Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
SEA1
WPG2
WPG beat SEA 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.30 expected goals to 1.17. WPG outshot SEA 36 to 18. A. Iafallo had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. C. Hellebuyck stopped 17 of 18.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| WPG | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 8:12SEAM. Beniers0.10 xG
- 2nd 9:35WPGM. ScheifelePP0.12 xG
- 3rd 19:33WPGD. DeMelo0.06 xG
Team Stats
SEAWPG
18Shots on goal36
1.17Expected goals2.30
48Shot attempts71
155v5 shots on goal30
0/1Power play1/2
17Hits16
23Blocked shots17
4Penalty minutes2
9Giveaways15
5Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SEA 1.17 xGWPG 2.30 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Beniers | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:10 | 1:09 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:04 | 1:09 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:26 | 0:47 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:18 | 1:09 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:52 | 0:47 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:08 | 0:04 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:54 | 0:47 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:27 | 1:09 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:16 | 0:47 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:12 | 0:00 |
| J. Hayden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:52 | 0:04 |
| M. Stephens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6:45 | 0:04 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 23:24 | 0:00 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:45 | 1:09 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:18 | 0:51 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:13 | 0:04 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15:46 | 0:00 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:00 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 36 | 34 | 2 | .944 | 59:36 | Loss |
| P. Grubauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Scheifele | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:28 | 1:50 |
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:00 | 1:47 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:26 | 1:49 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:00 | 0:44 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:56 | 1:37 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:09 | 0:44 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:50 | 0:00 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:50 | 0:44 |
| R. Kupari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:10 | 0:00 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:31 | 0:03 |
| D. Toninato | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:29 | 0:01 |
| D. Gustafsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:22 | 1:47 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:35 | 0:13 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:44 | 0:03 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:22 | 0:44 |
| V. Heinola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:20 | 0:44 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:11 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 18 | 17 | 1 | .944 | 60:00 | Win |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEA 2.5, WPG 3.3 | SEA 1, WPG 2 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | SEA 26.7, WPG 28.6 | SEA 18, WPG 36 |
| Win chance | WPG 62% | WPG won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.0 | 2 | 1.07 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| WPG N. Ehlers | 2.4 | 6 | 0.85 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.4 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.3 | 2 | 0.61 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.2 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.0 | 4 | 0.75 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 2.0 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.0 | 2 | 0.98 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| SEA O. Bjorkstrand | 1.9 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 1.8 | 1 | 0.79 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 1.8 | 3 | 0.57 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.8 | 3 | 0.57 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.7 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.7 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.6 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.6 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.5 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.5 | 7 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.4 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.1 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.0 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.0 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| WPG V. Heinola | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 0.9 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA J. Hayden | 0.8 | 1 | 0.08 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG R. Kupari | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WPG D. Gustafsson | 0.8 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG D. Toninato | 0.8 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA M. Stephens | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.