Game Recap: SEA 4, STL 3 (OT), November 8, 2025

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Game Recap

SEA4

Final/OTSat, Nov 8, 2025Every game that night

STL3

SEA beat STL 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.21 expected goals to 2.50. SEA outshot STL 30 to 19. E. Tolvanen led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Eberle had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. P. Grubauer stopped 16 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
SEA	0	2	1	1	4
STL	2	0	1	0	3

1st 5:30STLD. Holloway0.11 xG
1st 9:40STLD. DvorskyPP0.10 xG
2nd 8:28SEAR. Evans0.02 xG
2nd 15:25SEAE. TolvanenPP0.20 xG
3rd 5:10STLJ. Kyrou0.14 xG
3rd 19:58SEAC. Stephenson0.08 xG
OT 1:57SEAS. Wright0.12 xG

Team Stats

SEASTL

30Shots on goal19

2.21Expected goals2.50

67Shot attempts40

245v5 shots on goal18

1/3Power play1/2

14Hits32

10Blocked shots22

2Penalty minutes6

20Giveaways14

4Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 2.21 xGSTL 2.50 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA30 on goal, 4 scored

STL19 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Tolvanen	RW	1	2	3	4	3	1	+1	0	15:17	3:16
C. Stephenson	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	21:48	3:06
J. Eberle	RW	0	1	1	5	0	0	+1	0	21:08	3:16
M. Beniers	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	20:54	3:20
S. Wright	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	12:41	1:32
T. Kartye	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	10:22	0:00
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	19:28	1:30
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	19:14	1:52
K. Kakko	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:40	1:34
B. Meyers	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	11:01	0:05
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	10:54	0:00
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:05	0:00
R. Evans	D	1	1	2	2	2	0	+1	0	17:44	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	+1	2	24:13	3:13
B. Montour	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	23:48	1:50
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	19:04	0:06
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	16:16	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:10	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Grubauer	19	16	3	.842	59:33	Win
M. Murray	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Holloway	LW	1	0	1	2	2	4	0	0	19:47	0:31
R. Thomas	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	16:05	1:57
J. Kyrou	RW	1	0	1	4	0	1	+1	0	16:00	0:30
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	14:18	1:58
D. Dvorsky	RW	1	0	1	2	4	1	0	2	11:13	1:58
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	20:42	0:27
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	1	3	2	+1	0	17:32	0:28
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	13:38	0:00
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	1	8	1	0	0	13:36	0:00
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:19	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	12:35	0:00
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	2	12:21	2:01
P. Broberg	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	25:32	0:02
C. Fowler	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	23:41	2:01
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	25:17	0:00
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	-1	0	22:05	0:27
M. Kessel	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	11:47	0:00
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	2	11:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	30	26	4	.867	61:57	OT loss
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle15:38C. Stephenson15:48M. Marchment16:59

Line 2J. Schwartz14:09K. Kakko14:07M. Beniers13:45

Line 3B. Meyers10:56T. Kartye9:29E. Tolvanen10:38

Line 4R. Winterton10:20S. Wright9:41B. Catton9:06

Pair 1B. Montour19:30R. Lindgren17:03

Pair 2A. Larsson15:48V. Dunn18:55

Pair 3J. Oleksiak13:39R. Evans15:29

STL

Line 1P. Suter16:50D. Holloway16:55P. Buchnevich10:22

Line 2N. Walker12:05M. Joseph11:52N. Bjugstad11:20

Line 3B. Schenn15:39J. Kyrou14:09R. Thomas11:21

Line 4J. Snuggerud10:20D. Dvorsky9:15A. Toropchenko10:10

Pair 1J. Faulk19:28C. Fowler19:50

Pair 2C. Parayko18:42P. Broberg19:28

Pair 3T. Tucker11:27M. Kessel11:47

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 2.8, STL 3.2	SEA 4, STL 3
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	SEA 24.4, STL 26.7	SEA 30, STL 19
Win chance	STL 58%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
STL J. Kyrou	2.6	4	0.79	1	32%	1
SEA B. Montour	2.4	1	0.48	1	14%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.3	2	0.73	1	25%	1
SEA J. Schwartz	2.0	2	0.54	0	23%	0
SEA V. Dunn	2.0	3	0.61	1	13%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.0	5	0.68	1	24%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.9	0	0.80	1	27%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	1.9	0	0.55	0	20%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.8	1	0.53	0	10%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.8	0	0.58	1	23%	0
SEA M. Marchment	1.8	2	0.54	0	21%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.7	0	0.45	0	11%	0
STL P. Suter	1.7	1	0.56	0	23%	0
STL N. Bjugstad	1.6	1	0.33	0	16%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.6	1	0.95	1	22%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.5	1	0.61	0	21%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.5	2	0.42	1	10%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.5	4	0.44	3	20%	1
STL C. Fowler	1.4	1	0.57	1	9%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.3	2	0.31	1	16%	1
SEA K. Kakko	1.3	1	0.43	0	17%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.3	3	0.29	0	7%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.3	2	0.53	1	21%	1
STL M. Joseph	1.2	0	0.34	0	11%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.2	1	0.67	1	20%	1
STL N. Walker	1.2	1	0.30	0	14%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.2	1	0.27	0	12%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.1	0	0.15	0	9%	0
SEA B. Catton	1.1	1	0.29	0	10%	0
SEA T. Kartye	0.9	2	0.23	1	11%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.8	0	0.25	0	4%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.8	2	0.25	2	4%	1
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.7	0	0.17	0	4%	0
STL T. Tucker	0.7	0	0.17	0	5%	0
STL M. Kessel	0.5	1	0.12	0	2%	0
SEA B. Meyers	0.5	1	0.11	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.