Game Recap: SJS 3, CBJ 2, March 28, 2026

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Game Recap

SJS3

FinalSat, Mar 28, 2026Every game that night

CBJ2

SJS beat CBJ 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.28 expected goals to 2.21. SJS outshot CBJ 36 to 24. I. Chernyshov led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Graf had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. A. Nedeljkovic stopped 22 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	1	0	2	3
CBJ	1	1	0	2

1st 0:31CBJD. Mateychuk0.10 xG
1st 17:17SJSI. Chernyshov0.15 xG
2nd 12:09CBJC. Sillinger0.21 xG
3rd 0:57SJSM. CelebriniPP0.02 xG
3rd 18:35SJSI. Chernyshov0.03 xG

Team Stats

SJSCBJ

36Shots on goal24

4.28Expected goals2.21

65Shot attempts45

335v5 shots on goal22

1/2Power play0/1

16Hits17

8Blocked shots11

2Penalty minutes4

25Giveaways12

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 4.28 xGCBJ 2.21 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS36 on goal, 3 scored

CBJ24 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	1	1	2	6	0	0	+2	0	19:42	1:52
W. Smith	C	0	2	2	3	0	0	+1	0	19:14	1:51
I. Chernyshov	LW	2	0	2	3	1	0	+1	0	15:31	0:00
A. Wennberg	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	16:47	1:07
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	2	6	0	-1	0	16:52	0:58
W. Eklund	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	16:12	0:56
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	15:21	0:00
M. Misa	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:09	0:11
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:48	1:05
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:56	0:00
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	9:41	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	8:58	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	-2	0	22:13	1:59
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+2	0	20:58	0:00
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	+2	0	20:30	0:00
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-2	0	19:37	0:00
N. Leddy	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	17:37	0:12
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	17:23	0:04

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	24	22	2	.917	59:31	Win
L. Brossoit	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Fantilli	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	19:58	2:00
C. Sillinger	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	16:23	0:00
K. Marchenko	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	+2	0	20:50	1:54
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	18:26	2:00
B. Jenner	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	2	17:17	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	2	4	1	-1	0	15:40	0:00
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:34	0:06
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	14:18	1:57
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:37	0:00
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:49	0:00
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	12:41	0:03
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	4:03	0:00
I. Provorov	D	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	25:39	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	14:57	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	30:51	2:00
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	19:09	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	16:52	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	9:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	36	33	3	.917	59:10	Loss
J. Greaves	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1W. Smith17:23M. Celebrini17:21I. Chernyshov15:31

Line 2W. Eklund15:12K. Sherwood14:19A. Wennberg13:47

Line 3T. Toffoli13:14M. Misa14:33C. Graf13:37

Line 4B. Goodrow10:09A. Gaudette9:41Z. Ostapchuk8:58

Pair 1S. Mukhamadullin19:24M. Ferraro19:10

Pair 2D. Orlov19:20V. Desharnais17:23

Pair 3N. Leddy16:49S. Dickinson17:19

CBJ

Line 1C. Coyle14:39C. Sillinger15:24M. Olivier15:15

Line 2K. Marchenko18:02A. Fantilli16:55M. Marchment11:44

Line 3S. Monahan14:11C. Garland12:38D. Voronkov4:03

Line 4I. Lundestrom11:35K. Johnson13:12B. Jenner16:15

Pair 1Z. Werenski27:48D. Fabbro16:11

Pair 2I. Provorov23:48D. Mateychuk14:53

Pair 3E. Gudbranson17:19J. Christiansen9:18

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMason Marchment SJS First game back in Columbus, his team until Apr 20262 SOG
HometownKiefer Sherwood SJS Plays in his hometown2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.7, CBJ 3.5	SJS 3, CBJ 2
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	SJS 25.1, CBJ 30.1	SJS 36, CBJ 24
Win chance	CBJ 63%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS M. Celebrini	3.5	6	1.15	2	34%	1
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.3	3	1.19	0	24%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.8	4	0.95	0	34%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.7	2	0.87	1	31%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.3	3	0.76	2	26%	0
SJS K. Sherwood	2.3	2	0.48	0	23%	0
CBJ M. Marchment	2.2	2	0.82	0	30%	0
SJS W. Eklund	2.1	2	0.62	0	18%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.9	0	0.79	0	24%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	1.9	0	0.55	0	23%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	1.8	2	0.51	0	22%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.8	0	0.68	0	22%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.7	2	0.47	1	15%	1
CBJ M. Olivier	1.6	2	0.46	0	20%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.6	3	0.43	1	10%	0
CBJ C. Garland	1.5	3	0.47	0	18%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.5	1	0.49	0	18%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.4	6	0.45	0	18%	0
SJS M. Misa	1.4	2	0.46	0	17%	0
SJS I. Chernyshov	1.3	3	0.44	2	13%	2
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.3	0	0.40	0	18%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.3	1	0.43	1	10%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.2	0	0.56	1	17%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	1.2	2	0.24	0	4%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.2	0	0.26	0	7%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.2	1	0.28	0	16%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.1	1	0.26	0	6%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	1.0	3	0.26	0	8%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.0	0	0.25	0	7%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	1.0	0	0.25	0	10%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.9	1	0.34	1	10%	1
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	0	0.15	0	8%	0
SJS V. Desharnais	0.7	2	0.14	0	2%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.7	1	0.10	0	6%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.7	0	0.11	0	2%	0
SJS N. Leddy	0.7	0	0.22	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.