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Game Recap
SJS3
CHI6
CHI beat SJS 6-3, with the chances close: 2.70 expected goals to 3.05. SJS outshot CHI 27 to 17. R. Donato led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). S. Knight stopped 24 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| CHI | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
- 1st 7:00CHIC. BedardPP0.10 xG
- 2nd 2:14CHIC. Murphy0.02 xG
- 2nd 9:35CHIR. Donato0.07 xG
- 2nd 10:36CHIS. Rinzel0.16 xG
- 2nd 12:05SJSW. Smith0.15 xG
- 2nd 12:41CHII. Mikheyev0.30 xG
- 2nd 15:11SJSM. Celebrini0.15 xG
- 3rd 2:13SJSS. Mukhamadullin0.13 xG
- 3rd 14:41CHIR. Donato0.29 xG
Team Stats
SJSCHI
27Shots on goal17
3.05Expected goals2.70
51Shot attempts35
215v5 shots on goal12
0/4Power play1/4
36Hits14
6Blocked shots9
6Penalty minutes8
18Giveaways13
4Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SJS 3.05 xGCHI 2.70 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Celebrini | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:07 | 6:26 |
| W. Smith | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:12 | 5:59 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:29 | 5:44 |
| C. Graf | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:18 | 0:00 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:06 | 2:27 |
| P. Kurashev | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:55 | 2:00 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 21:27 | 5:25 |
| M. Misa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 11:31 | 1:08 |
| P. Regenda | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:23 | 2:14 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:48 | 0:01 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:26 | 0:25 |
| R. Reaves | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 5:38 | 0:00 |
| V. Desharnais | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:57 | 0:00 |
| S. Mukhamadullin | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:18 | 0:04 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 24:27 | 5:28 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:15 | 0:00 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:53 | 2:39 |
| S. Dickinson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:24 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Askarov | 10 | 6 | 4 | .600 | 30:36 | Loss |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 7 | 5 | 2 | .714 | 29:24 |
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +4 | 0 | 16:14 | 0:13 |
| R. Donato | C | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 0 | 13:53 | 1:59 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 16:55 | 0:15 |
| C. Bedard | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:42 | 5:40 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:30 | 5:30 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 14:33 | 5:19 |
| F. Nazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:29 | 5:29 |
| R. Greene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:52 | 1:38 |
| L. Slaggert | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:09 | 0:00 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:42 | 1:35 |
| O. Moore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:17 | 1:46 |
| C. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:47 | 0:00 |
| C. Murphy | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:03 | 0:00 |
| S. Rinzel | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:38 | 5:07 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 13:04 | 2:12 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:18 | 0:00 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:49 | 0:07 |
| L. Crevier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:13 | 0:20 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Knight | 27 | 24 | 3 | .889 | 59:52 | Win |
| A. Soderblom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
SJS
Line 1W. Smith15:01M. Celebrini15:54T. Toffoli13:37
Line 2A. Wennberg12:45W. Eklund12:21C. Graf13:08
Line 3P. Kurashev10:35M. Misa10:23P. Regenda8:37
Line 4R. Reaves5:38B. Goodrow6:15A. Gaudette9:01
Pair 1D. Orlov18:59T. Liljegren17:14
Pair 2S. Dickinson13:58M. Ferraro15:07
Pair 3V. Desharnais10:43S. Mukhamadullin12:54
CHI
Line 1T. Bertuzzi14:00C. Bedard14:53F. Nazar12:58
Line 2J. Dickinson12:57I. Mikheyev12:32R. Donato11:46
Line 3A. Burakovsky10:07R. Greene9:31T. Teravainen6:53
Line 4L. Slaggert9:29C. Dach8:39O. Moore9:23
Pair 2A. Vlasic15:15L. Crevier16:18
Pair 3C. Murphy12:41M. Grzelcyk10:52
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SJS 3.1, CHI 3.3 | SJS 3, CHI 6 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | SJS 26.6, CHI 27.4 | SJS 27, CHI 17 |
| Win chance | CHI 53% | CHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.7 | 5 | 1.28 | 2 | 34% | 1 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 3.2 | 1 | 1.16 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.5 | 3 | 0.69 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 2.5 | 0 | 0.88 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 2.4 | 3 | 0.85 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| CHI F. Nazar | 2.4 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 2.1 | 0 | 0.62 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 2.0 | 3 | 0.55 | 4 | 26% | 1 |
| SJS P. Regenda | 1.9 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 1.6 | 2 | 0.53 | 4 | 22% | 2 |
| CHI A. Burakovsky | 1.5 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CHI L. Crevier | 1.5 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CHI S. Rinzel | 1.5 | 3 | 0.36 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.4 | 0 | 0.70 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| SJS C. Graf | 1.4 | 0 | 0.55 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| CHI R. Greene | 1.4 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS M. Misa | 1.4 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CHI J. Dickinson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.38 | 2 | 18% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.4 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SJS A. Gaudette | 1.3 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CHI O. Moore | 1.3 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS P. Kurashev | 1.2 | 0 | 0.41 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.2 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 2 | 6% | 1 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.1 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS D. Orlov | 1.1 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CHI M. Grzelcyk | 1.0 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| CHI L. Slaggert | 1.0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS S. Dickinson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI C. Dach | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS S. Mukhamadullin | 0.8 | 3 | 0.23 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS V. Desharnais | 0.6 | 1 | 0.13 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| SJS R. Reaves | 0.5 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.