Game Recap: SEA 5, SJS 1, April 5, 2025

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Game Recap

SEA5

FinalSat, Apr 5, 2025Every game that night

SJS1

SEA beat SJS 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.77 expected goals to 2.21. J. McCann led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. McCann had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. J. Daccord stopped 23 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SEA	2	3	0	5
SJS	1	0	0	1

1st 5:46SEAJ. McCann0.15 xG
1st 9:26SEAA. Burakovsky0.20 xG
1st 14:18SJSW. Smith0.42 xG
2nd 7:39SEAC. Stephenson0.16 xG
2nd 11:36SEAJ. Schwartz0.08 xG
2nd 18:07SEAJ. McCann0.16 xG

Team Stats

SEASJS

22Shots on goal24

3.77Expected goals2.21

56Shot attempts54

165v5 shots on goal19

0/6Power play0/4

9Hits21

14Blocked shots15

35Penalty minutes29

15Giveaways9

6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 3.77 xGSJS 2.21 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA20 on goal, 5 scored

SJS24 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. McCann	LW	2	1	3	6	0	0	+3	0	16:12	4:09
A. Burakovsky	LW	1	1	2	1	0	0	+2	0	15:19	4:24
C. Stephenson	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	2	18:55	3:13
S. Wright	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	+3	0	14:47	3:29
J. Schwartz	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	13:19	1:04
K. Kakko	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	2	13:02	3:19
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	19:43	4:13
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	17:10	3:49
J. Nyman	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:17	4:08
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	5	14:06	0:00
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	11:12	0:35
J. Hayden	C	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	12	8:28	0:06
A. Larsson	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	+1	2	20:24	0:54
J. Mahura	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	2	15:27	0:35
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	20:45	4:26
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	19:57	3:27
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2	0	19:19	0:29
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	10	16:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	24	23	1	.958	60:00	Win
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	20:48	4:57
W. Smith	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	2	18:12	4:31
T. Toffoli	C	0	1	1	5	0	1	0	0	17:05	4:21
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	21:47	4:21
W. Eklund	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	5	19:35	4:57
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:01	0:15
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	2	13:54	0:00
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-4	2	10:58	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	10	10:37	0:00
C. Lund	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-4	0	9:05	0:51
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:01	0:00
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	2	3	2	-4	2	7:18	0:15
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	24:23	0:00
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	-1	2	24:22	0:41
J. Thompson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	18:53	0:00
L. Carlsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	4	18:38	0:51
H. Thrun	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-3	0	17:09	0:00
M. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	8:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Georgiev	11	7	4	.636	31:36	Loss
G. Romanov	11	10	1	.909	28:24

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAlexander Wennberg SJS Faces SEA, his team until Mar 20240 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 3.7, SJS 3.0	SEA 5, SJS 1
Total goals	6.7	6
Shots on goal	SEA 30.6, SJS 28.2	SEA 22, SJS 24
Win chance	SEA 59%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS M. Celebrini	3.4	4	0.88	1	27%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	3.2	5	0.81	1	34%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.6	6	0.85	3	31%	2
SEA B. Montour	2.6	0	0.61	0	16%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.4	1	0.63	1	25%	1
SEA V. Dunn	2.1	2	0.77	0	15%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.1	3	0.70	1	22%	1
SEA E. Tolvanen	2.0	0	0.57	0	25%	0
SEA J. Nyman	2.0	0	0.55	0	20%	0
SEA M. Beniers	2.0	0	0.67	0	25%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.9	1	0.74	0	21%	0
SEA J. Eberle	1.9	0	0.68	0	24%	0
SEA M. Eyssimont	1.8	2	0.27	0	12%	0
SJS C. Grundstrom	1.7	2	0.25	0	13%	0
SJS C. Lund	1.6	1	0.39	0	17%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.6	2	0.57	1	21%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.6	2	0.36	0	9%	0
SEA A. Burakovsky	1.6	1	0.53	2	17%	1
SEA A. Larsson	1.5	2	0.39	1	9%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.4	3	0.71	1	26%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.3	0	0.41	0	16%	0
SJS J. Thompson	1.3	1	0.25	0	8%	0
SJS L. Carlsson	1.3	1	0.31	0	8%	0
SJS N. Gregor	1.2	0	0.18	0	9%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.1	2	0.77	1	21%	1
SJS M. Ferraro	1.1	0	0.28	0	6%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.1	0	0.50	0	16%	0
SEA J. Mahura	1.0	0	0.23	1	3%	0
SEA J. Hayden	1.0	1	0.13	0	8%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.9	0	0.24	0	5%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.9	0	0.38	0	6%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.9	0	0.21	0	8%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.9	0	0.21	0	11%	0
SJS M. Vlasic	0.9	2	0.20	0	5%	0
SJS H. Thrun	0.9	0	0.20	0	4%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.5	2	0.11	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.