Game Recap: SEA 7, NYR 5, December 8, 2024

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Game Recap

SEA7

FinalSun, Dec 8, 2024Every game that night

NYR5

SEA beat NYR 7-5 despite fewer good chances: 2.56 expected goals to 3.16. NYR outshot SEA 37 to 22. O. Bjorkstrand led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). C. Kreider had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. P. Grubauer stopped 32 of 37.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SEA	0	4	3	7
NYR	1	2	2	5

1st 3:38NYRR. Smith0.12 xG
2nd 1:46SEAO. BjorkstrandPP0.19 xG
2nd 2:50NYRF. Chytil0.12 xG
2nd 4:47NYRV. TrocheckPP0.31 xG
2nd 14:06SEAB. Tanev0.20 xG
2nd 15:34SEAE. Tolvanen0.18 xG
2nd 19:24SEAO. Bjorkstrand0.11 xG
3rd 1:00SEAV. Dunn0.05 xG
3rd 11:13SEAS. Wright0.14 xG
3rd 12:27NYRK. Miller0.02 xG
3rd 14:57NYRA. Lafrenière0.10 xG
3rd 18:14SEAY. GourdeEN0.44 xG

Team Stats

SEANYR

22Shots on goal37

2.56Expected goals3.16

51Shot attempts78

185v5 shots on goal33

1/2Power play1/2

20Hits16

20Blocked shots14

4Penalty minutes4

15Giveaways11

5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 2.56 xGNYR 3.16 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA22 on goal, 7 scored

NYR36 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	2	2	4	3	0	0	+3	0	15:27	2:35
E. Tolvanen	RW	1	2	3	1	2	1	+3	0	13:25	0:45
C. Stephenson	C	0	2	2	1	0	1	0	0	19:52	2:35
M. Beniers	C	0	2	2	0	0	2	0	2	18:55	2:33
S. Wright	C	1	1	2	2	0	3	+3	0	12:27	0:33
Y. Gourde	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	18:09	0:00
B. Tanev	LW	1	0	1	2	4	1	0	0	13:49	0:00
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	12:35	0:49
T. Kartye	LW	0	1	1	0	6	0	0	0	11:56	0:00
M. Stephens	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	-1	0	10:25	0:00
J. McCann	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:12	2:37
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	16:47	0:47
V. Dunn	D	1	0	1	4	1	1	-2	0	22:18	2:59
J. Oleksiak	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+3	0	21:54	0:14
B. Montour	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	2	20:14	0:23
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	21:30	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	2	2	3	+1	0	15:46	0:00
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	15:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Grubauer	37	32	5	.865	60:00	Win
M. Matyas	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	0	2	2	2	1	0	-2	0	21:24	1:38
V. Trocheck	C	1	1	2	3	2	0	-2	0	20:39	1:38
M. Zibanejad	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	-1	0	19:31	1:38
A. Lafrenière	LW	1	0	1	4	2	0	-2	0	18:13	0:28
R. Smith	RW	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	0	17:38	0:00
F. Chytil	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	2	15:23	0:28
W. Cuylle	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	14:30	0:28
K. Kakko	RW	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	12:35	0:28
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	6	1	1	-1	0	18:35	1:38
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	8:08	0:00
J. Vesey	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7:52	0:00
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	7:52	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	2	2	2	0	0	-2	0	25:37	1:38
K. Miller	D	1	1	2	4	1	0	+1	0	23:38	0:00
Z. Jones	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	17:40	0:28
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	17:34	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	2	16:23	0:00
V. Mancini	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	0	0	15:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Quick	21	15	6	.714	57:57	Loss
D. Garand	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamEeli Tolvanen NYR Faces SEA, his team until Apr 20261 G, 2 A, 1 SOG
Old teamKaapo Kakko SEA Faces NYR, his team until Dec 20241 A, 0 SOG
Old teamOliver Bjorkstrand NYR Faces SEA, his team until Mar 20252 G, 2 A, 3 SOG
Old teamTye Kartye NYR Faces SEA, his team until Feb 20261 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 2.8, NYR 3.2	SEA 7, NYR 5
Total goals	5.9	12
Shots on goal	SEA 29.7, NYR 29.3	SEA 22, NYR 37
Win chance	NYR 57%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SEA J. McCann	2.9	1	0.77	0	31%	0
NYR A. Panarin	2.9	2	1.18	2	33%	0
NYR C. Kreider	2.5	6	0.75	0	37%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.5	3	0.85	2	27%	1
SEA B. Montour	2.4	1	0.53	1	12%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.3	3	0.90	1	28%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.2	0	0.53	0	21%	0
SEA O. Bjorkstrand	2.2	3	0.58	4	21%	2
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.1	4	0.65	1	25%	1
NYR F. Chytil	1.9	2	0.45	1	17%	1
NYR W. Cuylle	1.8	1	0.51	1	21%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.8	0	0.49	2	18%	0
SEA A. Burakovsky	1.7	1	0.47	1	16%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.7	2	0.81	2	13%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.7	4	0.59	1	10%	1
NYR R. Smith	1.6	3	0.52	1	18%	1
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.6	1	0.37	3	16%	1
SEA Y. Gourde	1.5	2	0.42	1	15%	1
SEA B. Tanev	1.4	2	0.34	1	15%	1
NYR K. Kakko	1.4	0	0.38	1	16%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.4	0	0.22	0	5%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.3	1	0.66	2	19%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.2	2	0.24	0	6%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.1	2	0.38	2	19%	1
SEA R. Evans	1.1	1	0.37	0	5%	0
SEA T. Kartye	1.1	0	0.21	1	11%	0
NYR Z. Jones	1.1	1	0.28	0	5%	0
NYR K. Miller	1.1	4	0.29	2	8%	1
NYR V. Mancini	1.0	2	0.27	0	5%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	1.0	1	0.20	1	4%	0
NYR R. Lindgren	0.9	1	0.23	0	5%	0
NYR S. Carrick	0.9	0	0.19	0	10%	0
NYR J. Vesey	0.9	1	0.21	0	9%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.8	0	0.17	0	10%	0
SEA W. Borgen	0.8	2	0.17	0	3%	0
SEA M. Stephens	0.7	0	0.15	1	6%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.