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Game Recap
SJS1
DAL4
DAL beat SJS 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.78 expected goals to 1.71. M. Rantanen led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Oettinger stopped 16 of 17.
Team Stats
SJSDAL
17Shots on goal24
1.71Expected goals2.78
41Shot attempts47
135v5 shots on goal21
0/4Power play1/2
24Hits17
9Blocked shots17
6Penalty minutes10
13Giveaways10
6Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SJS 1.71 xGDAL 2.78 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Graf | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:47 | 0:00 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:09 | 0:00 |
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:54 | 5:05 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:27 | 4:44 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:09 | 4:24 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 17:32 | 3:30 |
| P. Kurashev | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:08 | 2:58 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:38 | 4:12 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:03 | 3:48 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:12 | 3:17 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:54 | 0:00 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:06 | 0:00 |
| N. Leddy | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:29 | 0:00 |
| J. Klingberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:14 | 3:36 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:07 | 4:26 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:07 | 0:00 |
| S. Dickinson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:22 | 0:00 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:48 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Askarov | 23 | 20 | 3 | .870 | 59:35 | Loss |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Rantanen | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 | 18:17 | 3:13 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 16:39 | 2:25 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:51 | 3:10 |
| S. Steel | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:44 | 0:00 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:25 | 2:23 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:55 | 0:03 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:22 | 0:52 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:59 | 0:06 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:01 | 0:00 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:53 | 0:00 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:53 | 0:54 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:10 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:48 | 2:24 |
| A. Petrovic | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:42 | 0:00 |
| V. Kolyachonok | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:11 | 0:00 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 25:30 | 0:09 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 17:24 | 0:00 |
| K. Capobianco | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:16 | 0:56 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 17 | 16 | 1 | .941 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
SJS
Line 1T. Dellandrea15:01C. Graf14:38J. Skinner14:02
Line 2A. Wennberg13:38W. Eklund13:39P. Kurashev13:45
Line 3W. Smith12:02M. Celebrini13:54T. Toffoli10:00
Line 4B. Goodrow6:50Z. Ostapchuk6:06A. Gaudette5:55
Pair 1N. Leddy15:30S. Dickinson16:29
Pair 2D. Orlov14:39T. Liljegren13:25
Pair 3J. Klingberg17:15M. Ferraro14:32
DAL
Line 1R. Hintz13:24J. Robertson15:17J. Benn11:33
Line 2M. Rantanen15:01W. Johnston13:17S. Steel12:20
Line 3J. Hryckowian10:34O. Bäck11:12M. Bourque10:51
Line 4R. Faksa9:08N. Bastian8:10C. Blackwell8:01
Pair 1E. Lindell16:35M. Heiskanen15:20
Pair 2A. Petrovic15:40K. Capobianco15:20
Pair 3V. Kolyachonok15:06I. Lyubushkin14:31
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SJS 2.4, DAL 3.6 | SJS 1, DAL 4 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | SJS 25.3, DAL 29.7 | SJS 17, DAL 24 |
| Win chance | DAL 68% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL J. Robertson | 3.4 | 3 | 1.25 | 1 | 41% | 1 |
| SJS M. Celebrini | 2.7 | 1 | 0.87 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.7 | 2 | 1.21 | 3 | 38% | 1 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.6 | 2 | 0.92 | 2 | 36% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.5 | 3 | 0.89 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.4 | 0 | 0.94 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 2.2 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.2 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 2.0 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SJS J. Klingberg | 1.7 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.6 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SJS D. Orlov | 1.6 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.6 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS A. Gaudette | 1.5 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SJS J. Skinner | 1.5 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL A. Petrovic | 1.5 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.5 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS P. Kurashev | 1.3 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.2 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.2 | 3 | 0.41 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 1.2 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.2 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SJS S. Dickinson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS C. Graf | 1.1 | 2 | 0.32 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| DAL K. Capobianco | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL N. Bastian | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL R. Faksa | 0.8 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.8 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL V. Kolyachonok | 0.8 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.7 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS N. Leddy | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| SJS Z. Ostapchuk | 0.5 | 0 | 0.07 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.