Game Recap: SEA 4, NYR 2, January 12, 2026

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Game Recap

SEA4

FinalMon, Jan 12, 2026Every game that night

NYR2

SEA beat NYR 4-2, with the chances close: 3.12 expected goals to 2.46. P. Grubauer stopped 20 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SEA	0	2	2	4
NYR	2	0	0	2

1st 3:08NYRM. Zibanejad0.14 xG
1st 5:31NYRS. Carrick0.08 xG
2nd 1:00SEAE. Tolvanen0.25 xG
2nd 4:27SEAJ. Eberle0.07 xG
3rd 12:02SEAB. Catton0.24 xG
3rd 19:50SEAJ. McCannEN0.44 xG

Team Stats

SEANYR

29Shots on goal22

3.12Expected goals2.46

43Shot attempts58

255v5 shots on goal19

0/2Power play0/2

20Hits31

19Blocked shots3

4Penalty minutes4

17Giveaways14

8Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 3.12 xGNYR 2.46 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA29 on goal, 4 scored

NYR22 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Beniers	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	+2	0	20:14	2:14
J. Eberle	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+2	0	19:38	2:16
J. McCann	LW	1	0	1	3	0	2	+1	0	18:48	2:14
F. Gaudreau	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	16:30	0:00
E. Tolvanen	RW	1	0	1	2	1	2	+1	2	16:04	2:15
K. Kakko	RW	0	1	1	3	2	0	+2	0	15:26	1:44
B. Catton	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	13:28	1:45
S. Wright	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	12:32	1:41
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:14	1:46
B. Meyers	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	12:36	0:01
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	9:08	0:00
J. Melanson	RW	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	8:13	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+2	0	22:12	0:00
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	22:02	0:02
C. Fleury	D	0	0	0	1	3	3	+1	0	20:54	0:02
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	18:53	2:16
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	0	2	16:31	1:44
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Grubauer	22	20	2	.909	60:00	Win
J. Daccord	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-2	0	21:17	3:34
M. Zibanejad	C	1	0	1	4	0	1	-2	0	19:38	3:38
S. Carrick	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	0	8:40	0:00
V. Trocheck	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	0	22:21	3:32
J. Miller	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	2	18:41	2:22
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	17:13	0:28
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:56	0:00
G. Perreault	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	0	15:20	0:40
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	14:15	1:20
B. Othmann	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	12:08	0:26
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	10:20	0:00
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	8:07	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	15:30	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	-3	2	25:14	3:15
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	-2	0	20:21	0:00
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	18:54	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:29	0:00
S. Morrow	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	15:28	0:45

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Quick	28	25	3	.893	58:08	Loss
S. Martin	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle16:13M. Beniers16:15K. Kakko13:42

Line 2J. Schwartz13:12E. Tolvanen13:00F. Gaudreau13:31

Line 3J. McCann15:13B. Catton11:43S. Wright10:51

Line 4B. Meyers10:10J. Melanson8:13R. Winterton8:19

Pair 1C. Fleury19:06R. Lindgren18:18

Pair 2A. Larsson17:40V. Dunn16:24

Pair 3J. Oleksiak14:03R. Evans14:47

NYR

Line 1V. Trocheck14:52G. Perreault14:40J. Miller13:54

Line 2A. Panarin15:51W. Cuylle13:14M. Zibanejad12:45

Line 3A. Lafrenière12:19N. Laba14:10B. Othmann11:42

Line 4S. Carrick8:40T. Raddysh10:20J. Brodzinski8:07

Pair 1B. Schneider18:38V. Gavrikov18:55

Pair 2W. Borgen16:18M. Robertson16:42

Pair 3C. Soucy14:53S. Morrow14:40

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamEeli Tolvanen NYR Faces SEA, his team until Apr 20261 G, 2 SOG
Old teamKaapo Kakko SEA Faces NYR, his team until Dec 20241 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 2.8, NYR 3.2	SEA 4, NYR 2
Total goals	6.0	6
Shots on goal	SEA 26.2, NYR 28.3	SEA 29, NYR 22
Win chance	NYR 56%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYR A. Panarin	3.2	1	1.22	1	35%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.6	4	0.94	1	30%	1
SEA J. McCann	2.4	3	0.70	1	26%	1
NYR V. Trocheck	2.3	2	0.88	0	29%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.3	1	1.01	0	31%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.1	1	0.52	0	22%	0
SEA V. Dunn	2.0	2	0.56	0	11%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	2.0	0	0.51	0	21%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.9	0	0.60	0	23%	0
SEA J. Eberle	1.9	2	0.57	1	21%	1
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.9	2	0.52	1	21%	1
SEA M. Beniers	1.8	1	0.56	1	20%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.6	2	0.40	0	9%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.5	3	0.48	1	17%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.4	2	0.26	0	6%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.4	2	0.43	1	18%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.3	2	0.44	1	18%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.3	1	0.29	0	7%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.3	0	0.31	0	14%	0
NYR S. Morrow	1.3	0	0.29	0	5%	0
SEA B. Catton	1.3	3	0.32	1	13%	1
NYR T. Raddysh	1.3	0	0.33	0	14%	0
SEA C. Fleury	1.3	1	0.13	0	4%	0
SEA B. Meyers	1.2	0	0.23	0	12%	0
NYR M. Robertson	1.2	2	0.25	0	5%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.1	2	0.21	0	5%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.1	1	0.22	0	8%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.0	1	0.27	0	12%	0
NYR G. Perreault	1.0	1	0.28	0	12%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.0	3	0.19	1	8%	1
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.9	1	0.19	0	4%	0
SEA J. Melanson	0.9	1	0.29	0	10%	0
NYR B. Othmann	0.9	1	0.10	0	6%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.8	1	0.22	1	4%	0
NYR C. Soucy	0.8	0	0.16	1	5%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.7	2	0.28	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.