Game Recap: SEA 1, STL 5, February 26, 2026

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Game Recap

SEA1

FinalThu, Feb 26, 2026Every game that night

STL5

STL beat SEA 5-1, with the chances close: 3.09 expected goals to 3.12. STL outshot SEA 32 to 24. D. Holloway scored three for STL. L. Mailloux had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. J. Hofer stopped 23 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SEA	1	0	0	1
STL	1	2	2	5

1st 7:58STLD. Holloway0.12 xG
1st 12:32SEAK. Kakko0.17 xG
2nd 1:12STLJ. Kyrou0.17 xG
2nd 1:35STLD. Holloway0.25 xG
3rd 1:56STLP. Suter0.32 xG
3rd 16:59STLD. HollowayEN0.33 xG

Team Stats

SEASTL

24Shots on goal32

3.12Expected goals3.09

53Shot attempts53

175v5 shots on goal30

0/3Power play0/0

13Hits20

11Blocked shots12

0Penalty minutes4

17Giveaways13

2Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 3.12 xGSTL 3.09 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA24 on goal, 1 scored

STL30 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
S. Wright	C	0	1	1	3	2	2	+1	15:55	1:36
K. Kakko	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	14:54	1:38
J. McCann	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	19:28	4:22
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	19:02	4:25
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	18:58	4:24
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-4	17:11	4:22
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	15:33	1:35
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-3	14:00	1:38
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:51	0:00
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:09	0:00
B. Meyers	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:38	0:00
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-3	12:38	0:41
B. Montour	D	0	1	1	3	1	2	-3	20:36	1:35
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	22:19	4:25
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	18:44	0:00
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	18:32	0:06
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	18:30	0:00
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	15:21	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Grubauer	31	27	4	.871	58:41	Loss
J. Daccord	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Holloway	LW	3	1	4	5	0	0	+4	0	16:04	0:00
P. Suter	C	1	2	3	3	1	1	+3	0	15:33	0:00
J. Berggren	RW	0	2	2	1	0	0	+3	0	15:00	0:00
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	16:44	0:00
J. Kyrou	RW	1	0	1	4	0	1	+2	0	15:54	0:00
J. Finley	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	13:17	0:00
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	2	15:28	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:44	0:00
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:35	0:00
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	13:27	0:00
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	13:03	0:00
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	0	11:40	0:00
J. Faulk	D	0	2	2	2	0	2	+2	0	19:41	0:00
C. Parayko	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	21:37	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	22:30	0:00
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	+2	0	19:05	0:00
L. Mailloux	D	0	0	0	4	1	1	+1	0	19:01	0:00
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	2	18:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	24	23	1	.958	60:00	Win
G. Romanov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1J. McCann14:45M. Beniers14:18J. Eberle14:21

Line 2J. Schwartz13:47S. Wright14:08K. Kakko13:05

Line 3F. Gaudreau13:51R. Winterton13:09B. Meyers12:38

Line 4C. Stephenson12:28E. Tolvanen12:06B. Catton11:52

Pair 1J. Oleksiak18:39B. Montour18:29

Pair 2A. Larsson18:30V. Dunn17:38

Pair 3R. Evans18:15J. Mahura15:21

STL

Line 1P. Buchnevich15:22J. Kyrou15:33J. Neighbours15:23

Line 2D. Holloway15:08J. Berggren14:49P. Suter13:37

Line 3J. Snuggerud13:27D. Dvorsky13:35B. Schenn13:03

Line 4A. Toropchenko10:11N. Walker10:11J. Finley9:36

Pair 1C. Fowler18:14L. Mailloux18:38

Pair 2C. Parayko17:15P. Broberg18:09

Pair 3J. Faulk17:53T. Tucker17:16

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 2.8, STL 3.3	SEA 1, STL 5
Total goals	6.1	6
Shots on goal	SEA 23.8, STL 27.6	SEA 24, STL 32
Win chance	STL 58%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
STL J. Kyrou	2.8	4	0.81	1	32%	1
SEA B. Montour	2.4	3	0.50	1	13%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.3	3	0.75	0	28%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	2.3	1	0.59	0	21%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.2	5	0.64	4	24%	3
STL P. Buchnevich	2.1	1	0.80	1	28%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.9	2	0.56	2	11%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.9	2	0.57	0	11%	0
SEA J. Eberle	1.8	0	0.60	0	22%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	1.8	1	0.46	0	20%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.7	1	0.58	0	22%	0
STL P. Suter	1.7	3	0.48	3	21%	1
STL B. Schenn	1.7	3	0.58	0	23%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.6	2	0.45	0	20%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.6	0	0.65	0	27%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.5	0	0.40	0	19%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.5	1	0.45	0	10%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.5	0	0.35	1	9%	0
STL J. Berggren	1.4	1	0.45	2	20%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.3	3	0.45	1	20%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.2	0	0.26	0	8%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.2	0	0.30	0	7%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.2	3	0.43	0	6%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.2	1	0.40	1	14%	1
STL A. Toropchenko	1.2	1	0.25	0	11%	0
STL T. Tucker	1.1	1	0.24	0	6%	0
SEA B. Meyers	1.1	2	0.25	0	12%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.1	0	0.37	0	15%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.1	2	0.62	0	19%	0
STL N. Walker	1.0	1	0.28	0	13%	0
STL L. Mailloux	1.0	4	0.18	0	5%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.9	0	0.20	0	4%	0
SEA J. Mahura	0.9	1	0.20	0	3%	0
SEA B. Catton	0.9	1	0.21	0	10%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.7	2	0.26	0	6%	0
STL J. Finley	0.6	1	0.16	1	9%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.