Game Recap: SJS 3, COL 7, March 6, 2025

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Game Recap

SJS3

FinalThu, Mar 6, 2025Every game that night

COL7

COL beat SJS 7-3, and the chances backed it up: 5.24 expected goals to 2.89. C. Makar led the way with 6 points (2 G, 4 A). F. Zetterlund had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. M. Blackwood stopped 31 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	1	0	2	3
COL	3	2	2	7

1st 4:19COLJ. KivirantaSH0.09 xG
1st 6:43COLC. MakarPP0.10 xG
1st 10:08SJSF. ZetterlundPP0.39 xG
1st 19:57COLJ. DrouinPP0.17 xG
2nd 0:40COLM. NecasPP0.06 xG
2nd 10:54COLN. MacKinnon0.48 xG
3rd 5:21COLN. MacKinnon0.65 xG
3rd 8:10SJSM. CelebriniPP0.16 xG
3rd 9:00COLC. Makar0.03 xG
3rd 17:24SJSW. Eklund0.27 xG

Team Stats

SJSCOL

34Shots on goal32

2.89Expected goals5.24

52Shot attempts66

225v5 shots on goal22

2/5Power play3/4

20Hits11

13Blocked shots9

8Penalty minutes10

17Giveaways14

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 2.89 xGCOL 5.24 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS32 on goal, 3 scored

COL31 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Eklund	LW	1	1	2	5	1	0	0	0	17:26	4:49
W. Smith	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-2	0	19:50	4:51
M. Celebrini	C	1	0	1	5	0	0	-3	2	19:23	4:55
F. Zetterlund	LW	1	0	1	7	4	1	-1	0	18:57	4:39
C. Graf	RW	0	1	1	1	0	2	-1	0	18:42	4:41
A. Wennberg	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	18:03	4:57
T. Toffoli	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	15:00	4:44
K. Kostin	C	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	13:43	4:31
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	12:32	0:06
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	4	12:27	0:08
N. Kovalenko	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:19	4:23
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	11:05	0:05
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	20:30	4:22
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	20:25	0:18
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	2	20:22	0:41
M. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	15:48	0:00
J. Thompson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:53	0:00
J. Schuldt	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	14:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Georgiev	32	25	7	.781	59:45	Loss
G. Romanov	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	2	3	5	8	0	0	+3	0	18:03	3:17
M. Necas	C	1	1	2	3	0	0	+3	2	16:38	3:26
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	2	2	2	1	0	+2	0	16:36	2:10
J. Drouin	LW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	0	13:49	3:14
J. Kiviranta	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	2	13:42	0:00
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:34	2:25
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	0	14:13	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	13:17	0:00
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:14	0:00
J. Vesey	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	13:09	0:00
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:36	1:18
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	4	4	1	0	0	11:54	1:09
C. Makar	D	2	4	6	3	0	0	+3	0	19:10	2:43
D. Toews	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+2	2	20:59	1:54
J. Manson	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	2	19:33	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	21:37	0:00
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	21:19	1:19
K. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	2	14:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	34	31	3	.912	59:41	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMackenzie Blackwood COL Faces SJS, his team until Dec 202431 saves on 34, the win

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.4, COL 3.8	SJS 3, COL 7
Total goals	6.3	10
Shots on goal	SJS 24.2, COL 32.9	SJS 34, COL 32
Win chance	COL 72%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.3	8	1.67	5	42%	2
COL C. Makar	3.4	3	1.33	6	29%	2
COL M. Necas	3.0	3	1.10	2	32%	1
SJS M. Celebrini	3.0	5	0.74	1	25%	1
COL V. Nichushkin	2.8	1	0.96	0	37%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.5	2	0.94	2	38%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.5	3	0.62	1	28%	0
COL D. Toews	2.2	1	0.75	1	15%	0
SJS F. Zetterlund	1.8	7	0.43	1	18%	1
COL J. Drury	1.8	0	0.39	0	14%	0
COL R. Colton	1.7	4	0.47	0	22%	0
SJS W. Smith	1.7	2	0.56	1	18%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.6	5	0.62	2	18%	1
COL J. Manson	1.6	1	0.39	1	9%	0
COL J. Drouin	1.5	2	0.78	2	19%	1
COL S. Girard	1.4	1	0.43	0	7%	0
SJS C. Grundstrom	1.3	1	0.19	0	11%	0
COL C. Mittelstadt	1.3	1	0.63	0	18%	0
COL J. Vesey	1.3	0	0.34	0	15%	0
COL K. Middleton	1.2	1	0.13	0	3%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.2	0	0.33	0	14%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.1	1	0.27	0	7%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.1	1	0.27	0	11%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.1	1	0.22	0	5%	0
SJS J. Thompson	1.1	1	0.19	0	6%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.0	1	0.27	1	10%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.0	1	0.27	1	13%	1
SJS A. Wennberg	1.0	0	0.40	1	13%	0
COL R. Lindgren	1.0	2	0.38	0	5%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	1.0	0	0.22	0	11%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.9	0	0.19	0	8%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	0.9	1	0.30	0	5%	0
SJS M. Vlasic	0.8	0	0.18	0	4%	0
SJS N. Kovalenko	0.8	0	0.31	0	11%	0
SJS K. Kostin	0.7	3	0.26	0	12%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.