Game Recap: SJS 3, DET 4 (SO), October 17, 2026

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Game Recap

SJS3

Final/SOSat, Oct 17, 2026Every game that night

DET4

DET beat SJS 4-3 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 3.06 expected goals to 4.41. M. Celebrini led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). E. Finnie had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. J. Gibson stopped 31 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
SJS	1	1	1	0	3
DET	1	0	2	1	4

1st 12:47DETJ. FaulkPP0.02 xG
1st 17:59SJSD. OrlovPP0.06 xG
2nd 4:55SJSM. Celebrini0.18 xG
3rd 2:48SJSI. StenbergPP0.20 xG
3rd 5:00DETE. Finnie0.11 xG
3rd 18:27DETA. DeBrincat0.21 xG

Team Stats

SJSDET

34Shots on goal27

4.41Expected goals3.06

80Shot attempts57

225v5 shots on goal18

2/6Power play1/4

18Hits28

11Blocked shots21

13Penalty minutes17

15Giveaways10

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 4.41 xGDET 3.06 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS34 on goal, 3 scored

DET27 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	1	2	3	7	1	1	+1	0	26:54	8:24
I. Stenberg	LW	1	1	2	3	0	0	-1	0	17:30	7:53
W. Smith	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	25:11	8:23
A. Wennberg	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	23:00	8:24
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	4	14:49	1:35
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:03	0:00
I. Chernyshov	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	13:42	0:49
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	12:55	0:00
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:03	0:56
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	5	11:41	0:00
M. Misa	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	11:29	1:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	11:09	0:00
M. Kesselring	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	20:23	0:12
D. Orlov	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	20:09	6:23
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	1	1	5	-1	2	22:15	1:01
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	5	1	1	+1	0	21:47	0:00
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	16:48	0:00
N. Allan	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	2	14:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	27	24	3	.889	64:38	OT loss
Y. Askarov	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Finnie	C	1	1	2	6	0	3	+1	2	18:45	3:04
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	20:58	4:28
A. DeBrincat	RW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+2	0	19:16	4:27
M. Rasmussen	C	0	1	1	1	2	3	0	0	18:34	3:19
M. Brandsegg-Nygård	RW	0	1	1	0	4	1	+2	0	17:02	3:18
D. Larkin	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	24:39	4:33
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	20:53	3:11
L. Raymond	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	20:02	4:35
N. Danielson	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:17	0:00
S. Dries	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	10:12	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	5	5:18	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	2	2	2	4	4	+1	0	29:46	4:31
J. Faulk	D	1	0	1	4	1	2	0	2	19:43	3:14
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	2	22:42	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:10	0:05
W. Wallinder	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	12:41	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	11:44	0:00
A. Englund	D	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	2	9:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	34	31	3	.912	64:20	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1M. Celebrini15:40W. Smith14:33I. Chernyshov12:53

Line 2T. Toffoli10:35M. Marchment12:00A. Wennberg11:58

Line 3M. Misa10:29K. Sherwood10:27I. Stenberg8:58

Line 4Z. Ostapchuk7:04C. Graf9:08B. Goodrow7:42

Pair 1D. Nurse14:49M. Kesselring16:12

Pair 2J. Trouba16:45S. Dickinson13:37

Pair 3D. Orlov13:10N. Allan13:05

DET

Line 1D. Larkin14:39V. Arvidsson15:33L. Raymond14:05

Line 2M. Brandsegg-Nygård12:56E. Finnie12:04A. DeBrincat13:02

Line 3A. Copp12:00M. Rasmussen12:37N. Danielson12:55

Line 4K. Kolesar5:18S. Dries5:53

Pair 1B. Chiarot16:14M. Seider16:58

Pair 2J. Faulk14:51W. Wallinder9:03

Pair 3A. Johansson10:45A. Johansson11:44

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 18 overs hit (44%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
DET A. DeBrincat	3.5	+110	-130	2	Under
SJS M. Celebrini	3.5	+135	-146	7	Over
DET D. Larkin	2.5	-130	+120	1	Under
DET L. Raymond	2.5	+125	-150	2	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	2.5	-115	+100	3	Over
SJS W. Smith	2.5	+115	-140	4	Over
DET A. Copp	1.5	+100	-125	2	Over
DET E. Finnie	1.5	-110	+100	6	Over
SJS I. Chernyshov	1.5	+100	-130	1	Under
DET J. Faulk	1.5	-105	-120	4	Over
SJS J. Trouba	1.5	-105	-120	1	Under
SJS K. Sherwood	1.5	-140	+120	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	1.5	-145	+120	0	Under
SJS M. Marchment	1.5	-120	+100	2	Over
SJS M. Misa	1.5	+130	–	0	Under
DET M. Seider	1.5	-150	+120	2	Over
DET N. Danielson	1.5	+105	-155	0	Under
SJS T. Toffoli	1.5	-150	+120	0	Under

