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Game Recap
SJS4
BOS6
BOS beat SJS 6-4, and the chances backed it up: 4.65 expected goals to 2.30. BOS outshot SJS 35 to 27. F. Minten led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). K. Sherwood had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. J. Swayman stopped 23 of 27.
Team Stats
SJSBOS
27Shots on goal35
2.30Expected goals4.65
44Shot attempts63
155v5 shots on goal26
2/6Power play1/5
21Hits14
9Blocked shots10
22Penalty minutes24
15Giveaways18
3Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SJS 2.30 xGBOS 4.65 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:38 | 4:50 |
| W. Smith | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:09 | 4:40 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 17:07 | 4:43 |
| I. Stenberg | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:03 | 4:31 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 | 2:58 |
| M. Misa | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:25 | 2:59 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:56 | 2:44 |
| C. Graf | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:43 | 0:00 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 12:30 | 0:08 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:30 | 0:00 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10:51 | 0:00 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:12 | 2:50 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:32 | 2:57 |
| D. Orlov | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 19:24 | 4:55 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:04 | 0:12 |
| S. Dickinson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:59 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 7 | 14:58 | 0:03 |
| N. Allan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 13:57 | 0:05 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Nedeljkovic | 34 | 29 | 5 | .853 | 58:38 | Loss |
| Y. Askarov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Minten | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:15 | 1:58 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:50 | 1:58 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:27 | 4:19 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 15:18 | 1:56 |
| J. Hagens | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 12:17 | 2:20 |
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:24 | 4:51 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:00 | 0:00 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:38 | 4:47 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:46 | 4:53 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8:38 | 0:00 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7:16 | 0:00 |
| M. Poitras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:07 | 0:00 |
| W. Borgen | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 17:49 | 0:00 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 24:51 | 4:53 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:04 | 0:00 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 2 | 18:17 | 0:16 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:05 | 1:36 |
| F. Brunet | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 14:38 | 0:28 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 27 | 23 | 4 | .852 | 60:00 | Win |
| M. DiPietro | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
SJS
Line 1W. Smith12:50M. Celebrini13:29C. Graf13:05
Line 2M. Misa10:18I. Stenberg10:14K. Sherwood10:18
Line 3T. Toffoli9:54M. Marchment11:06T. Dellandrea11:07
Line 4B. Goodrow7:45Z. Ostapchuk6:30A. Gaudette7:22
Pair 1J. Trouba14:43S. Dickinson15:45
Pair 3D. Nurse15:28M. Kesselring10:18
BOS
Line 1D. Pastrnak13:57J. Peterka14:25P. Zacha11:49
Line 2M. Geekie10:13F. Minten12:36M. Khusnutdinov10:35
Line 3E. Lindholm9:52J. Hagens9:57C. Mittelstadt12:04
Line 4T. Jeannot5:50M. Poitras7:07M. Kastelic5:48
Pair 1H. Lindholm15:47C. McAvoy15:00
Pair 3N. Zadorov12:59W. Borgen12:42
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Prop Results
10 of 20 overs hit (50%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | SOG | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.5 | -102 | +100 | 5 | Over |
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.5 | +115 | -120 | 1 | Under |
| BOS J. Peterka | 2.5 | +145 | -180 | 2 | Under |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.5 | +135 | -168 | 0 | Under |
| BOS P. Zacha | 2.5 | +150 | -190 | 1 | Under |
| SJS W. Smith | 2.5 | +105 | -130 | 5 | Over |
| SJS C. Graf | 1.5 | +100 | -130 | 1 | Under |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.5 | -140 | +125 | 1 | Under |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.5 | +116 | – | 3 | Over |
| SJS D. Nurse | 1.5 | -110 | -102 | 1 | Under |
| SJS D. Orlov | 1.5 | +130 | -200 | 2 | Over |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.5 | -150 | +120 | 2 | Over |
| BOS F. Minten | 1.5 | -130 | +110 | 4 | Over |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.5 | +135 | -160 | 4 | Over |
| BOS J. Hagens | 1.5 | -110 | +105 | 3 | Over |
| SJS J. Trouba | 1.5 | -105 | -102 | 0 | Under |
| SJS K. Sherwood | 1.5 | -120 | +108 | 5 | Over |
| SJS M. Marchment | 1.5 | -120 | +110 | 1 | Under |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.5 | +140 | -185 | 0 | Under |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 1.5 | -115 | +100 | 3 | Over |
