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Game Recap
SJS2
CGY5
CGY beat SJS 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.49 expected goals to 2.11. Y. Sharangovich led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). T. Toffoli had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. D. Wolf stopped 28 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| CGY | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
- 1st 3:09SJST. Toffoli0.24 xG
- 1st 9:24CGYM. Weegar0.06 xG
- 1st 14:15CGYA. Klapka0.16 xG
- 2nd 4:20SJSJ. Rutta0.12 xG
- 3rd 1:30CGYY. Sharangovich0.19 xG
- 3rd 10:55CGYM. Coronato0.18 xG
- 3rd 17:16CGYY. SharangovichEN0.52 xG
Team Stats
SJSCGY
30Shots on goal30
2.11Expected goals3.49
53Shot attempts67
235v5 shots on goal25
0/2Power play0/2
21Hits34
18Blocked shots12
2Penalty minutes4
17Giveaways11
7Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SJS 2.11 xGCGY 3.49 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Toffoli | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:34 | 2:42 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:17 | 2:42 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:22 | 0:00 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:51 | 2:42 |
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 19:19 | 2:42 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 17:41 | 1:43 |
| N. Kovalenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:28 | 0:31 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:58 | 0:31 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:59 | 0:00 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:06 | 0:00 |
| T. Bordeleau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:38 | 0:31 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:11 | 0:00 |
| J. Rutta | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 21:14 | 0:00 |
| L. Carlsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:42 | 1:29 |
| H. Thrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 21:46 | 0:01 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 2 | 19:48 | 0:31 |
| J. Thompson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 0 | 15:54 | 0:00 |
| M. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:31 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Romanov | 29 | 25 | 4 | .862 | 59:46 | Loss |
| A. Georgiev | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:57 | 2:42 |
| A. Klapka | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:20 | 0:00 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:57 | 1:22 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:31 | 1:20 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:14 | 3:25 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:21 | 2:41 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:10 | 1:14 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:05 | 2:42 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:08 | 0:00 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:00 | 0:34 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:02 | 0:00 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:52 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 25:33 | 2:48 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:25 | 1:12 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 12:49 | 0:00 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:52 | 0:00 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:35 | 0:00 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:56 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SJS 2.8, CGY 3.8 | SJS 2, CGY 5 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | SJS 26.3, CGY 33.8 | SJS 30, CGY 30 |
| Win chance | CGY 65% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.8 | 4 | 1.10 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.2 | 2 | 0.85 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.9 | 7 | 0.70 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.7 | 4 | 0.73 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.6 | 5 | 0.68 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.6 | 3 | 0.79 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.5 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 2.3 | 1 | 1.01 | 2 | 29% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 2.1 | 3 | 0.75 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 2.1 | 3 | 0.56 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.9 | 1 | 0.66 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| CGY M. Frost | 1.9 | 0 | 0.58 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 1.9 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CGY A. Klapka | 1.9 | 1 | 0.38 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.7 | 4 | 0.58 | 2 | 25% | 2 |
| SJS T. Bordeleau | 1.7 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS C. Grundstrom | 1.6 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.6 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.6 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS L. Carlsson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS J. Thompson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.2 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS N. Gregor | 1.2 | 0 | 0.17 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS J. Rutta | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| SJS H. Thrun | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS N. Kovalenko | 0.9 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS M. Vlasic | 0.8 | 3 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SJS Z. Ostapchuk | 0.6 | 2 | 0.10 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.