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Game Recap
SJS6
DET3
SJS beat DET 6-3 despite fewer good chances: 1.62 expected goals to 3.12. W. Eklund led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). L. Raymond had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. A. Georgiev stopped 25 of 28.
Team Stats
SJSDET
24Shots on goal28
1.62Expected goals3.12
35Shot attempts72
185v5 shots on goal25
1/1Power play0/2
18Hits21
18Blocked shots9
4Penalty minutes2
18Giveaways18
8Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SJS 1.62 xGDET 3.12 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Eklund | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 15:34 | 0:53 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:14 | 0:53 |
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:33 | 0:53 |
| M. Granlund | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:14 | 0:53 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:04 | 0:00 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:24 | 0:00 |
| N. Sturm | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:52 | 0:00 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:14 | 0:00 |
| C. Graf | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:27 | 0:00 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:03 | 0:00 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:02 | 0:00 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:50 | 0:00 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 21:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Rutta | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:43 | 0:00 |
| M. Vlasic | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:49 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +3 | 0 | 21:06 | 0:00 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 19:44 | 0:00 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | +3 | 0 | 19:24 | 0:53 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Georgiev | 28 | 25 | 3 | .893 | 60:00 | Win |
| Y. Askarov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:31 | 1:08 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:29 | 2:51 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:19 | 2:42 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:57 | 0:00 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 11:10 | 1:15 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:17 | 2:44 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:11 | 2:42 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:22 | 0:01 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:08 | 1:13 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:51 | 1:01 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:42 | 0:01 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:15 | 0:01 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:50 | 0:00 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:41 | 1:47 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 24:01 | 2:13 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:27 | 0:05 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:15 | 0:16 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:26 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SJS 2.7, DET 3.6 | SJS 6, DET 3 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | SJS 26.5, DET 30.9 | SJS 24, DET 28 |
| Win chance | DET 64% | SJS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.0 | 3 | 0.79 | 2 | 27% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.9 | 1 | 1.04 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.7 | 5 | 0.88 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.6 | 1 | 0.93 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.5 | 2 | 0.63 | 3 | 29% | 1 |
| SJS J. Walman | 2.3 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS F. Zetterlund | 2.2 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| SJS M. Granlund | 2.2 | 2 | 0.81 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| DET M. Seider | 2.1 | 1 | 0.70 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.1 | 5 | 1.00 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.9 | 4 | 0.65 | 2 | 25% | 2 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.7 | 4 | 0.64 | 3 | 19% | 1 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.6 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.5 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.5 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 1.4 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.4 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SJS L. Kunin | 1.3 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.3 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 1.3 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.43 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.40 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.2 | 0 | 0.40 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS C. Ceci | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.1 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| SJS C. Graf | 1.0 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS M. Vlasic | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS J. Rutta | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| DET A. Johansson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS N. Sturm | 0.7 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.6 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.