Game Recap: SEA 4, VAN 3 (SO), January 2, 2026

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Game Recap

SEA4

Final/SOFri, Jan 2, 2026Every game that night

VAN3

SEA beat VAN 4-3 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.22 expected goals to 3.98. J. DeBrusk led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). B. Meyers had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. J. Daccord stopped 21 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
SEA	1	2	0	1	4
VAN	0	2	1	0	3

1st 17:34SEAC. Fleury0.02 xG
2nd 8:53SEAC. StephensonPP0.11 xG
2nd 13:06VANK. SherwoodPP0.49 xG
2nd 18:13SEAB. Meyers0.19 xG
2nd 19:22VANJ. DeBruskPP0.45 xG
3rd 6:15VANL. Karlsson0.30 xG

Team Stats

SEAVAN

28Shots on goal24

2.22Expected goals3.98

45Shot attempts78

225v5 shots on goal18

1/2Power play2/3

13Hits26

20Blocked shots6

6Penalty minutes4

18Giveaways22

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 2.22 xGVAN 3.98 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA28 on goal, 3 scored

VAN24 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eberle	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	19:15	1:21
C. Stephenson	C	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	17:10	1:26
K. Kakko	RW	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	16:42	1:54
J. McCann	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	13:23	2:04
J. Melanson	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	12:45	0:00
B. Meyers	C	1	0	1	8	1	0	+1	0	12:29	0:00
R. Winterton	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	10:51	0:00
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	0	19:56	1:14
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	17:49	1:49
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	17:07	1:58
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	17:06	1:11
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:26	0:00
C. Fleury	D	1	0	1	3	0	2	+1	0	17:55	0:03
J. Oleksiak	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	0	17:12	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	26:21	1:21
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	2	23:59	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	19:41	0:00
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	+1	2	19:06	1:54

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	24	21	3	.875	64:39	Win
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. DeBrusk	LW	1	2	3	5	1	1	+1	0	18:12	3:12
B. Boeser	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	-2	2	20:07	3:18
E. Pettersson	C	0	1	1	1	3	1	+1	2	19:31	3:18
K. Sherwood	LW	1	0	1	2	5	0	0	0	16:43	1:24
L. Karlsson	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	14:31	0:00
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	16:33	0:00
E. Kane	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	0	16:13	0:00
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	16:10	0:00
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:23	0:00
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:43	0:00
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:58	0:00
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	11:56	0:00
F. Hronek	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	0	27:29	2:00
T. Willander	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	18:32	1:18
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	3	2	2	0	0	23:11	0:00
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20:33	0:00
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	20:18	0:00
P. Joseph	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Demko	28	25	3	.893	65:00	OT loss
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle16:42M. Beniers16:47K. Kakko14:48

Line 2F. Gaudreau14:33E. Tolvanen14:24C. Stephenson12:37

Line 3B. Catton14:55S. Wright13:58J. McCann11:14

Line 4J. Melanson12:45B. Meyers11:39R. Winterton10:41

Pair 1A. Larsson21:47V. Dunn23:30

Pair 2R. Lindgren16:20C. Fleury17:24

Pair 3J. Oleksiak15:43R. Evans15:43

VAN

Line 1B. Boeser14:51M. Sasson15:21E. Kane15:41

Line 2E. Pettersson14:54L. Karlsson14:31J. DeBrusk13:18

Line 3D. Kampf13:49D. O'Connor14:16K. Sherwood12:59

Line 4N. Hoglander11:56L. Ohgren11:58A. Räty11:36

Pair 1F. Hronek22:56Z. Buium19:17

Pair 2T. Myers17:47P. Joseph13:03

Pair 3M. Pettersson20:52T. Willander16:25

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 2.8, VAN 3.3	SEA 4, VAN 3
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	SEA 26.1, VAN 28.4	SEA 28, VAN 24
Win chance	VAN 57%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.5	5	0.63	3	29%	1
VAN E. Kane	2.4	0	0.53	0	25%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.3	1	0.68	1	26%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	2.3	2	0.54	1	25%	1
VAN B. Boeser	2.2	1	0.76	1	32%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	2.2	1	0.94	1	32%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	2.0	2	0.61	0	23%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.0	0	0.62	1	22%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.9	1	0.54	0	13%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.7	3	0.56	0	20%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	3	0.54	1	7%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.5	1	0.42	1	18%	1
VAN L. Ohgren	1.4	1	0.24	0	11%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.4	0	0.42	1	15%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.3	2	0.36	0	16%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.3	1	0.41	0	17%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.3	1	0.44	0	17%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.3	1	0.66	1	19%	1
SEA A. Larsson	1.3	1	0.28	0	8%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.3	1	0.37	0	17%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.2	1	0.28	0	16%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.2	1	0.27	0	4%	0
SEA B. Catton	1.1	1	0.27	0	9%	0
SEA C. Fleury	1.1	3	0.12	1	3%	1
VAN D. Kampf	1.0	0	0.29	0	12%	0
VAN Z. Buium	1.0	0	0.45	0	8%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.0	2	0.17	1	8%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.0	1	0.34	0	14%	0
SEA B. Meyers	1.0	8	0.18	1	10%	1
VAN T. Willander	1.0	1	0.35	1	5%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	1.0	3	0.34	0	4%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.9	2	0.19	1	5%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.9	0	0.23	0	4%	0
SEA J. Melanson	0.8	1	0.22	1	7%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.8	0	0.31	0	7%	0
VAN P. Joseph	0.8	0	0.13	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.