Game Recap: SJS 2, CGY 3, January 31, 2026

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Game Recap

SJS2

FinalSat, Jan 31, 2026Every game that night

CGY3

CGY beat SJS 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.47 expected goals to 3.54. CGY outshot SJS 42 to 25. M. Frost led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). Y. Sharangovich had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. D. Wolf stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	1	1	0	2
CGY	1	1	1	3

1st 3:11SJSW. SmithPP0.18 xG
1st 14:44CGYM. FrostPP0.42 xG
2nd 1:21SJSA. Gaudette0.26 xG
2nd 6:59CGYM. Gridin0.17 xG
3rd 6:53CGYJ. FarabeeSH0.13 xG

Team Stats

SJSCGY

25Shots on goal42

3.54Expected goals4.47

49Shot attempts82

155v5 shots on goal30

1/4Power play1/6

14Hits21

19Blocked shots18

22Penalty minutes10

18Giveaways9

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 3.54 xGCGY 4.47 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS21 on goal, 2 scored

CGY42 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Wennberg	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	-1	0	24:30	5:34
W. Smith	C	1	0	1	5	1	1	-1	0	19:03	5:18
W. Eklund	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	14:35	0:52
A. Gaudette	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	10:09	0:00
M. Misa	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	10:02	0:38
M. Celebrini	C	0	0	0	5	2	0	-1	0	23:40	5:47
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:09	1:06
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	18:08	5:17
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	13:33	1:01
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	4	11:38	0:07
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	10	10:23	0:00
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	6:33	0:00
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	0	2	19:37	0:00
J. Klingberg	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	2	19:36	5:32
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	19:24	0:00
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	19:01	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	16:33	0:53
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	1	1	5	0	0	15:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	42	39	3	.929	57:38	Loss
Y. Askarov	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Frost	C	1	1	2	5	2	0	+1	0	17:13	5:52
M. Backlund	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	20:40	5:30
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	18:49	4:50
M. Coronato	RW	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	0	16:09	5:42
J. Farabee	LW	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	15:35	0:50
M. Gridin	RW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	15:20	3:51
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	2	18:07	6:08
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	6	0	1	-1	0	17:12	4:16
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	13:23	1:23
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	12:54	4:12
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	2	9:15	0:01
M. Pospisil	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	7:24	0:05
M. Weegar	D	0	1	1	4	1	4	0	0	26:17	7:35
K. Bahl	D	0	1	1	0	2	3	+1	0	24:12	4:12
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	2	20:01	0:55
Y. Kuznetsov	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	18:50	0:53
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	11:41	0:00
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	2	10:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	25	23	2	.920	59:51	Win
D. Cooley	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1M. Celebrini13:35W. Smith11:30C. Graf12:58

Line 2T. Toffoli10:54A. Wennberg11:02P. Kurashev9:50

Line 3A. Gaudette10:06M. Misa9:01W. Eklund9:56

Line 4B. Goodrow6:57Z. Ostapchuk8:50R. Reaves6:24

Pair 1D. Orlov15:17J. Klingberg13:53

Pair 2M. Ferraro14:02S. Mukhamadullin12:35

Pair 3S. Dickinson14:59V. Desharnais10:46

CGY

Line 1M. Backlund10:39Y. Sharangovich10:26M. Coronato10:27

Line 2M. Frost10:21M. Gridin11:17J. Huberdeau11:15

Line 3N. Kadri11:50J. Farabee10:06A. Klapka11:06

Line 4R. Lomberg8:26M. Pospisil6:31C. Zary8:42

Pair 1Z. Whitecloud15:18K. Bahl15:14

Pair 2M. Weegar14:46Y. Kuznetsov14:25

Pair 3J. Hanley11:12B. Pachal10:34

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDevin Cooley CGY Faces SJS, his team until Apr 20240 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 3.0, CGY 3.4	SJS 2, CGY 3
Total goals	6.4	5
Shots on goal	SJS 26.3, CGY 30.9	SJS 25, CGY 42
Win chance	CGY 58%	CGY won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS M. Celebrini	3.5	5	1.18	0	32%	0
CGY N. Kadri	2.9	4	0.84	0	30%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.7	3	0.68	1	23%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.4	5	0.64	1	26%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.3	2	0.61	0	26%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.2	5	0.78	1	25%	1
CGY Y. Sharangovich	2.2	6	0.64	0	28%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.2	4	0.54	1	12%	0
SJS W. Eklund	2.1	1	0.61	1	18%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.9	1	0.55	0	21%	0
CGY J. Farabee	1.9	1	0.43	1	19%	1
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.8	0	0.72	1	23%	0
CGY M. Gridin	1.7	2	0.41	1	16%	1
CGY M. Frost	1.6	5	0.49	2	17%	1
CGY M. Pospisil	1.6	0	0.34	0	10%	0
SJS J. Klingberg	1.5	2	0.45	0	11%	0
SJS M. Misa	1.4	1	0.40	1	13%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.4	1	0.51	0	20%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.3	2	0.31	1	17%	1
SJS A. Wennberg	1.3	2	0.57	1	16%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.3	2	0.34	0	16%	0
SJS P. Kurashev	1.2	0	0.39	0	13%	0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov	1.2	1	0.26	0	9%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.1	2	0.22	0	5%	0
CGY Z. Whitecloud	1.1	1	0.28	0	8%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.1	0	0.32	1	6%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.1	1	0.36	0	6%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	1.1	3	0.21	0	10%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	0.9	0	0.22	0	3%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	0	0.16	0	8%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	0.8	1	0.21	0	4%	0
CGY B. Pachal	0.7	3	0.17	0	4%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.7	0	0.11	0	7%	0
SJS V. Desharnais	0.6	0	0.11	0	2%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.6	1	0.14	0	3%	0
SJS R. Reaves	0.5	0	0.11	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.