Game Recap: SJS 4, CAR 1, December 7, 2025

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Game Recap

SJS4

FinalSun, Dec 7, 2025Every game that night

CAR1

SJS beat CAR 4-1, with the chances close: 3.27 expected goals to 3.55. M. Celebrini led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). A. Nedeljkovic stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	1	2	1	4
CAR	1	0	0	1

1st 0:33SJSC. Graf0.08 xG
1st 13:18CARJ. StaalPP0.11 xG
2nd 7:54SJSJ. Klingberg0.19 xG
2nd 15:14SJSA. WennbergPP0.34 xG
3rd 18:40SJSM. CelebriniEN0.96 xG

Team Stats

SJSCAR

23Shots on goal29

3.27Expected goals3.55

40Shot attempts84

175v5 shots on goal22

1/2Power play1/3

21Hits12

26Blocked shots9

8Penalty minutes6

9Giveaways17

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 3.27 xGCAR 3.55 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS23 on goal, 4 scored

CAR29 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	1	2	3	3	1	1	+3	2	18:12	1:55
A. Wennberg	C	1	1	2	1	0	3	+1	0	18:36	1:35
W. Eklund	LW	0	1	1	3	1	3	0	0	17:03	1:26
C. Graf	RW	1	0	1	1	1	1	+2	0	16:32	0:48
W. Smith	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	15:50	0:48
P. Kurashev	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	12:55	0:19
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	0	15:48	0:00
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	13:23	1:26
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	13:03	0:09
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:45	0:09
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	4	12:16	0:39
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	11:02	0:09
J. Klingberg	D	1	1	2	2	1	3	+1	0	18:43	1:37
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	+2	2	21:01	0:09
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	20:56	0:37
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+2	0	20:30	0:09
N. Leddy	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	19:13	0:00
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	29	28	1	.966	60:00	Win
Y. Askarov	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	1	1	3	2	0	-1	0	17:49	3:44
J. Staal	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	-1	0	13:58	1:00
S. Aho	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	19:45	3:44
S. Jarvis	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	19:10	3:44
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	19:02	3:02
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-2	0	15:38	0:35
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	15:14	0:35
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:59	0:17
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	12:32	0:00
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	12:27	0:00
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	11:49	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:08	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	21:35	3:44
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	22:22	0:18
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	21:47	0:35
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:32	0:00
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	16:59	0:17
M. Reilly	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	2	13:33	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Kochetkov	22	19	3	.864	59:03	Loss
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1M. Celebrini15:24W. Smith15:02C. Graf13:37

Line 2A. Wennberg13:47W. Eklund15:37T. Toffoli11:57

Line 3A. Gaudette12:39B. Goodrow10:46Z. Ostapchuk10:32

Line 4P. Kurashev12:18T. Dellandrea12:47J. Skinner11:37

Pair 1D. Orlov18:22T. Liljegren16:59

Pair 2N. Leddy17:16S. Dickinson16:21

Pair 3J. Klingberg16:36M. Ferraro18:53

CAR

Line 1E. Robinson11:34J. Kotkaniemi12:12T. Hall13:42

Line 2J. Blake15:15L. Stankoven14:24N. Ehlers14:21

Line 3S. Aho14:13A. Svechnikov13:08S. Jarvis13:27

Line 4J. Martinook11:01W. Carrier11:08J. Staal11:41

Pair 1K. Miller20:35S. Walker19:39

Pair 2S. Gostisbehere17:09J. Chatfield18:36

Pair 3M. Reilly13:18A. Nikishin15:07

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDmitry Orlov SJS Faces CAR, his team until May 20250 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.4, CAR 3.6	SJS 4, CAR 1
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	SJS 21.6, CAR 34.8	SJS 23, CAR 29
Win chance	CAR 70%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR S. Jarvis	3.0	0	0.96	0	35%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.9	3	0.85	1	31%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.7	4	0.85	0	29%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.6	3	1.04	0	35%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	2.6	3	0.92	3	27%	1
CAR S. Walker	2.4	1	0.36	0	11%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.4	2	0.68	0	26%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.4	4	0.56	0	21%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.1	2	0.58	0	25%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.1	3	0.74	1	24%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	2.0	1	0.80	1	13%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.9	3	0.65	1	20%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.9	2	0.59	0	22%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.8	2	0.39	0	9%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.7	1	0.49	0	10%	0
SJS J. Skinner	1.6	3	0.45	0	20%	0
CAR M. Reilly	1.6	2	0.23	0	5%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.5	2	0.45	1	18%	1
CAR W. Carrier	1.4	0	0.30	0	15%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.4	0	0.36	0	15%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.4	0	0.43	0	16%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.3	1	0.37	0	18%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.3	1	0.26	0	9%	0
SJS P. Kurashev	1.3	1	0.43	1	15%	0
SJS J. Klingberg	1.3	2	0.39	2	8%	1
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.2	1	0.32	0	12%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.2	1	0.27	0	9%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.2	0	0.39	0	7%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.1	1	0.47	2	15%	1
SJS C. Graf	1.1	1	0.35	1	14%	1
SJS T. Liljegren	0.9	0	0.21	0	5%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	0.8	0	0.11	0	4%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	0.8	1	0.19	0	4%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.7	0	0.14	0	8%	0
SJS N. Leddy	0.5	0	0.19	0	3%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.4	1	0.07	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.