ANA beat SJS 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.61 expected goals to 2.51. ANA outshot SJS 40 to 28. C. Gauthier led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). F. Vatrano had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. L. Dostal stopped 27 of 28.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SJS 2.51 xGANA 3.61 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Granlund | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 22:11 | 2:05 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:41 | 2:05 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:33 | 2:07 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:54 | 2:08 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:06 | 0:47 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:04 | 0:06 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:33 | 0:04 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 12:56 | 0:51 |
| D. Gushchin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:24 | 0:52 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:17 | 0:52 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:16 | 0:08 |
| K. Kostin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Thompson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:17 | 1:42 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23:07 | 1:13 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 22:21 | 0:08 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18:20 | 0:00 |
| H. Thrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:57 | 0:07 |
| J. Rutta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:52 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Blackwood | 39 | 37 | 2 | .949 | 57:50 | Loss |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:44 | 4:48 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:06 | 4:52 |
| M. McTavish | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:54 | 5:01 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:30 | 3:45 |
| T. Terry | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:14 | 4:43 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:52 | 0:32 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:38 | 3:43 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:44 | 3:32 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:33 | 3:42 |
| R. Fabbri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:04 | 0:19 |
| B. Leason | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:36 | 0:12 |
| B. McGinn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:01 | 0:28 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | +1 | 0 | 18:24 | 4:50 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:42 | 3:48 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:04 | 0:35 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:07 | 0:00 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16:43 | 0:00 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | +1 | 0 | 16:01 | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SJS 2.8, ANA 3.3 | SJS 1, ANA 3 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | SJS 27.6, ANA 30.1 | SJS 28, ANA 40 |
| Win chance | ANA 58% | ANA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA F. Vatrano | 2.9 | 6 | 0.74 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.8 | 1 | 0.81 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| ANA T. Zegras | 2.4 | 0 | 0.83 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| SJS F. Zetterlund | 2.3 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| SJS J. Walman | 2.2 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.2 | 4 | 0.86 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| SJS M. Granlund | 2.2 | 5 | 0.91 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 2.1 | 3 | 0.65 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 2.1 | 3 | 0.73 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 2.0 | 4 | 0.41 | 2 | 18% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 1.9 | 2 | 0.70 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.9 | 3 | 0.71 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| ANA R. Fabbri | 1.8 | 0 | 0.66 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.8 | 3 | 0.63 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.7 | 0 | 0.62 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS D. Gushchin | 1.7 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.6 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 1.5 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| ANA C. Fowler | 1.4 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS C. Ceci | 1.4 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS L. Kunin | 1.4 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.4 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.3 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| ANA B. Dumoulin | 1.2 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA B. Leason | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA B. McGinn | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 1.1 | 3 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS J. Rutta | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS K. Kostin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 1.0 | 3 | 0.33 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS N. Sturm | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 0.9 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS H. Thrun | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 12 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.