Game Recap: SEA 5, VAN 2, March 14, 2026

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Game Recap

SEA5

FinalSat, Mar 14, 2026Every game that night

VAN2

SEA beat VAN 5-2, with the chances close: 2.74 expected goals to 2.29. B. McMann led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). D. O'Connor had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. P. Grubauer stopped 32 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SEA	2	1	2	5
VAN	1	0	1	2

1st 4:12SEAJ. McCann0.14 xG
1st 11:42VANE. Kane0.14 xG
1st 19:10SEAB. McMannPP0.04 xG
2nd 5:06SEAJ. Oleksiak0.14 xG
3rd 4:14SEAB. McMann0.10 xG
3rd 9:58SEAM. Beniers0.26 xG
3rd 19:40VANM. Rossi0.10 xG

Team Stats

SEAVAN

33Shots on goal34

2.74Expected goals2.29

62Shot attempts57

265v5 shots on goal32

1/3Power play0/2

20Hits24

9Blocked shots16

4Penalty minutes4

9Giveaways22

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 2.74 xGVAN 2.29 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA33 on goal, 5 scored

VAN34 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Beniers	C	1	2	3	1	0	0	+4	0	18:31	2:01
B. McMann	C	2	1	3	4	4	0	+1	0	18:04	2:22
J. Eberle	RW	0	3	3	1	0	1	+4	0	16:12	2:03
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	1	1	2	3	0	-2	0	19:42	2:21
J. McCann	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	16:36	2:17
S. Wright	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	12:09	2:05
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	18:04	1:45
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	14:12	0:02
B. Meyers	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	13:38	0:00
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:24	0:03
K. Kakko	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	9:50	1:51
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	8:56	0:00
B. Montour	D	0	2	2	2	0	1	+1	0	23:10	2:13
J. Oleksiak	D	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	20:02	0:01
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	19:12	0:00
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	2	18:52	0:57
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	5	0	1	+2	0	18:09	2:14
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	2	17:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Grubauer	34	32	2	.941	59:30	Win
J. Daccord	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Kane	LW	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0	18:31	1:29
D. O'Connor	LW	0	1	1	6	0	0	-1	0	17:58	1:08
B. Boeser	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	17:19	2:33
M. Rossi	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	16:23	2:27
E. Pettersson	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	18:07	2:33
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	15:32	0:00
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-3	0	15:26	0:00
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	13:32	1:33
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	13:12	2:32
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	12:26	0:20
C. Douglas	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	-1	0	10:01	0:00
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:24	0:00
Z. Buium	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	-1	0	22:59	1:18
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	24:16	2:42
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	24:14	0:00
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	4	19:52	1:25
V. Mancini	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:16	0:00
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	3	3	0	0	9:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
N. Tolopilo	33	28	5	.848	60:00	Loss
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1B. McMann15:42M. Beniers16:00J. Eberle14:09

Line 2C. Stephenson14:02E. Tolvanen14:57J. McCann13:49

Line 3R. Winterton13:35B. Meyers12:06F. Gaudreau11:12

Line 4S. Wright10:04B. Catton8:56K. Kakko7:59

Pair 1B. Montour19:45R. Lindgren16:26

Pair 2J. Oleksiak17:49R. Evans17:25

Pair 3A. Larsson15:54V. Dunn15:25

VAN

Line 1E. Kane16:32D. O'Connor16:20E. Pettersson14:51

Line 2M. Rossi13:56B. Boeser13:32L. Ohgren14:06

Line 3T. Blueger12:18L. Karlsson11:54J. DeBrusk10:40

Line 4C. Douglas10:01A. Räty9:49M. Sasson8:53

Pair 1M. Pettersson20:52T. Willander16:33

Pair 2F. Hronek19:31Z. Buium21:06

Pair 3V. Mancini15:43E. Pettersson8:38

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 3.2, VAN 3.1	SEA 5, VAN 2
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	SEA 26.2, VAN 27.6	SEA 33, VAN 34
Win chance	SEA 51%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SEA B. Montour	2.5	2	0.56	2	17%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.4	1	0.81	1	29%	1
VAN E. Kane	2.3	4	0.49	1	24%	1
SEA B. McMann	2.2	4	0.55	3	24%	2
VAN B. Boeser	2.2	3	0.67	1	29%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.1	2	0.51	0	24%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.0	1	0.68	3	23%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.9	2	0.52	1	21%	0
VAN L. Ohgren	1.9	1	0.35	0	16%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.8	5	0.61	0	13%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.8	1	0.61	3	22%	1
VAN D. O'Connor	1.8	6	0.42	1	19%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.7	4	0.64	0	9%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.7	3	0.73	0	26%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.6	1	0.48	0	18%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.5	0	0.45	0	14%	0
VAN M. Rossi	1.5	2	0.58	1	21%	1
SEA S. Wright	1.4	2	0.50	1	20%	0
SEA B. Catton	1.3	0	0.29	0	13%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.3	2	0.49	0	17%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.3	2	0.28	0	7%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.2	0	0.32	0	17%	0
SEA B. Meyers	1.2	3	0.28	0	13%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.2	3	0.68	0	19%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.1	0	0.31	0	8%	0
VAN T. Willander	1.1	1	0.42	0	8%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.1	0	0.39	0	15%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	1.1	1	0.35	0	4%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.1	1	0.27	0	12%	0
VAN Z. Buium	0.9	3	0.32	1	6%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.9	1	0.19	0	5%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.9	3	0.21	1	5%	1
VAN C. Douglas	0.7	1	0.11	0	5%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.7	1	0.22	0	4%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.7	1	0.26	0	7%	0
VAN V. Mancini	0.6	0	0.15	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.