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Game Recap
SJS2
CAR3
CAR beat SJS 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.73 expected goals to 1.96. L. Kunin led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). P. Kochetkov stopped 21 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| CAR | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
- 1st 4:26CARS. Gostisbehere0.11 xG
- 1st 18:51SJSL. Kunin0.09 xG
- 2nd 11:44SJSL. Kunin0.11 xG
- 3rd 4:11CARB. Burns0.25 xG
- 3rd 17:21CARJ. Chatfield0.04 xG
Team Stats
SJSCAR
23Shots on goal28
1.96Expected goals3.73
49Shot attempts71
165v5 shots on goal24
0/3Power play0/4
34Hits31
19Blocked shots19
8Penalty minutes6
16Giveaways15
8Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SJS 1.96 xGCAR 3.73 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Kunin | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:31 | 1:31 |
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:39 | 3:33 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:21 | 1:57 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:08 | 3:24 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:11 | 1:42 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:59 | 2:41 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:30 | 0:00 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 | 1:00 |
| K. Kostin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13:48 | 2:09 |
| N. Kovalenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:23 | 0:00 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 7:52 | 0:07 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:21 | 0:09 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:44 | 0:12 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 22:46 | 2:56 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:09 | 0:27 |
| J. Rutta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 16:51 | 0:12 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:51 | 1:20 |
| H. Thrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:45 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Vanecek | 28 | 25 | 3 | .893 | 58:15 | Loss |
| A. Georgiev | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:28 | 4:21 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:01 | 4:37 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:40 | 0:05 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:18 | 1:58 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:44 | 4:53 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:23 | 4:37 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:15 | 0:05 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:51 | 2:14 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:10 | 0:06 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:03 | 0:00 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:46 | 1:42 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:06 | 0:00 |
| B. Burns | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 21:48 | 1:55 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 18:08 | 4:37 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:02 | 0:06 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:05 | 0:23 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:28 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 16:12 | 1:41 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 23 | 21 | 2 | .913 | 59:32 | Win |
| D. Tokarski | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SJS 2.4, CAR 4.1 | SJS 2, CAR 3 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | SJS 23.7, CAR 37.6 | SJS 23, CAR 28 |
| Win chance | CAR 75% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR M. Necas | 3.1 | 3 | 1.12 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 3.0 | 3 | 1.01 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.9 | 2 | 1.26 | 1 | 39% | 0 |
| SJS M. Celebrini | 2.6 | 1 | 0.65 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.5 | 0 | 0.93 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.4 | 3 | 0.58 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.3 | 3 | 0.59 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 2.0 | 3 | 0.79 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| SJS F. Zetterlund | 2.0 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 2.0 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.9 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SJS M. Granlund | 1.9 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Drury | 1.8 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.8 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.8 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| SJS J. Walman | 1.8 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.6 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.6 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.6 | 2 | 0.38 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.5 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.5 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.4 | 3 | 0.59 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.4 | 0 | 0.31 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SJS L. Kunin | 1.2 | 2 | 0.29 | 2 | 14% | 2 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.0 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS C. Ceci | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS K. Kostin | 0.9 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 0.9 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS N. Kovalenko | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS N. Sturm | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS J. Rutta | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SJS H. Thrun | 0.5 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 27 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.