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Game Recap
SJS2
FinalThu, Oct 17, 2024Every game that night
CHI4

CHI beat SJS 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.82 expected goals to 2.47. M. Granlund led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). P. Mrazek stopped 20 of 22.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
SJS0112
CHI2114
  1. 1st 4:20CHIT. Hall0.10 xG
  2. 1st 19:11CHIT. BertuzziPP0.10 xG
  3. 2nd 0:43CHIN. FolignoPP0.11 xG
  4. 2nd 18:17SJST. Toffoli0.39 xG
  5. 3rd 2:19CHIJ. Dickinson0.10 xG
  6. 3rd 2:52SJSF. Zetterlund0.14 xG

Team Stats

SJSCHI
22Shots on goal27
2.47Expected goals3.82
54Shot attempts67
125v5 shots on goal13
0/3Power play2/7
22Hits13
18Blocked shots18
14Penalty minutes6
8Giveaways6
6Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 2.47 xGCHI 3.82 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdCHI goal, 4:20CHI goal, 19:11CHI goal, 0:43SJS goal, 18:17CHI goal, 2:19SJS goal, 2:52

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS20 on goal, 2 scored
CHI27 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. GranlundC022400+2019:572:27
W. EklundLW022200+2019:022:28
T. ToffoliC101101+2015:312:28
F. ZetterlundLW1013100215:031:33
W. SmithC000100-1019:091:32
A. WennbergC000101-1017:482:30
L. KuninC0003410017:111:34
B. GoodrowC0001300214:140:00
T. DellandreaC000010-1012:200:01
K. KostinC000010-1011:151:33
N. SturmC000031008:500:00
C. GrundstromRW000040008:370:00
J. WalmanD0002130225:412:30
C. CeciD000213-1023:460:04
J. RuttaD000002+1417:080:01
M. FerraroD000212+1217:020:04
H. ThrunD000002-1016:151:35
M. BenningD0000220213:100:05
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
V. Vanecek27234.85256:11Loss
M. Blackwood000–0:00

CHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. BedardC022300+1021:536:09
T. TeravainenC0221000019:526:13
N. FolignoLW1014100219:106:14
T. BertuzziLW101100-1018:376:11
J. DickinsonC101111+1015:170:00
J. AndersonRW011012+1014:070:00
T. HallLW1013130013:461:06
I. MikheyevRW000301+1015:010:00
P. KurashevC000000-1012:431:04
P. MaroonLW000031-1212:001:01
C. SmithC000000-1010:171:03
L. ReichelLW000111-108:310:00
T. BrodieD011102+1016:240:00
S. JonesD0005020026:416:12
A. VlasicD0001120021:491:02
W. KaiserD000002+1017:410:00
C. MurphyD000221-1216:300:00
N. AllanD000120-1013:450:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
P. Mrazek22202.90959:56Win
A. Soderblom000–0:00

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreSJS 2.8, CHI 3.2SJS 2, CHI 4
Total goals6.06
Shots on goalSJS 27.7, CHI 31.0SJS 22, CHI 27
Win chanceCHI 56%CHI won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
CHI C. Bedard3.031.06229%0
CHI S. Jones2.850.68013%0
SJS T. Toffoli2.710.74131%1
SJS F. Zetterlund2.530.58124%1
CHI T. Hall2.430.76126%1
CHI T. Bertuzzi2.310.76128%1
SJS M. Granlund2.240.87218%0
CHI T. Teravainen2.210.89229%0
CHI N. Foligno2.040.60121%1
SJS W. Eklund1.920.68222%0
SJS J. Walman1.820.33012%0
CHI I. Mikheyev1.730.45020%0
CHI P. Kurashev1.600.66020%0
CHI C. Smith1.500.34015%0
CHI J. Dickinson1.410.43119%1
SJS L. Kunin1.430.32017%0
CHI L. Reichel1.310.37014%0
SJS C. Grundstrom1.200.21012%0
SJS M. Ferraro1.220.2404%0
CHI C. Murphy1.220.2207%0
CHI J. Anderson1.100.35114%0
SJS K. Kostin1.100.43020%0
SJS T. Dellandrea1.100.24010%0
SJS C. Ceci1.120.2905%0
CHI A. Vlasic1.110.3005%0
SJS N. Sturm1.100.26012%0
SJS J. Rutta1.000.3006%0
SJS A. Wennberg1.010.37014%0
SJS B. Goodrow1.010.30013%0
CHI W. Kaiser0.900.3403%0
CHI P. Maroon0.800.29010%0
CHI T. Brodie0.810.3513%0
SJS H. Thrun0.700.2104%0
SJS M. Benning0.700.2001%0

Shots on goal: 18 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.