Game Recap: SJS 0, COL 6, November 26, 2025

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Game Recap

SJS0

FinalWed, Nov 26, 2025Every game that night

COL6

COL beat SJS 6-0, and the chances backed it up: 4.19 expected goals to 2.05. COL outshot SJS 42 to 26. N. MacKinnon led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). V. Olofsson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. M. Blackwood stopped 26 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	0	0	0	0
COL	2	3	1	6

1st 3:39COLR. Colton0.12 xG
1st 19:07COLN. MacKinnonPP0.05 xG
2nd 3:44COLS. Malinski0.05 xG
2nd 4:51COLJ. Manson0.05 xG
2nd 5:00COLJ. Kiviranta0.17 xG
3rd 16:15COLA. Lehkonen0.06 xG

Team Stats

SJSCOL

26Shots on goal42

2.05Expected goals4.19

61Shot attempts81

185v5 shots on goal31

0/4Power play1/4

22Hits10

18Blocked shots22

8Penalty minutes8

13Giveaways12

5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 2.05 xGCOL 4.19 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS25 on goal, 0 scored

COL39 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Graf	RW	0	0	1	-1	0	21:08	2:30
M. Celebrini	C	3	1	0	-2	0	20:47	5:29
W. Eklund	LW	1	0	1	-2	2	20:26	5:35
W. Smith	C	4	0	0	-2	0	18:06	5:29
A. Wennberg	C	3	1	0	-1	0	17:28	6:15
T. Dellandrea	C	2	4	1	-1	2	16:58	0:00
P. Kurashev	C	1	1	1	-1	0	12:47	2:31
B. Goodrow	C	2	2	3	-1	0	12:46	0:00
A. Gaudette	RW	0	2	0	-1	2	12:12	1:37
T. Toffoli	C	1	0	1	-1	0	11:55	2:24
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	4	0	-1	0	9:27	0:00
R. Reaves	RW	2	1	0	-1	0	7:04	0:00
D. Orlov	D	2	0	0	-2	0	22:45	6:17
T. Liljegren	D	1	0	2	-2	0	20:35	1:43
M. Ferraro	D	0	3	4	-1	0	18:29	0:10
S. Mukhamadullin	D	2	0	0	-1	0	17:01	0:00
S. Dickinson	D	1	1	1	-2	0	16:55	0:00
V. Desharnais	D	1	2	3	-2	2	15:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	19	15	4	.789	24:51	Loss
A. Nedeljkovic	23	21	2	.913	35:06

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Necas	C	0	2	2	3	0	1	+2	0	18:36	5:09
A. Lehkonen	LW	1	1	2	2	1	0	+2	0	18:29	5:08
N. MacKinnon	C	1	1	2	5	0	0	+3	0	18:19	5:13
G. Landeskog	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	2	16:00	5:11
R. Colton	C	1	0	1	2	2	1	+1	0	14:55	2:14
P. Kelly	C	0	1	1	2	2	1	+1	0	14:48	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	2	13:19	0:00
V. Olofsson	LW	0	1	1	5	0	0	+1	0	12:24	2:15
Z. Bardakov	C	0	1	1	0	0	3	+1	0	12:08	0:00
I. Ivan	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	8:32	0:00
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	16:15	2:09
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	2	1	5	+1	0	15:28	1:54
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	4	0	1	+2	0	20:38	5:38
J. Manson	D	1	0	1	3	2	4	+2	0	18:59	0:00
S. Malinski	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	16:48	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+2	0	19:37	1:25
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+2	2	18:27	0:34
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	18:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	26	26	0	1.000	60:00	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1W. Eklund14:36M. Celebrini15:00W. Smith12:37

Line 2T. Dellandrea13:44C. Graf13:56A. Gaudette10:35

Line 3B. Goodrow9:22Z. Ostapchuk9:24R. Reaves7:01

Line 4T. Toffoli9:31P. Kurashev9:45A. Wennberg8:48

Pair 1D. Orlov16:28T. Liljegren15:20

Pair 2M. Ferraro13:19S. Mukhamadullin14:36

Pair 3S. Dickinson16:10V. Desharnais12:43

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon13:06M. Necas13:27A. Lehkonen11:54

Line 2B. Nelson11:55R. Colton12:41G. Landeskog10:49

Line 3P. Kelly10:35J. Drury10:05V. Olofsson10:09

Line 4J. Kiviranta10:20Z. Bardakov10:20I. Ivan8:29

Pair 1S. Girard16:37S. Malinski15:53

Pair 2D. Toews16:32C. Makar13:11

Pair 3B. Burns12:54J. Manson13:58

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMackenzie Blackwood COL Faces SJS, his team until Dec 202426 saves on 26, the win

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.3, COL 4.2	SJS 0, COL 6
Total goals	6.5	6
Shots on goal	SJS 23.1, COL 35.3	SJS 26, COL 42
Win chance	COL 77%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.6	5	1.74	2	46%	1
COL C. Makar	3.2	4	1.40	1	32%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	2.8	3	0.87	0	28%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.8	2	0.96	2	37%	1
COL M. Necas	2.7	3	1.19	2	35%	0
COL R. Colton	2.4	2	0.60	1	24%	1
COL B. Nelson	2.2	0	0.82	0	33%	0
COL V. Olofsson	2.2	5	0.64	1	27%	0
COL G. Landeskog	2.1	2	0.80	1	30%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.1	1	0.51	0	24%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.0	4	0.66	0	22%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.9	1	0.63	0	19%	0
COL B. Burns	1.9	2	0.45	0	10%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.6	2	0.33	1	7%	1
COL J. Drury	1.6	2	0.43	0	16%	0
COL D. Toews	1.6	2	0.64	0	13%	0
COL J. Manson	1.5	3	0.34	1	9%	1
COL P. Kelly	1.4	2	0.33	1	13%	0
SJS P. Kurashev	1.3	1	0.40	0	15%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.2	2	0.36	0	6%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.2	0	0.30	0	17%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.1	3	0.46	0	16%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.1	2	0.23	0	9%	0
COL S. Girard	1.1	1	0.33	0	5%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.0	0	0.32	0	13%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.0	1	0.25	0	5%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.0	3	0.23	1	12%	1
SJS M. Ferraro	0.9	0	0.19	0	4%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	0.9	1	0.13	0	4%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.9	2	0.17	0	9%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	0.8	2	0.24	0	4%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.7	0	0.25	1	8%	0
COL I. Ivan	0.6	2	0.15	1	9%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.6	0	0.08	0	5%	0
SJS R. Reaves	0.5	2	0.11	0	6%	0
SJS V. Desharnais	0.5	1	0.10	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.