Game Recap: SEA 0, NYI 1 (SO), November 23, 2025

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Game Recap

SEA0

Final/SOSun, Nov 23, 2025Every game that night

NYI1

NYI beat SEA 1-0 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 5.11 expected goals to 1.94. NYI outshot SEA 34 to 19. M. Barzal had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. D. Rittich stopped 19 of 19.

Team Stats

SEANYI

19Shots on goal34

1.94Expected goals5.11

51Shot attempts81

185v5 shots on goal30

0/1Power play0/2

14Hits18

23Blocked shots15

4Penalty minutes2

20Giveaways16

5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 1.94 xGNYI 5.11 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA19 on goal, 0 scored

NYI34 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Beniers	C	1	1	3	0	19:52	0:16
M. Marchment	LW	0	2	0	0	19:40	1:44
J. Eberle	RW	2	2	0	0	19:00	0:16
J. Schwartz	LW	4	0	1	0	18:44	1:44
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	1	0	18:34	0:16
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	1	0	16:34	0:00
E. Tolvanen	RW	1	0	3	0	14:58	0:00
T. Kartye	LW	0	2	2	0	14:22	0:00
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	0	12:51	1:44
R. Winterton	C	1	1	0	0	12:25	0:00
B. Catton	C	3	0	0	0	11:29	1:44
J. Nyman	RW	3	0	0	0	10:27	0:00
B. Montour	D	0	0	4	2	24:37	1:44
V. Dunn	D	2	2	0	0	24:35	0:16
A. Larsson	D	1	1	2	0	23:05	0:00
R. Evans	D	0	1	2	0	19:41	0:16
R. Lindgren	D	0	1	2	2	17:08	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	1	1	2	0	14:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	34	34	0	1.000	65:00	OT loss
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Barzal	C	6	0	1	0	24:00	1:44
J. Drouin	LW	3	0	2	0	21:09	1:45
B. Horvat	C	5	0	0	0	20:05	1:43
K. Palmieri	C	1	1	1	0	19:10	1:27
E. Heineman	LW	1	7	0	0	18:16	0:36
A. Lee	LW	1	1	0	0	17:56	0:34
M. Shabanov	RW	1	0	1	0	14:09	0:33
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	2	12:47	0:00
C. Ritchie	C	2	0	1	0	11:54	0:35
C. Cizikas	C	2	3	1	0	10:56	0:00
A. Duclair	LW	2	1	0	0	10:10	0:00
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	1	2	0	9:48	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	4	0	0	0	27:23	1:41
A. Pelech	D	0	1	4	0	26:14	0:00
R. Pulock	D	4	2	2	0	23:41	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	0	19:17	0:38
S. Mayfield	D	2	0	0	0	16:08	0:00
A. Boqvist	D	0	1	0	0	10:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Rittich	19	19	0	1.000	65:00	Win
I. Sorokin	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1M. Marchment17:24M. Beniers18:13J. Eberle16:57

Line 2C. Stephenson15:42J. Schwartz15:01E. Tolvanen14:08

Line 3T. Kartye13:33R. Winterton11:50F. Gaudreau14:54

Line 4J. Nyman10:27B. Catton9:04S. Wright10:20

Pair 1A. Larsson21:23V. Dunn23:14

Pair 2B. Montour19:55R. Lindgren16:49

Pair 3J. Oleksiak13:35R. Evans17:31

NYI

Line 1M. Barzal19:50J. Drouin17:34A. Lee17:22

Line 2K. Palmieri15:27E. Heineman15:31B. Horvat15:49

Line 3M. Shabanov12:28S. Holmstrom12:47C. Ritchie11:19

Line 4A. Duclair10:10M. Tsyplakov9:48C. Cizikas9:56

Pair 1M. Schaefer22:59R. Pulock21:31

Pair 2A. Pelech22:42T. DeAngelo18:39

Pair 3S. Mayfield15:52A. Boqvist10:16

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 2.8, NYI 3.1	SEA 0, NYI 1
Total goals	5.8	1
Shots on goal	SEA 25.4, NYI 28.8	SEA 19, NYI 34
Win chance	NYI 55%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Goal chance
NYI B. Horvat	2.9	5	0.82	33%
NYI M. Barzal	2.7	6	0.98	27%
NYI M. Schaefer	2.6	4	0.63	16%
NYI K. Palmieri	2.4	1	0.70	28%
NYI A. Lee	2.4	1	0.56	25%
SEA B. Montour	2.3	0	0.47	13%
SEA J. Eberle	2.3	2	0.68	25%
SEA J. Schwartz	2.2	4	0.55	24%
SEA M. Marchment	2.0	0	0.60	23%
SEA V. Dunn	2.0	2	0.59	12%
SEA M. Beniers	1.8	1	0.62	23%
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.7	0	0.42	8%
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.7	1	0.48	21%
NYI E. Heineman	1.6	1	0.47	22%
NYI J. Drouin	1.5	3	0.78	19%
NYI A. Pelech	1.4	0	0.26	3%
NYI M. Shabanov	1.3	1	0.43	15%
SEA C. Stephenson	1.2	0	0.66	20%
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.2	0	0.49	21%
SEA S. Wright	1.2	0	0.45	19%
SEA A. Larsson	1.2	1	0.28	6%
NYI R. Pulock	1.2	4	0.31	6%
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.2	0	0.33	15%
SEA J. Nyman	1.1	3	0.23	12%
NYI C. Ritchie	1.1	2	0.25	13%
NYI A. Duclair	1.1	2	0.32	17%
SEA T. Kartye	0.9	0	0.24	12%
SEA R. Winterton	0.9	1	0.15	8%
NYI M. Tsyplakov	0.9	0	0.24	8%
NYI A. Boqvist	0.9	0	0.25	6%
SEA R. Lindgren	0.9	0	0.25	4%
NYI S. Mayfield	0.9	2	0.18	4%
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.8	1	0.18	4%
SEA B. Catton	0.8	3	0.26	9%
NYI C. Cizikas	0.8	2	0.18	7%
SEA R. Evans	0.8	0	0.28	5%

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.