Game Recap: SJS 3, BUF 6, March 10, 2026

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Game Recap

SJS3

FinalTue, Mar 10, 2026Every game that night

BUF6

BUF beat SJS 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.02 expected goals to 2.26. J. Quinn scored three for BUF. A. Wennberg had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. A. Lyon stopped 17 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	1	1	1	3
BUF	2	2	2	6

1st 4:12BUFJ. Quinn0.12 xG
1st 5:39BUFA. Tuch0.07 xG
1st 12:54SJSM. Celebrini0.24 xG
2nd 4:59BUFB. Malenstyn0.19 xG
2nd 8:51BUFJ. Zucker0.43 xG
2nd 19:29SJSK. Sherwood0.05 xG
3rd 0:42BUFJ. Quinn0.13 xG
3rd 6:56SJSA. WennbergPP0.17 xG
3rd 17:14BUFJ. QuinnEN0.81 xG

Team Stats

SJSBUF

20Shots on goal26

2.26Expected goals4.02

53Shot attempts55

155v5 shots on goal25

1/3Power play0/1

23Hits21

16Blocked shots14

24Penalty minutes18

15Giveaways13

4Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 2.26 xGBUF 4.02 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS20 on goal, 3 scored

BUF26 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Wennberg	C	1	1	2	4	0	0	-4	0	17:12	3:14
M. Celebrini	C	1	0	1	1	0	3	-1	0	24:25	3:40
W. Smith	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	20:49	3:40
K. Sherwood	LW	1	0	1	1	5	0	-3	0	16:29	0:26
T. Toffoli	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	15:38	3:39
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	17:41	0:00
W. Eklund	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	16:29	0:52
M. Misa	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:06	0:27
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-3	0	12:29	0:26
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	10:55	0:00
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	17	9:03	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	5	9:01	0:00
M. Ferraro	D	0	1	1	0	1	3	0	0	20:46	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-3	2	21:09	2:06
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	19:31	0:26
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	17:59	0:00
J. Klingberg	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	17:56	1:34
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	17:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	25	20	5	.800	58:56	Loss
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Quinn	RW	3	1	4	4	1	0	+4	0	15:09	0:50
R. McLeod	C	0	3	3	1	0	0	+4	0	17:02	0:49
J. Zucker	LW	1	1	2	1	0	1	+4	2	12:56	1:11
A. Tuch	RW	1	0	1	1	0	2	-1	0	16:00	0:46
P. Krebs	C	0	1	1	3	3	2	+1	0	13:58	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	1	0	1	2	5	0	+1	5	11:31	0:00
T. Thompson	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	2	16:41	1:10
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	2	16:25	0:00
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	15:29	0:48
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	15:07	1:14
J. Norris	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:02	1:12
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	0	13:33	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	3	3	2	0	0	+4	0	20:07	1:10
O. Power	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+3	0	22:49	0:00
M. Samuelsson	D	0	1	1	0	1	3	+1	0	22:25	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	21:40	0:50
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	7	15:51	0:00
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	15:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	20	17	3	.850	60:00	Win
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1W. Smith16:05C. Graf16:32M. Celebrini19:41

Line 2A. Wennberg11:50K. Sherwood15:06P. Kurashev11:56

Line 3W. Eklund13:49M. Misa13:39T. Toffoli11:02

Line 4A. Gaudette10:55Z. Ostapchuk9:01B. Goodrow9:03

Pair 1D. Orlov18:06J. Klingberg16:22

Pair 2M. Ferraro19:35S. Mukhamadullin17:10

Pair 3V. Desharnais16:09S. Dickinson18:09

BUF

Line 1J. Doan13:53J. Norris12:50N. Ostlund14:31

Line 2R. McLeod12:27J. Quinn13:30J. Zucker10:56

Line 3Z. Benson15:57T. Thompson15:23A. Tuch12:15

Line 4S. Carrick12:33B. Malenstyn10:22P. Krebs13:51

Pair 1L. Stanley14:50M. Kesselring15:09

Pair 2B. Byram18:25O. Power20:04

Pair 3M. Samuelsson19:38R. Dahlin17:36

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 3.1, BUF 3.9	SJS 3, BUF 6
Total goals	6.9	9
Shots on goal	SJS 27.6, BUF 30.1	SJS 20, BUF 26
Win chance	BUF 62%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS M. Celebrini	3.8	1	1.21	1	35%	1
BUF T. Thompson	3.7	2	1.21	0	45%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.7	1	0.97	1	36%	1
BUF R. Dahlin	2.7	2	1.00	3	21%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.5	2	0.83	1	28%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.4	2	0.75	0	28%	0
SJS K. Sherwood	2.4	1	0.49	1	24%	1
SJS T. Toffoli	2.3	3	0.61	1	26%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.3	1	0.76	2	28%	1
BUF J. Quinn	2.2	4	0.66	4	21%	3
SJS W. Eklund	2.0	2	0.55	0	16%	0
BUF O. Power	1.8	1	0.51	1	10%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.8	0	0.78	0	32%	0
BUF L. Stanley	1.8	0	0.53	0	13%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.5	1	0.79	3	23%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.5	2	0.46	0	14%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.5	0	0.48	1	11%	0
SJS J. Klingberg	1.5	0	0.42	0	10%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.5	2	0.48	0	19%	0
SJS M. Misa	1.4	1	0.50	0	17%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.4	0	0.60	0	14%	0
SJS P. Kurashev	1.4	0	0.43	0	15%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.3	0	0.31	0	17%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.3	4	0.57	2	17%	1
SJS D. Orlov	1.2	0	0.41	0	8%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.2	3	0.53	0	19%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.2	0	0.23	1	5%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	1.2	0	0.22	0	3%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.1	3	0.42	1	13%	0
BUF M. Kesselring	1.1	2	0.19	0	4%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	1.0	1	0.25	0	7%	0
BUF S. Carrick	0.9	0	0.19	0	9%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.8	2	0.17	1	8%	1
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	1	0.15	0	8%	0
SJS V. Desharnais	0.7	1	0.12	0	2%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.7	1	0.11	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.