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Game Recap
SEA3
WPG0
SEA beat WPG 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.67 expected goals to 2.10. J. Schwartz led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). N. Pionk had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Daccord stopped 32 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| WPG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 2nd 2:28SEAJ. Schwartz0.27 xG
- 3rd 18:20SEAJ. SchwartzEN0.86 xG
- 3rd 18:43SEAJ. EberleEN0.86 xG
Team Stats
SEAWPG
28Shots on goal32
3.67Expected goals2.10
53Shot attempts62
265v5 shots on goal31
0/1Power play0/3
13Hits30
14Blocked shots14
16Penalty minutes12
15Giveaways24
6Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SEA 3.67 xGWPG 2.10 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Schwartz | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 14:42 | 0:24 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 17:26 | 0:00 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:24 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 21:51 | 0:00 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:10 | 0:24 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:39 | 0:00 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:18 | 0:24 |
| R. Winterton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:55 | 0:00 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:31 | 0:00 |
| B. Catton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Nyman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:16 | 0:00 |
| B. Meyers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:23 | 0:00 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 27:17 | 0:00 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:33 | 0:00 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 13:14 | 0:00 |
| C. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:53 | 0:24 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 32 | 32 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| M. Murray | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:42 | 2:44 |
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 22:41 | 2:46 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:14 | 2:40 |
| J. Toews | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 16:26 | 1:38 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:54 | 1:36 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:51 | 1:32 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:10 | 2:28 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:05 | 1:30 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:57 | 0:00 |
| B. Lambert | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:14 | 0:06 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9:41 | 0:00 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 28:13 | 2:33 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 22:36 | 1:36 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:04 | 0:13 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:29 | 0:21 |
| H. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:30 | 0:17 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:13 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 26 | 25 | 1 | .962 | 59:36 | Loss |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
SEA
Line 1C. Stephenson19:22M. Marchment18:46E. Tolvanen16:54
Line 2J. Eberle15:59M. Beniers15:56B. Catton10:09
Line 3J. Schwartz13:07S. Wright12:36J. Nyman9:16
Line 4R. Winterton10:56T. Kartye8:58B. Meyers7:23
Pair 1A. Larsson23:55V. Dunn22:58
Pair 2J. Oleksiak19:00R. Lindgren18:07
WPG
Line 1M. Scheifele20:04K. Connor19:32G. Vilardi18:45
Line 2J. Toews13:19N. Niederreiter14:17G. Nyquist13:08
Line 3V. Namestnikov10:34A. Iafallo10:42B. Lambert10:08
Line 4T. Pearson9:24M. Barron10:33C. Koepke9:17
Pair 1D. DeMelo19:56J. Morrissey23:41
Pair 2L. Stanley19:08N. Pionk19:06
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEA 2.5, WPG 3.3 | SEA 3, WPG 0 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | SEA 24.8, WPG 28.1 | SEA 28, WPG 32 |
| Win chance | WPG 63% | SEA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.1 | 6 | 1.15 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.1 | 1 | 1.04 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 2.0 | 5 | 0.59 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.0 | 2 | 0.44 | 3 | 20% | 2 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 2.0 | 2 | 0.80 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.0 | 4 | 0.75 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 1.9 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.8 | 5 | 0.48 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.7 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA M. Marchment | 1.7 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.7 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.6 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.6 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WPG J. Toews | 1.5 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA J. Nyman | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG T. Pearson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.2 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.2 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA R. Winterton | 1.1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WPG G. Nyquist | 1.1 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG C. Koepke | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG L. Schenn | 1.0 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA C. Fleury | 0.9 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG H. Fleury | 0.9 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 0.9 | 3 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 0.8 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG B. Lambert | 0.8 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA R. Lindgren | 0.8 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA B. Meyers | 0.6 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.