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.5	3	0.73	0	30%	0
SEA B. McMann	2.5	2	0.62	0	27%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.4	3	0.55	0	17%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.2	3	0.73	0	27%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.2	2	0.91	1	29%	1
NSH L. Evangelista	2.2	1	0.63	0	17%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.0	2	0.68	0	22%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.8	3	0.61	0	22%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.7	5	0.46	0	19%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.7	3	0.56	0	13%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.7	2	0.42	1	10%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.6	0	0.44	0	20%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.4	2	0.28	0	12%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.4	1	0.48	0	19%	0
SEA J. Nyman	1.4	0	0.30	0	14%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.3	0	0.46	1	16%	0
SEA B. Meyers	1.3	0	0.30	0	13%	0
SEA B. Catton	1.2	3	0.28	0	12%	0
NSH N. Hague	1.2	1	0.27	0	6%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.2	3	0.24	0	11%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.2	1	0.63	1	18%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.1	2	0.37	1	15%	1
NSH N. Perbix	1.1	0	0.25	0	5%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.1	1	0.29	0	7%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	0.9	1	0.25	0	9%	0
SEA J. Melanson	0.9	1	0.19	0	9%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.9	0	0.22	0	6%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	0.8	1	0.22	0	12%	0
NSH J. Barron	0.7	2	0.18	0	5%	0
NSH O. Wiesblatt	0.7	0	0.17	0	7%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.7	0	0.22	0	4%	0
NSH R. Ufko	0.7	1	0.33	1	4%	1
SEA R. Evans	0.7	1	0.26	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.