Game Recap: SEA 5, NYI 2, December 5, 2024

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Game Recap

SEA5

FinalThu, Dec 5, 2024Every game that night

NYI2

SEA beat NYI 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.47 expected goals to 2.25. V. Dunn led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). N. Dobson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. J. Daccord stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SEA	2	2	1	5
NYI	0	0	2	2

1st 2:48SEAT. Kartye0.06 xG
1st 16:58SEAO. BjorkstrandPP0.09 xG
2nd 3:55SEAV. Dunn0.07 xG
2nd 13:05SEAS. WrightPP0.05 xG
3rd 11:57NYIN. Dobson0.04 xG
3rd 15:37NYIM. Tsyplakov0.27 xG
3rd 17:20SEAJ. SchwartzEN0.70 xG

Team Stats

SEANYI

25Shots on goal29

3.47Expected goals2.25

61Shot attempts63

205v5 shots on goal16

2/2Power play0/3

23Hits24

19Blocked shots14

6Penalty minutes4

8Giveaways13

10Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 3.47 xGNYI 2.25 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA25 on goal, 5 scored

NYI29 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Stephenson	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	21:03	2:55
M. Beniers	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	17:34	2:58
B. Tanev	LW	0	1	1	1	5	1	0	0	16:59	0:00
J. Schwartz	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	16:34	0:40
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	14:47	2:57
S. Wright	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	12:06	0:43
T. Kartye	LW	1	0	1	2	5	2	+1	0	11:31	0:00
J. McCann	LW	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	18:27	3:21
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	13:31	0:00
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	13:00	0:41
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	2	11:52	0:17
M. Stephens	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	10:00	0:00
A. Larsson	D	0	3	3	1	2	4	+3	0	21:42	0:00
V. Dunn	D	1	2	3	2	1	1	+2	0	20:08	3:03
B. Montour	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	-2	4	19:42	0:35
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	23:26	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:56	0:00
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	15:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	29	27	2	.931	60:00	Win
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Horvat	C	0	1	1	2	2	1	+1	0	20:52	3:49
A. Lee	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	18:40	3:27
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	17:41	2:30
M. Tsyplakov	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	14:12	2:32
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	19:59	3:29
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	18:48	2:10
K. Palmieri	C	0	0	0	4	3	1	-2	0	16:55	2:26
O. Wahlstrom	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	16:44	3:12
P. Engvall	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	12:01	0:01
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	11:59	0:01
H. Fasching	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:19	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	10:49	0:01
N. Dobson	D	1	0	1	5	2	2	0	2	23:09	3:39
R. Pulock	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	22:41	2:42
A. Romanov	D	0	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	18:55	0:00
I. George	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	16:38	0:01
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	2	14:32	0:00
G. Hutton	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	14:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	13	9	4	.692	40:00	Loss
M. Hogberg	11	11	0	1.000	16:24

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 2.7, NYI 2.9	SEA 5, NYI 2
Total goals	5.6	7
Shots on goal	SEA 28.4, NYI 28.3	SEA 25, NYI 29
Win chance	NYI 53%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SEA J. McCann	2.9	2	0.83	0	32%	0
NYI B. Horvat	2.8	2	0.79	1	32%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.7	1	0.59	1	14%	0
NYI B. Nelson	2.7	2	0.84	0	35%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.7	2	0.65	1	28%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.5	4	0.74	0	29%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.2	1	0.56	1	22%	1
NYI N. Dobson	2.1	5	0.60	1	11%	1
SEA O. Bjorkstrand	2.1	2	0.60	1	21%	1
SEA V. Dunn	1.8	2	0.62	3	11%	1
SEA M. Beniers	1.8	1	0.53	1	20%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.6	1	0.23	3	6%	0
SEA Y. Gourde	1.6	0	0.47	0	16%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.5	3	0.49	0	18%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.5	4	0.38	0	17%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.4	3	0.48	1	15%	1
NYI R. Pulock	1.4	3	0.33	1	7%	0
SEA B. Tanev	1.4	1	0.34	1	16%	0
NYI P. Engvall	1.3	0	0.33	0	14%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.3	1	0.48	1	22%	0
NYI O. Wahlstrom	1.3	0	0.25	0	11%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.3	1	0.25	0	5%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.2	1	0.66	1	19%	0
SEA T. Kartye	1.1	2	0.22	1	12%	1
SEA J. Oleksiak	1.1	1	0.21	0	5%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.1	2	0.37	1	18%	1
NYI G. Hutton	1.0	0	0.13	0	4%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.0	3	0.16	0	8%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.0	0	0.26	0	11%	0
SEA J. Mahura	0.9	0	0.18	0	3%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.9	2	0.21	0	5%	0
SEA W. Borgen	0.8	0	0.18	0	3%	0
NYI I. George	0.8	0	0.22	0	4%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.8	1	0.24	0	11%	0
NYI H. Fasching	0.7	0	0.23	0	9%	0
SEA M. Stephens	0.6	1	0.16	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.