5 of 32 overs hit (16%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+380	-475	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+155	-190	1	Over
DET A. Johansson	0.5	+1400	–	0	Under
SJS A. Wennberg	0.5	+525	-650	0	Under
DET B. Chiarot	0.5	+1300	-3500	0	Under
SJS B. Goodrow	0.5	+1500	-2000	0	Under
SJS C. Graf	0.5	+650	-1200	0	Under
DET D. Larkin	0.5	+180	-200	0	Under
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+1050	-2500	1	Over
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+350	-400	1	Over
SJS I. Chernyshov	0.5	+400	-470	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+750	-1200	1	Over
SJS J. Trouba	0.5	+1200	-1600	0	Under
DET K. Kolesar	0.5	+800	-2500	0	Under
SJS K. Sherwood	0.5	+450	-750	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+250	-330	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+400	-500	0	Under
SJS M. Celebrini	0.5	+150	-190	1	Over
SJS M. Kesselring	0.5	+2000	-3500	0	Under
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+380	-500	0	Under
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+500	-700	0	Under
DET M. Rasmussen	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+650	-800	0	Under
SJS N. Allan	0.5	+1200	-3500	0	Under
DET N. Danielson	0.5	+550	-1200	0	Under
SJS S. Dickinson	0.5	+1800	-2800	0	Under
DET S. Dries	0.5	+900	-2800	0	Under
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+320	-500	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+200	-280	0	Under
SJS W. Smith	0.5	+230	-320	0	Under
DET W. Wallinder	0.5	+1400	-10000	0	Under
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.5	+1400	-1600	0	Under

7 of 20 overs hit (35%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+260	-295	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+115	-140	0	Under
SJS A. Wennberg	0.5	+188	-230	1	Over
DET D. Larkin	0.5	+130	-155	0	Under
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+200	-295	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+260	-285	1	Over
SJS I. Chernyshov	0.5	+260	-360	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+235	-275	0	Under
SJS J. Trouba	0.5	+260	-450	0	Under
SJS K. Sherwood	0.5	+380	-575	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+110	-135	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+280	-375	1	Over
SJS M. Celebrini	0.5	-145	+125	2	Over
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+260	-295	0	Under
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+240	-310	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	-105	-125	2	Over
DET N. Danielson	0.5	+320	-350	0	Under
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+275	-390	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+165	-200	1	Over
SJS W. Smith	0.5	+145	-175	1	Over

10 of 19 overs hit (53%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
SJS M. Celebrini	1.5	+145	-165	3	Over
DET A. Copp	0.5	+135	-155	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	-200	+190	1	Over
SJS A. Wennberg	0.5	+120	-135	1	Over
DET D. Larkin	0.5	-170	+145	0	Under
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+140	-190	1	Over
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+130	-145	2	Over
SJS I. Chernyshov	0.5	+135	-160	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+170	-190	1	Over
SJS K. Sherwood	0.5	+200	-210	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	-170	+135	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+145	-180	1	Over
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+135	-135	0	Under
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+165	-180	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	-132	+105	2	Over
DET N. Danielson	0.5	+185	-225	0	Under
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+150	-155	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	-140	+125	1	Over
SJS W. Smith	0.5	-140	+120	1	Over

5 of 17 overs hit (29%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+390	-900	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+195	-200	0	Under
SJS A. Wennberg	0.5	+320	-700	1	Over
DET D. Larkin	0.5	+220	-260	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+400	-1100	1	Over
SJS I. Chernyshov	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+400	-1100	1	Over
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+210	-240	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
SJS M. Celebrini	0.5	+160	-220	2	Over
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+475	-700	0	Under
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
DET M. Rasmussen	0.5	+500	-1600	1	Over
DET M. Seider	0.5	+270	-260	0	Under
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+400	-1100	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+220	-325	0	Under
SJS W. Smith	0.5	+275	-450	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
SJS A. Nedeljkovic	25.5	-105	-115	24	Under
DET J. Gibson	24.5	-105	-120	31	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownJacob Trouba SJS Plays near home (born in Rochester)1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.9, DET 3.4	SJS 3, DET 4
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	SJS 25.2, DET 29.6	SJS 34, DET 27
Win chance	DET 59%	DET won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET A. DeBrincat	3.7	2	1.19	1	40%	1
SJS M. Celebrini	3.3	7	1.19	3	35%	1
DET D. Larkin	3.3	1	1.11	0	40%	0
DET V. Arvidsson	3.2	3	0.98	1	34%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.6	2	1.11	0	33%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.4	0	0.61	0	25%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.3	4	0.81	1	28%	0
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	2.3	0	0.46	1	18%	0
DET M. Seider	2.2	2	0.78	2	13%	0
SJS K. Sherwood	1.9	0	0.43	0	20%	0
SJS M. Marchment	1.8	2	0.65	0	24%	0
SJS J. Trouba	1.8	1	0.33	0	8%	0
DET A. Copp	1.7	2	0.62	0	20%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.7	6	0.48	2	21%	1
DET J. Faulk	1.6	4	0.51	1	12%	1
SJS I. Chernyshov	1.6	1	0.58	0	20%	0
SJS M. Kesselring	1.5	1	0.24	1	5%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.4	1	0.41	1	18%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.3	1	0.26	0	8%	0
SJS I. Stenberg	1.3	3	0.43	2	16%	1
SJS A. Wennberg	1.3	3	0.62	1	19%	0
SJS M. Misa	1.2	0	0.42	0	15%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.2	1	0.39	0	16%	0
DET S. Dries	1.1	1	0.18	0	10%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.0	1	0.33	1	5%	1
SJS S. Dickinson	1.0	2	0.23	0	4%	0
DET N. Danielson	1.0	0	0.25	0	9%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.9	0	0.17	0	5%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.9	0	0.17	0	9%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.8	0	0.22	0	5%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.8	3	0.11	0	7%	0
DET K. Kolesar	0.7	0	0.21	0	9%	0
SJS N. Allan	0.5	0	0.19	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.