Game Recap: SEA 4, SJS 2, December 20, 2025

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Game Recap

SEA4

FinalSat, Dec 20, 2025Every game that night

SJS2

SEA beat SJS 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.81 expected goals to 4.98. C. Stephenson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). W. Eklund had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. J. Daccord stopped 35 of 36.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SEA	0	1	3	4
SJS	0	1	1	2

2nd 6:52SEAE. Tolvanen0.09 xG
2nd 11:22SJSA. GaudettePP0.67 xG
3rd 0:36SJSC. Graf0.49 xG
3rd 1:55SEAR. Evans0.01 xG
3rd 4:27SEAR. Lindgren0.02 xG
3rd 18:36SEAC. StephensonEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

SEASJS

32Shots on goal36

2.81Expected goals4.98

43Shot attempts86

275v5 shots on goal26

0/1Power play1/4

18Hits19

23Blocked shots8

8Penalty minutes2

8Giveaways13

6Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 2.81 xGSJS 4.98 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA30 on goal, 4 scored

SJS37 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Stephenson	C	1	1	2	3	0	1	+3	0	22:06	1:01
E. Tolvanen	RW	1	1	2	1	3	2	+2	2	19:22	0:52
F. Gaudreau	C	0	1	1	5	0	1	+1	0	21:21	0:57
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	17:20	1:03
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	2	16:31	1:03
K. Kakko	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	16:28	0:59
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	14:10	0:00
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	4	0	2	+1	0	12:43	0:57
J. Nyman	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	12:30	0:58
B. Meyers	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:59	0:00
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	6:54	0:00
J. Melanson	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	6:12	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	+2	2	20:57	0:00
R. Evans	D	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	16:52	0:48
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	2	1	5	0	0	23:35	0:10
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	20:11	1:12
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	2	1	5	+1	2	19:29	0:00
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+2	0	17:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	36	35	2	.972	60:00	Win
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	22:32	5:04
C. Graf	RW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	19:24	2:06
I. Chernyshov	LW	0	1	1	5	0	0	+1	0	16:10	2:18
A. Gaudette	RW	1	0	1	2	0	1	-2	0	12:50	0:46
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	21:47	3:26
W. Eklund	LW	0	0	0	8	0	0	-3	0	20:48	3:28
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	-2	0	19:18	3:25
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	11:53	2:00
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	11:50	0:15
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:20	0:01
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	10:14	0:02
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	9:48	0:01
J. Klingberg	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	24:17	3:25
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	20:45	2:19
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	4	2	2	-1	0	18:20	0:00
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	17:33	0:15
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	16:47	0:00
V. Iorio	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	14:58	0:04

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	31	28	3	.903	58:26	Loss
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1F. Gaudreau17:39E. Tolvanen16:31C. Stephenson16:58

Line 2J. Eberle14:33M. Beniers15:04K. Kakko14:41

Line 3R. Winterton12:22S. Wright11:46J. Nyman11:32

Line 4T. Kartye6:54B. Meyers8:18J. Melanson6:12

Pair 1A. Larsson19:30V. Dunn18:59

Pair 2J. Oleksiak17:22R. Lindgren17:50

Pair 3R. Evans14:09J. Mahura14:25

SJS

Line 1A. Wennberg16:11W. Eklund15:51T. Toffoli14:34

Line 2M. Celebrini15:59C. Graf16:21I. Chernyshov13:52

Line 3A. Gaudette12:04T. Dellandrea10:36J. Skinner8:34

Line 4B. Goodrow9:25Z. Ostapchuk10:12R. Reaves9:47

Pair 1D. Orlov18:26J. Klingberg19:33

Pair 2M. Ferraro17:22S. Mukhamadullin15:40

Pair 3V. Iorio13:52S. Dickinson16:26

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAlexander Wennberg SJS Faces SEA, his team until Mar 20241 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 3.1, SJS 2.8	SEA 4, SJS 2
Total goals	5.9	6
Shots on goal	SEA 28.4, SJS 26.6	SEA 32, SJS 36
Win chance	SEA 55%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS M. Celebrini	3.5	1	1.28	1	34%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.6	5	0.77	0	31%	0
SEA V. Dunn	2.4	0	0.72	0	15%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.4	2	0.75	0	27%	0
SJS W. Eklund	2.2	8	0.76	0	22%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	2.1	1	0.60	2	25%	1
SEA M. Beniers	2.0	3	0.67	0	25%	0
SJS J. Skinner	1.9	3	0.53	0	24%	0
SJS J. Klingberg	1.8	1	0.59	0	13%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.5	3	0.75	2	23%	1
SEA J. Nyman	1.5	1	0.30	0	15%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.4	1	0.46	0	8%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.4	4	0.53	0	21%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.4	3	0.43	0	17%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.4	2	0.52	1	19%	1
SJS A. Wennberg	1.4	1	0.61	0	18%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.3	2	0.37	1	18%	1
SEA A. Larsson	1.3	2	0.33	0	8%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.3	5	0.41	1	18%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.2	0	0.28	0	9%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.1	4	0.23	0	4%	0
SEA B. Meyers	1.0	0	0.20	0	11%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	1.0	2	0.22	0	5%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.0	1	0.16	0	8%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	1.0	0	0.16	0	4%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	1.0	1	0.27	1	4%	1
SEA J. Mahura	1.0	0	0.21	0	3%	0
SEA T. Kartye	0.9	0	0.23	0	11%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	0.8	1	0.25	0	5%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	0	0.18	0	9%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.8	3	0.28	1	5%	1
SJS V. Iorio	0.7	0	0.15	0	3%	0
SJS R. Reaves	0.6	0	0.13	0	6%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.5	2	0.09	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.