Game Recap: SJS 3, BOS 6, January 20, 2025

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Game Recap

SJS3

FinalMon, Jan 20, 2025Every game that night

BOS6

BOS beat SJS 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 5.41 expected goals to 2.87. C. Coyle led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). F. Zetterlund had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. J. Korpisalo stopped 25 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	1	2	0	3
BOS	1	1	4	6

1st 9:21BOSV. Lettieri0.06 xG
1st 13:16SJSB. Goodrow0.21 xG
2nd 7:02BOSD. PastrnakPP0.19 xG
2nd 8:52SJSW. Smith0.06 xG
2nd 15:18SJSF. Zetterlund0.29 xG
3rd 8:22BOSC. Coyle0.13 xG
3rd 14:11BOSC. Coyle0.04 xG
3rd 18:45BOSB. MarchandEN0.64 xG
3rd 19:35BOSE. LindholmEN0.57 xG

Team Stats

SJSBOS

28Shots on goal33

2.87Expected goals5.41

61Shot attempts75

265v5 shots on goal29

0/1Power play1/2

31Hits29

21Blocked shots10

4Penalty minutes2

15Giveaways22

3Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 2.87 xGBOS 5.41 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS28 on goal, 3 scored

BOS33 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Smith	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	0	0	16:41	0:39
M. Granlund	C	0	1	1	2	0	3	-1	0	20:16	1:23
F. Zetterlund	LW	1	0	1	6	2	3	0	0	19:12	1:18
B. Goodrow	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	13:57	0:00
T. Dellandrea	C	0	1	1	1	6	0	0	0	13:05	0:00
N. Sturm	C	0	1	1	0	4	0	+1	0	11:10	0:00
M. Celebrini	C	0	0	0	4	1	1	-2	0	19:00	1:21
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	18:59	1:24
W. Eklund	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	17:11	1:21
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-3	0	13:04	0:39
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	10:36	0:00
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	9:54	0:42
J. Walman	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	23:32	0:36
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	1	3	4	-2	0	21:26	0:00
J. Rutta	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	19:19	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	17:53	0:00
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	17:49	0:37
H. Thrun	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	2	15:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	31	27	4	.871	58:35	Loss
A. Georgiev	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Coyle	C	2	1	3	4	2	1	+2	0	17:30	0:00
D. Pastrnak	RW	1	1	2	6	1	0	0	0	20:21	2:30
B. Marchand	LW	1	1	2	3	1	1	+4	2	18:40	2:30
E. Lindholm	C	1	1	2	1	1	0	+2	0	17:05	2:30
M. Poitras	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	+2	0	13:14	0:00
P. Zacha	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	20:07	1:51
V. Lettieri	C	1	0	1	3	8	0	0	0	14:07	0:00
O. Wahlstrom	RW	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	12:06	0:00
M. Geekie	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	19:05	0:39
J. Beecher	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	12:08	0:00
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	8:52	0:00
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	7:02	0:00
M. Lohrei	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	+3	0	23:26	2:30
A. Peeke	D	0	1	1	0	2	2	0	0	22:00	0:00
B. Carlo	D	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	19:06	0:00
J. Oesterle	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	0	17:29	0:00
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	0	21:25	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	14:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Korpisalo	28	25	3	.893	60:00	Win
J. Swayman	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownWill Smith SJS Plays in his hometown1 G, 1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.4, BOS 3.5	SJS 3, BOS 6
Total goals	5.9	9
Shots on goal	SJS 26.3, BOS 31.5	SJS 28, BOS 33
Win chance	BOS 67%	BOS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	4.5	6	1.39	2	48%	1
BOS B. Marchand	2.8	3	0.97	2	33%	1
SJS M. Celebrini	2.8	4	0.71	0	22%	0
BOS M. Geekie	2.1	4	0.66	0	25%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	2.1	1	0.73	2	27%	1
SJS J. Walman	2.1	3	0.43	0	12%	0
BOS P. Zacha	2.0	1	0.84	1	27%	0
SJS F. Zetterlund	2.0	6	0.47	1	18%	1
SJS M. Granlund	1.9	2	0.68	1	15%	0
BOS C. Coyle	1.6	4	0.60	3	23%	2
SJS W. Eklund	1.6	1	0.58	0	17%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.6	1	0.39	0	12%	0
BOS O. Wahlstrom	1.5	2	0.28	1	14%	0
BOS J. Brazeau	1.5	1	0.47	0	21%	0
SJS W. Smith	1.4	2	0.37	2	14%	1
SJS C. Grundstrom	1.4	1	0.20	0	11%	0
SJS L. Kunin	1.3	0	0.29	0	14%	0
BOS V. Lettieri	1.2	3	0.29	1	14%	1
BOS M. Kastelic	1.2	2	0.28	0	12%	0
BOS B. Carlo	1.2	2	0.22	1	6%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.2	0	0.26	1	5%	0
BOS J. Oesterle	1.2	0	0.25	1	4%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.1	2	0.54	1	8%	0
BOS P. Wotherspoon	1.1	0	0.23	0	4%	0
SJS C. Ceci	1.1	1	0.26	0	5%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.1	0	0.27	0	6%	0
BOS M. Poitras	1.1	1	0.43	2	14%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.0	1	0.19	0	5%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.0	1	0.34	0	12%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	1.0	1	0.21	1	10%	1
SJS J. Rutta	0.9	1	0.20	0	5%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.9	1	0.19	1	8%	0
SJS H. Thrun	0.9	2	0.21	0	3%	0
SJS C. Graf	0.9	1	0.30	0	11%	0
SJS N. Sturm	0.8	0	0.19	1	9%	0
BOS J. Beecher	0.7	0	0.24	0	12%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.