Game Recap: SJS 2, CGY 3, February 23, 2025

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Game Recap

SJS2

FinalSun, Feb 23, 2025Every game that night

CGY3

CGY beat SJS 3-2, with the chances close: 2.80 expected goals to 2.71. N. Kadri led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Weegar had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. D. Wolf stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	1	0	1	2
CGY	1	1	1	3

1st 3:41SJSM. Celebrini0.16 xG
1st 7:27CGYN. KadriPP0.05 xG
2nd 3:35CGYK. Rooney0.23 xG
3rd 1:54SJST. Toffoli0.13 xG
3rd 13:28CGYJ. Hanley0.28 xG

Team Stats

SJSCGY

29Shots on goal36

2.71Expected goals2.80

74Shot attempts73

215v5 shots on goal21

0/3Power play1/6

22Hits23

23Blocked shots20

24Penalty minutes8

12Giveaways17

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 2.71 xGCGY 2.80 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS28 on goal, 2 scored

CGY36 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Toffoli	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	+2	0	14:07	3:53
M. Celebrini	C	1	0	1	6	1	2	+1	0	20:11	3:49
W. Eklund	LW	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	14	18:41	3:53
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	2	5	3	0	0	18:11	2:00
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:59	2:03
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	16:14	1:36
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:07	3:51
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	13:02	2:06
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	1	3	3	0	2	11:50	0:05
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	11:18	0:01
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	2	3	2	-1	2	9:26	0:01
W. Duehr	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	8:09	0:00
J. Walman	D	0	1	1	2	1	3	0	2	26:11	4:12
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	13:27	0:10
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	26:44	0:16
H. Thrun	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	4	18:54	0:00
J. Thompson	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	17:35	0:43
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	11:21	1:01

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Georgiev	36	33	3	.917	59:04	Loss
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kadri	C	1	1	2	6	2	0	0	0	22:22	6:47
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	23:19	6:54
M. Frost	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	2	15:46	5:39
K. Rooney	C	1	0	1	2	2	1	+1	0	9:32	0:00
M. Pospisil	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	8:53	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	1	1	4	2	0	+1	0	8:17	0:00
M. Coronato	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	18:41	6:47
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	2	17:03	1:57
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	16:29	1:24
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	16:05	2:33
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:37	1:47
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	9:19	1:01
M. Weegar	D	0	1	1	6	1	2	+1	2	24:02	6:48
J. Hanley	D	1	0	1	3	1	3	+1	0	17:08	0:45
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	-1	0	25:47	3:53
I. Solovyov	D	0	0	0	2	5	2	-1	0	19:24	0:00
J. Bean	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:28	0:50
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	29	27	2	.931	60:00	Win
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamTyler Toffoli SJS Faces CGY, his team until Apr 20231 G, 1 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.6, CGY 3.4	SJS 2, CGY 3
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	SJS 26.1, CGY 32.8	SJS 29, CGY 36
Win chance	CGY 63%	CGY won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.9	6	1.09	2	35%	1
SJS M. Celebrini	3.2	6	0.83	1	27%	1
SJS T. Toffoli	2.8	3	0.69	2	29%	1
CGY M. Coronato	2.8	2	0.71	0	25%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.8	1	0.74	0	29%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.7	6	0.76	1	15%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.5	0	0.58	0	21%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	2.3	2	1.04	1	30%	0
SJS J. Walman	2.3	2	0.45	1	12%	0
CGY R. Andersson	2.2	1	0.57	0	13%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	2.1	1	0.70	0	29%	0
CGY M. Frost	2.1	1	0.67	1	23%	0
CGY J. Farabee	2.1	1	0.55	0	22%	0
SJS F. Zetterlund	2.0	2	0.47	0	19%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.9	0	0.68	1	19%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.8	3	0.57	0	21%	0
SJS W. Smith	1.6	2	0.52	0	17%	0
SJS L. Kunin	1.4	2	0.30	0	15%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.4	0	0.38	1	11%	0
CGY J. Bean	1.3	1	0.29	0	8%	0
CGY I. Solovyov	1.3	2	0.34	0	5%	0
SJS J. Thompson	1.2	3	0.22	0	6%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.2	0	0.22	0	5%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.2	2	0.25	0	6%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.1	1	0.31	0	13%	0
CGY B. Pachal	1.0	0	0.18	0	5%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.0	0	0.38	0	13%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	1.0	1	0.24	0	12%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.9	4	0.14	1	9%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.9	3	0.21	1	4%	1
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	0.9	1	0.14	1	4%	0
SJS W. Duehr	0.9	0	0.21	0	11%	0
SJS N. Sturm	0.8	1	0.21	0	9%	0
SJS H. Thrun	0.8	1	0.19	0	4%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.8	2	0.18	0	7%	0
CGY K. Rooney	0.7	2	0.13	1	7%	1

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.