10 of 35 overs hit (29%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | G | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS A. Gaudette | 0.5 | +650 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.5 | +1100 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| SJS C. Graf | 0.5 | +400 | -600 | 0 | Under |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 0.5 | +500 | -800 | 0 | Under |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 0.5 | +420 | -550 | 1 | Over |
| SJS D. Nurse | 0.5 | +1200 | -2800 | 0 | Under |
| SJS D. Orlov | 0.5 | +800 | -2000 | 1 | Over |
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 0.5 | +125 | -150 | 1 | Over |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 0.5 | +230 | -300 | 0 | Under |
| BOS F. Brunet | 0.5 | +900 | -2500 | 0 | Under |
| BOS F. Minten | 0.5 | +270 | -390 | 1 | Over |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 0.5 | +1200 | -10000 | 0 | Under |
| BOS J. Hagens | 0.5 | +310 | -475 | 1 | Over |
| BOS J. Peterka | 0.5 | +250 | -275 | 0 | Under |
| SJS J. Trouba | 0.5 | +1200 | -2000 | 0 | Under |
| SJS K. Sherwood | 0.5 | +400 | -650 | 1 | Over |
| SJS M. Celebrini | 0.5 | +150 | -190 | 0 | Under |
| BOS M. Geekie | 0.5 | +220 | -240 | 0 | Under |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 0.5 | +800 | -900 | 0 | Under |
| SJS M. Kesselring | 0.5 | +1700 | -3500 | 0 | Under |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 0.5 | +450 | -800 | 1 | Over |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 0.5 | +1000 | -2800 | 0 | Under |
| SJS M. Marchment | 0.5 | +360 | -500 | 0 | Under |
| SJS M. Misa | 0.5 | +475 | -700 | 1 | Over |
| BOS M. Poitras | 0.5 | +550 | -900 | 0 | Under |
| SJS N. Allan | 0.5 | +1900 | -5000 | 0 | Under |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 0.5 | +1400 | -2000 | 0 | Under |
| BOS P. Zacha | 0.5 | +230 | -250 | 0 | Under |
| SJS S. Dickinson | 0.5 | +2200 | -4000 | 0 | Under |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 0.5 | +750 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| BOS T. Jeannot | 0.5 | +950 | -1200 | 0 | Under |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 0.5 | +380 | -600 | 0 | Under |
| BOS W. Borgen | 0.5 | +1700 | -2800 | 1 | Over |
| SJS W. Smith | 0.5 | +230 | -320 | 1 | Over |
| SJS Z. Ostapchuk | 0.5 | +1100 | -2000 | 0 | Under |
10 of 29 overs hit (34%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS A. Gaudette | 0.5 | +350 | – | 0 | Under |
| SJS C. Graf | 0.5 | +285 | -400 | 0 | Under |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 0.5 | -115 | +105 | 0 | Under |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 0.5 | +215 | -275 | 1 | Over |
| SJS D. Nurse | 0.5 | +295 | -425 | 0 | Under |
| SJS D. Orlov | 0.5 | +215 | -220 | 0 | Under |
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 0.5 | -145 | +115 | 0 | Under |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 0.5 | +186 | -220 | 2 | Over |
| BOS F. Brunet | 0.5 | +230 | -275 | 0 | Under |
| BOS F. Minten | 0.5 | +220 | -275 | 1 | Over |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 0.5 | +225 | -260 | 0 | Under |
| BOS J. Hagens | 0.5 | +265 | -290 | 1 | Over |
| BOS J. Peterka | 0.5 | +175 | -185 | 2 | Over |
| SJS J. Trouba | 0.5 | +290 | -400 | 2 | Over |
| SJS K. Sherwood | 0.5 | +300 | -425 | 0 | Under |
| SJS M. Celebrini | 0.5 | -120 | +100 | 1 | Over |
| BOS M. Geekie | 0.5 | +145 | -175 | 1 | Over |
| SJS M. Kesselring | 0.5 | +500 | – | 0 | Under |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 0.5 | +290 | -425 | 0 | Under |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 0.5 | +295 | – | 0 | Under |
| SJS M. Marchment | 0.5 | +230 | -235 | 1 | Over |
| SJS M. Misa | 0.5 | +260 | -340 | 0 | Under |
| BOS M. Poitras | 0.5 | +360 | – | 0 | Under |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 0.5 | +245 | -340 | 0 | Under |
| BOS P. Zacha | 0.5 | +125 | -150 | 0 | Under |
| SJS S. Dickinson | 0.5 | +400 | – | 0 | Under |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 0.5 | +425 | – | 0 | Under |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 0.5 | +350 | -350 | 1 | Over |
| SJS W. Smith | 0.5 | +165 | -165 | 0 | Under |
14 of 29 overs hit (48%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | P | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 1.5 | +136 | -155 | 1 | Under |
| SJS M. Celebrini | 1.5 | +176 | -190 | 1 | Under |
| SJS A. Gaudette | 0.5 | +185 | – | 0 | Under |
| SJS C. Graf | 0.5 | +150 | -190 | 0 | Under |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 0.5 | -160 | +130 | 0 | Under |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 0.5 | +120 | -150 | 2 | Over |
| SJS D. Nurse | 0.5 | +210 | -275 | 0 | Under |
| SJS D. Orlov | 0.5 | +154 | -160 | 1 | Over |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 0.5 | -125 | -105 | 2 | Over |
| BOS F. Brunet | 0.5 | +180 | -200 | 0 | Under |
| BOS F. Minten | 0.5 | +102 | -120 | 2 | Over |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 0.5 | +180 | -180 | 0 | Under |
| BOS J. Hagens | 0.5 | +135 | -145 | 2 | Over |
| BOS J. Peterka | 0.5 | -120 | +105 | 2 | Over |
| SJS J. Trouba | 0.5 | +230 | -250 | 2 | Over |
| SJS K. Sherwood | 0.5 | +160 | -190 | 1 | Over |
| BOS M. Geekie | 0.5 | -145 | +115 | 1 | Over |
