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Game Recap
SJS2
DET4
DET beat SJS 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.58 expected goals to 3.34. L. Raymond led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). M. Kasper had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. J. Gibson stopped 20 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| DET | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
- 1st 6:18DETA. DeBrincatPP0.14 xG
- 1st 9:54SJSW. Smith0.73 xG
- 2nd 1:58SJSC. Graf0.07 xG
- 2nd 6:55DETJ. Compher0.22 xG
- 3rd 4:41DETD. Larkin0.46 xG
- 3rd 18:28DETM. KasperEN0.90 xG
Team Stats
SJSDET
22Shots on goal25
3.34Expected goals4.58
46Shot attempts66
195v5 shots on goal21
0/1Power play1/2
16Hits14
16Blocked shots17
4Penalty minutes2
21Giveaways11
2Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SJS 3.34 xGDET 4.58 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:14 | 1:01 |
| W. Smith | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:10 | 0:51 |
| C. Graf | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:15 | 0:00 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:00 | 1:09 |
| P. Regenda | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:01 | 0:50 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:51 | 1:10 |
| I. Chernyshov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:06 | 0:41 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:00 | 1:09 |
| M. Misa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:25 | 0:59 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:12 | 0:00 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:11 | 0:00 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:09 | 0:00 |
| S. Dickinson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 2 | 21:42 | 0:10 |
| J. Klingberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:12 | 1:10 |
| N. Leddy | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:27 | 0:00 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:42 | 0:50 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 18:48 | 0:00 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:15 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Askarov | 24 | 21 | 3 | .875 | 57:46 | Loss |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:53 | 1:48 |
| M. Kasper | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:33 | 0:00 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:49 | 1:31 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 18:46 | 2:07 |
| D. Larkin | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:46 | 1:46 |
| J. Compher | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:28 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:57 | 1:03 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:53 | 0:47 |
| E. Finnie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:26 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:55 | 0:00 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:47 | 0:00 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:56 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 26:41 | 2:18 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 26:20 | 0:20 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22:47 | 0:00 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:19 | 0:00 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 13:41 | 0:00 |
| A. Sandin-Pellikka | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:01 | 0:16 |
Lines at 5-on-5
SJS
Line 1M. Celebrini19:25W. Smith19:31P. Regenda15:45
Line 2T. Toffoli13:03A. Wennberg16:13W. Eklund13:53
Line 3I. Chernyshov12:59C. Graf13:35M. Misa11:26
Line 4B. Goodrow8:52A. Gaudette7:45Z. Ostapchuk7:25
Pair 1D. Orlov18:26J. Klingberg18:14
Pair 2N. Leddy16:44S. Dickinson19:32
Pair 3M. Ferraro17:14T. Liljegren15:58
DET
Line 1P. Kane15:29A. Copp15:26A. DeBrincat16:03
Line 2D. Larkin14:40L. Raymond14:50J. Riemsdyk12:18
Line 3J. Compher12:40M. Kasper13:24E. Finnie12:07
Line 4M. Appleton10:39M. Rasmussen10:51E. Soderblom11:06
Pair 1M. Seider22:14S. Edvinsson23:19
Pair 2J. Bernard-Docker13:05A. Johansson17:56
Pair 3B. Chiarot21:08A. Sandin-Pellikka8:45
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SJS 2.8, DET 3.8 | SJS 2, DET 4 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | SJS 25.4, DET 30.2 | SJS 22, DET 25 |
| Win chance | DET 65% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.7 | 7 | 1.26 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.3 | 3 | 1.02 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.8 | 6 | 0.99 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.5 | 0 | 0.68 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.5 | 2 | 0.87 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 2.4 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 2.2 | 1 | 0.74 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.2 | 2 | 1.03 | 3 | 30% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 2.0 | 3 | 0.64 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| DET J. Riemsdyk | 2.0 | 0 | 0.68 | 2 | 25% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.8 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| SJS P. Regenda | 1.8 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SJS J. Klingberg | 1.6 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| DET E. Finnie | 1.6 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SJS I. Chernyshov | 1.6 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.5 | 5 | 0.33 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.5 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS M. Misa | 1.4 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS A. Gaudette | 1.3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET M. Appleton | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.3 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS D. Orlov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 3 | 0.46 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| SJS C. Graf | 1.2 | 3 | 0.45 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS S. Dickinson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.16 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| DET A. Sandin-Pellikka | 0.9 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET J. Bernard-Docker | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS Z. Ostapchuk | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS N. Leddy | 0.6 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.