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Game Recap
SJS6
BUF2
SJS beat BUF 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.06 expected goals to 1.71. T. Toffoli led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Liljegren had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. A. Georgiev stopped 20 of 22.
Team Stats
SJSBUF
28Shots on goal22
3.06Expected goals1.71
62Shot attempts55
215v5 shots on goal19
0/2Power play1/2
24Hits29
21Blocked shots14
6Penalty minutes6
15Giveaways14
9Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SJS 3.06 xGBUF 1.71 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Eklund | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 0 | 17:24 | 2:08 |
| W. Smith | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:13 | 2:10 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 15:20 | 2:08 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:19 | 1:50 |
| M. Celebrini | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:11 | 2:07 |
| C. Graf | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:17 | 1:52 |
| N. Sturm | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:27 | 0:00 |
| K. Kostin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:59 | 1:52 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 17:07 | 1:53 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:59 | 0:00 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:18 | 0:00 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:16 | 0:00 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +3 | 0 | 22:56 | 2:22 |
| S. Mukhamadullin | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:34 | 0:00 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 17:21 | 1:38 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 26:05 | 0:00 |
| J. Thompson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13:33 | 0:00 |
| M. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:28 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Georgiev | 22 | 20 | 2 | .909 | 60:00 | Win |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Peterka | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:41 | 2:33 |
| T. Thompson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:11 | 2:33 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 13:33 | 2:33 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 19:03 | 2:29 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:43 | 0:40 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:17 | 0:00 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 14:51 | 0:40 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:00 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 12:18 | 0:44 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:30 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:00 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:48 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 26:43 | 2:33 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:04 | 0:00 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:09 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 18:51 | 0:40 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 17:53 | 0:40 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:31 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 27 | 22 | 5 | .815 | 57:25 | Loss |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SJS 2.7, BUF 3.6 | SJS 6, BUF 2 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | SJS 25.5, BUF 31.5 | SJS 28, BUF 22 |
| Win chance | BUF 65% | SJS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.4 | 2 | 1.08 | 1 | 42% | 1 |
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.2 | 3 | 0.83 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.8 | 2 | 0.90 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.8 | 2 | 0.96 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.7 | 2 | 0.98 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.6 | 4 | 0.67 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| SJS J. Walman | 2.4 | 1 | 0.50 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.4 | 5 | 0.69 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 2.2 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 2.1 | 0 | 0.63 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| SJS F. Zetterlund | 1.9 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.9 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 1.7 | 2 | 0.58 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.7 | 3 | 0.67 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.6 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS L. Kunin | 1.5 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.5 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.4 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.2 | 4 | 0.29 | 2 | 7% | 1 |
| SJS J. Thompson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS C. Graf | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.1 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS S. Mukhamadullin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 2 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS M. Vlasic | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS N. Sturm | 0.9 | 3 | 0.23 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.8 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS K. Kostin | 0.7 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.5 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.