Game Recap: SJS 4, BOS 2, March 12, 2026

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Game Recap

SJS4

FinalThu, Mar 12, 2026Every game that night

BOS2

SJS beat BOS 4-2, with the chances close: 3.42 expected goals to 3.37. BOS outshot SJS 41 to 28. D. Pastrnak led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. Zadorov had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. A. Nedeljkovic stopped 39 of 41.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	1	1	2	4
BOS	0	0	2	2

1st 5:57SJSM. Misa0.14 xG
2nd 14:15SJST. ToffoliPP0.34 xG
3rd 3:13SJSC. GrafSH0.16 xG
3rd 8:20SJSW. Eklund0.20 xG
3rd 8:30BOSF. Minten0.06 xG
3rd 19:07BOSD. Pastrnak0.03 xG

Team Stats

SJSBOS

28Shots on goal41

3.42Expected goals3.37

45Shot attempts78

235v5 shots on goal31

1/2Power play0/2

27Hits17

18Blocked shots8

24Penalty minutes14

17Giveaways12

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 3.42 xGBOS 3.37 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS27 on goal, 4 scored

BOS40 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Eklund	LW	1	1	2	3	0	1	+2	0	15:24	0:00
T. Toffoli	C	1	1	2	2	1	0	+1	0	11:29	0:26
M. Misa	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	+1	0	11:16	0:00
M. Celebrini	C	0	1	1	5	0	1	0	0	21:11	0:26
A. Wennberg	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	18:32	0:26
C. Graf	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	17:28	0:00
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	16:49	0:26
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	3	6	2	-1	10	16:27	0:00
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	-2	0	15:29	0:00
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	2	11:31	0:10
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	11:23	0:10
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	1	8	0	+1	0	9:06	0:10
D. Orlov	D	0	1	1	1	3	2	0	0	21:04	0:26
S. Dickinson	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	20:06	0:10
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+2	10	23:08	0:00
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	20:32	0:10
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	18:25	0:00
J. Klingberg	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	16:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	41	39	2	.951	60:00	Win
K. Chauvette	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	1	1	2	4	2	0	0	10	25:00	3:10
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	19:03	2:01
F. Minten	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	17:21	1:39
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	14:10	0:00
M. Geekie	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	20:43	1:59
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	20:25	2:55
P. Zacha	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	19:05	2:21
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	17:24	1:05
A. Steeves	C	0	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	10:44	0:47
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	8:54	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	8:23	0:00
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	7:58	0:00
C. McAvoy	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	-1	2	24:26	2:13
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	2	20:19	1:47
H. Lindholm	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	20:05	0:00
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	17:12	0:03
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	0	15:59	0:00
J. Aspirot	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	15:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	28	24	4	.857	56:46	Loss
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1M. Celebrini18:34W. Smith16:20C. Graf14:48

Line 2A. Wennberg14:29K. Sherwood14:41A. Gaudette14:16

Line 3M. Misa11:16W. Eklund12:38T. Toffoli11:03

Line 4B. Goodrow9:47Z. Ostapchuk9:21R. Reaves8:56

Pair 1V. Desharnais18:23S. Dickinson17:28

Pair 2M. Ferraro17:20S. Mukhamadullin16:41

Pair 3D. Orlov18:10J. Klingberg16:39

BOS

Line 1C. Mittelstadt15:00V. Arvidsson15:07P. Zacha14:42

Line 2E. Lindholm15:28D. Pastrnak18:36M. Geekie16:42

Line 3M. Khusnutdinov12:58F. Minten14:30A. Steeves9:43

Line 4T. Jeannot8:54M. Kastelic7:22S. Kuraly7:47

Pair 1N. Zadorov15:49A. Peeke16:33

Pair 2C. McAvoy19:53J. Aspirot15:27

Pair 3H. Lindholm18:41M. Lohrei17:38

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownAdam Gaudette SJS Plays near home (born in Braintree)2 SOG
HometownWill Smith SJS Plays in his hometown3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.9, BOS 3.6	SJS 4, BOS 2
Total goals	6.6	6
Shots on goal	SJS 27.2, BOS 28.8	SJS 28, BOS 41
Win chance	BOS 61%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	4.0	4	1.54	2	46%	1
SJS M. Celebrini	3.8	5	1.23	1	34%	0
BOS V. Arvidsson	2.6	3	0.69	0	26%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.6	3	0.86	0	27%	0
BOS M. Geekie	2.4	1	0.92	0	35%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.4	2	0.63	2	25%	1
SJS K. Sherwood	2.3	3	0.48	0	22%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	2.0	3	0.81	0	27%	0
SJS W. Eklund	2.0	3	0.53	2	15%	1
BOS C. McAvoy	1.8	2	0.79	1	13%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.7	3	0.75	0	23%	0
BOS H. Lindholm	1.6	4	0.49	0	9%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.6	4	0.55	1	22%	1
SJS C. Graf	1.5	2	0.47	1	18%	1
SJS J. Klingberg	1.4	0	0.44	0	10%	0
SJS M. Misa	1.4	1	0.48	2	16%	1
SJS A. Wennberg	1.3	0	0.57	1	16%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.3	2	0.29	0	16%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.3	3	0.62	1	20%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.3	2	0.30	0	14%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.2	4	0.33	0	8%	0
BOS S. Kuraly	1.2	2	0.28	0	12%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.2	1	0.44	1	8%	0
BOS A. Steeves	1.2	2	0.37	0	16%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.2	2	0.45	0	10%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.2	0	0.24	0	5%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	1.1	0	0.42	1	16%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	1.1	1	0.23	1	3%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	1.1	0	0.32	0	13%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	1.0	1	0.25	0	7%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.0	0	0.23	0	5%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	2	0.15	0	8%	0
BOS J. Aspirot	0.7	2	0.29	0	6%	0
SJS V. Desharnais	0.7	0	0.13	0	2%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.6	1	0.11	0	6%	0
SJS R. Reaves	0.5	1	0.09	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.