| SJS M. Kesselring | 0.5 | +390 | – | 0 | Under |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 0.5 | +165 | -200 | 1 | Over |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 0.5 | +225 | -320 | 0 | Under |
| SJS M. Marchment | 0.5 | +120 | -125 | 1 | Over |
| SJS M. Misa | 0.5 | +165 | -190 | 1 | Over |
| BOS M. Poitras | 0.5 | +200 | – | 0 | Under |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 0.5 | +200 | -250 | 0 | Under |
| BOS P. Zacha | 0.5 | -160 | +135 | 0 | Under |
| SJS S. Dickinson | 0.5 | +330 | – | 0 | Under |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 0.5 | +260 | – | 0 | Under |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 0.5 | +170 | -175 | 1 | Over |
| SJS W. Smith | 0.5 | -132 | +115 | 1 | Over |
8 of 19 overs hit (42%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | PPP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS C. Graf | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 0.5 | +145 | -200 | 0 | Under |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 0.5 | +380 | -900 | 1 | Over |
| SJS D. Orlov | 0.5 | +230 | -325 | 1 | Over |
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 0.5 | +130 | -170 | 0 | Under |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 0.5 | +310 | -375 | 0 | Under |
| BOS F. Brunet | 0.5 | +390 | -1000 | 0 | Under |
| BOS F. Minten | 0.5 | +390 | -450 | 1 | Over |
| BOS J. Hagens | 0.5 | +380 | -900 | 0 | Under |
| BOS J. Peterka | 0.5 | +360 | -750 | 1 | Over |
| SJS J. Trouba | 0.5 | +475 | -1400 | 1 | Over |
| SJS K. Sherwood | 0.5 | +475 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| SJS M. Celebrini | 0.5 | +145 | -175 | 0 | Under |
| BOS M. Geekie | 0.5 | +225 | -280 | 0 | Under |
| SJS M. Marchment | 0.5 | +300 | -400 | 1 | Over |
| SJS M. Misa | 0.5 | +475 | -1400 | 1 | Over |
| BOS P. Zacha | 0.5 | +225 | -290 | 0 | Under |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 0.5 | +390 | -550 | 1 | Over |
| SJS W. Smith | 0.5 | +250 | -295 | 0 | Under |
1 of 2 overs hit (50%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | SV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS A. Nedeljkovic | 24.5 | -118 | +100 | 29 | Over |
| BOS J. Swayman | 23.5 | -122 | -105 | 23 | Under |
3 of 4 overs hit (75%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | BLK | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.5 | -165 | +115 | 2 | Over |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.5 | -110 | -130 | 2 | Over |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.5 | +120 | -165 | 2 | Over |
| BOS W. Borgen | 1.5 | +115 | -165 | 0 | Under |
Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SJS 2.7, BOS 3.4 | SJS 4, BOS 6 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | SJS 27.0, BOS 27.9 | SJS 27, BOS 35 |
| Win chance | BOS 62% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.7 | 1 | 1.09 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.3 | 5 | 1.32 | 1 | 41% | 1 |
| SJS W. Smith | 2.5 | 5 | 0.73 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| BOS J. Peterka | 2.1 | 2 | 0.73 | 2 | 29% | 0 |
| SJS K. Sherwood | 2.0 | 5 | 0.39 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| SJS D. Nurse | 1.9 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.9 | 0 | 0.79 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 1.9 | 3 | 0.42 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| BOS F. Minten | 1.8 | 4 | 0.55 | 2 | 23% | 1 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.8 | 1 | 0.78 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| SJS C. Graf | 1.8 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SJS J. Trouba | 1.8 | 0 | 0.31 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.7 | 2 | 0.67 | 2 | 25% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.7 | 1 | 0.79 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS J. Hagens | 1.7 | 3 | 0.47 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| SJS M. Marchment | 1.7 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| SJS M. Kesselring | 1.6 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS I. Stenberg | 1.5 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS M. Misa | 1.3 | 1 | 0.41 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.3 | 4 | 0.42 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.3 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.2 | 3 | 0.55 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| SJS A. Gaudette | 1.1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS M. Poitras | 1.1 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 1.1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS F. Brunet | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS S. Dickinson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS D. Orlov | 1.0 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.0 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS T. Jeannot | 0.9 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 0.9 | 2 | 0.38 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| BOS W. Borgen | 0.9 | 3 | 0.28 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.9 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS Z. Ostapchuk | 0.8 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS N. Allan | 0.6 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.