Game Recap: SJS 2, COL 4, February 4, 2026

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Game Recap

SJS2

FinalWed, Feb 4, 2026Every game that night

COL4

COL beat SJS 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 5.49 expected goals to 1.87. COL outshot SJS 42 to 25. V. Nichushkin led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). B. Goodrow had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.7. M. Blackwood stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	0	0	2	2
COL	0	2	2	4

2nd 1:05COLA. Lehkonen0.55 xG
2nd 15:47COLA. Lehkonen0.17 xG
3rd 0:43SJST. Liljegren0.02 xG
3rd 3:34SJSP. Kurashev0.10 xG
3rd 12:44COLJ. Manson0.06 xG
3rd 18:43COLB. NelsonEN0.46 xG

Team Stats

SJSCOL

25Shots on goal42

1.87Expected goals5.49

43Shot attempts76

225v5 shots on goal33

0/3Power play0/3

24Hits16

21Blocked shots6

8Penalty minutes8

22Giveaways12

5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 1.87 xGCOL 5.49 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS25 on goal, 2 scored

COL41 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Wennberg	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	2	20:12	4:16
P. Kurashev	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+2	2	17:09	1:19
M. Celebrini	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	2	20:14	3:58
W. Eklund	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	-3	0	19:26	4:01
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	17:41	4:00
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	2	17:39	1:22
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	14:59	4:02
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	14:22	0:00
M. Misa	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	11:30	1:04
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:16	0:00
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	4	2	1	0	0	9:42	0:00
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:39	0:00
T. Liljegren	D	1	0	1	2	1	2	+1	0	20:08	0:00
J. Klingberg	D	0	1	1	0	3	3	-3	0	19:13	1:20
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	20:12	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	3	3	1	-1	0	19:29	1:18
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	16:48	0:00
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	15:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	41	38	3	.927	59:12	Loss
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	3	3	2	3	1	+4	0	20:44	2:35
N. MacKinnon	C	0	2	2	4	1	0	+4	0	23:01	4:17
A. Lehkonen	LW	2	0	2	5	1	0	+2	0	17:35	2:30
B. Nelson	C	1	0	1	5	1	0	+1	2	21:43	4:17
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	17:20	1:15
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	-2	2	16:11	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	14:33	1:07
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	1	3	2	-2	0	13:11	0:00
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:06	0:44
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	9:49	2:27
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	4:18	0:00
T. Makar	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3:25	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	24:51	3:49
J. Manson	D	1	0	1	4	0	1	+2	0	18:28	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+2	0	25:56	2:03
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	4	1	1	+1	2	18:35	1:18
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	14:42	0:18
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	25	23	2	.920	60:00	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1M. Celebrini15:22K. Sherwood13:51W. Smith12:14

Line 2A. Wennberg13:07P. Kurashev13:50C. Graf11:41

Line 3T. Toffoli10:57W. Eklund12:28M. Misa10:02

Line 4B. Goodrow7:45A. Gaudette8:39Z. Ostapchuk7:53

Pair 1D. Orlov16:38J. Klingberg16:01

Pair 2T. Liljegren17:02M. Ferraro15:00

Pair 3S. Mukhamadullin13:56V. Desharnais12:54

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon16:49V. Nichushkin15:19A. Lehkonen12:55

Line 2P. Kelly13:35J. Drury12:17J. Kiviranta11:48

Line 3B. Nelson13:57V. Olofsson12:09R. Colton13:26

Line 4G. Brindley7:22Z. Bardakov4:18T. Makar3:25

Pair 1D. Toews18:59C. Makar16:07

Pair 2B. Burns15:07J. Manson15:41

Pair 3S. Girard13:41S. Malinski12:25

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMackenzie Blackwood COL Faces SJS, his team until Dec 202423 saves on 25, the win

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.6, COL 4.3	SJS 2, COL 4
Total goals	7.0	6
Shots on goal	SJS 24.3, COL 34.8	SJS 25, COL 42
Win chance	COL 74%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.8	4	1.91	2	49%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	3.5	2	1.10	0	32%	0
COL C. Makar	3.0	0	1.28	1	30%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.7	5	1.10	1	41%	1
COL V. Nichushkin	2.7	2	0.95	3	37%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.4	3	0.62	0	27%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.4	5	0.87	2	33%	2
COL R. Colton	2.3	3	0.54	0	21%	0
SJS K. Sherwood	2.3	1	0.50	0	23%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.3	2	0.74	0	26%	0
COL S. Malinski	2.2	2	0.46	0	9%	0
COL V. Olofsson	2.1	2	0.59	0	26%	0
COL B. Burns	2.0	4	0.50	0	13%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.8	2	0.51	0	16%	0
COL J. Manson	1.7	4	0.46	1	10%	1
COL D. Toews	1.6	2	0.56	0	12%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.5	3	0.40	0	16%	0
COL J. Drury	1.4	2	0.43	0	16%	0
SJS J. Klingberg	1.4	0	0.42	1	10%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.3	3	0.46	0	19%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.2	1	0.53	1	16%	0
SJS M. Misa	1.2	0	0.35	0	11%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.2	0	0.26	0	15%	0
COL G. Brindley	1.1	2	0.31	0	13%	0
SJS P. Kurashev	1.1	2	0.35	1	13%	1
COL J. Kiviranta	1.1	1	0.28	0	13%	0
COL S. Girard	1.0	0	0.36	0	7%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.0	0	0.19	0	4%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.0	3	0.33	0	6%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.0	2	0.24	1	4%	1
SJS B. Goodrow	0.7	4	0.14	0	8%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	0.7	0	0.19	0	4%	0
COL T. Makar	0.7	0	0.10	0	7%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.7	0	0.10	0	7%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.6	1	0.24	0	6%	0
SJS V. Desharnais	0.5	0	0.11	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.