Game Recap: SJS 2, EDM 3 (OT), December 21, 2024

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Game Recap

SJS2

Final/OTSat, Dec 21, 2024Every game that night

EDM3

EDM beat SJS 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.24 expected goals to 1.94. EDM outshot SJS 42 to 22. C. McDavid led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). M. Ekholm had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. C. Pickard stopped 20 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
SJS	2	0	0	0	2
EDM	1	0	1	1	3

1st 3:23SJSL. Kunin0.15 xG
1st 7:07EDMZ. Hyman0.09 xG
1st 8:21SJSJ. Rutta0.13 xG
3rd 19:42EDMM. Ekholm0.22 xG
OT 0:18EDML. Draisaitl0.15 xG

Team Stats

SJSEDM

22Shots on goal42

1.94Expected goals4.24

41Shot attempts78

215v5 shots on goal35

0/1Power play0/2

18Hits4

15Blocked shots9

4Penalty minutes2

17Giveaways21

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 1.94 xGEDM 4.24 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS22 on goal, 2 scored

EDM41 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	20:13	1:32
A. Wennberg	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	19:20	1:31
L. Kunin	C	1	0	1	3	1	2	0	0	17:27	0:08
M. Granlund	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	21:08	1:32
W. Eklund	LW	0	0	0	4	1	2	0	2	19:24	0:21
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	17:03	0:21
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	16:14	0:08
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	13:23	1:31
N. Kovalenko	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	11:34	0:20
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:15	0:20
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	7:47	0:00
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5:41	0:08
J. Walman	D	0	1	1	2	2	1	-2	0	25:51	1:41
T. Liljegren	D	0	1	1	0	5	0	+1	0	17:29	0:19
J. Rutta	D	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	15:21	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	23:18	0:00
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	22:17	0:08
H. Thrun	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	14:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	42	39	3	.929	60:15	OT loss
A. Georgiev	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	0	3	3	2	0	0	+3	0	25:19	3:03
Z. Hyman	LW	1	0	1	4	0	0	+2	0	23:00	3:11
L. Draisaitl	C	1	0	1	6	0	2	+1	0	22:56	3:07
C. Perry	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	13:41	0:49
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	19:42	3:07
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	14:27	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	13:47	0:57
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	13:12	0:00
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	12:24	0:00
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	8:34	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	8:12	0:00
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	7:53	0:54
E. Bouchard	D	0	2	2	4	1	0	+2	0	25:36	3:00
M. Ekholm	D	1	0	1	7	0	1	+2	0	23:11	0:32
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	4	2	1	-1	0	22:36	1:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	-2	0	22:18	0:20
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:35	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:49	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Pickard	22	20	2	.909	59:00	Win
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDarnell Nurse SJS First game back in Edmonton, his team until Apr 20264 SOG
Old teamJake Walman EDM Faces SJS, his team until Mar 20251 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.5, EDM 4.2	SJS 2, EDM 3
Total goals	6.7	5
Shots on goal	SJS 25.0, EDM 35.9	SJS 22, EDM 42
Win chance	EDM 74%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.5	2	1.99	3	45%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	3.2	4	0.98	1	43%	1
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.9	6	1.65	1	48%	1
EDM E. Bouchard	2.8	4	1.05	2	19%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	2.8	2	0.75	1	26%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.6	4	0.51	0	12%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.6	2	0.72	0	24%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.5	2	0.60	0	28%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	2.4	7	0.58	1	13%	1
SJS M. Granlund	2.1	1	0.77	0	18%	0
EDM J. Skinner	2.0	1	0.58	0	25%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.0	1	0.93	0	26%	0
SJS F. Zetterlund	2.0	0	0.50	0	20%	0
SJS J. Walman	1.9	2	0.43	1	13%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.8	2	0.40	0	8%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.5	3	0.57	0	24%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.4	0	0.39	0	13%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.4	5	0.36	0	15%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.4	4	0.57	0	17%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.3	1	0.39	0	15%	0
SJS W. Smith	1.3	1	0.36	0	15%	0
SJS C. Grundstrom	1.2	2	0.20	0	11%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.1	0	0.37	1	14%	0
SJS L. Kunin	1.1	3	0.27	1	14%	1
EDM C. Perry	1.1	0	0.36	1	17%	0
EDM T. Stecher	1.0	0	0.19	0	5%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.0	0	0.27	1	6%	0
EDM T. Emberson	1.0	0	0.23	0	3%	0
SJS C. Ceci	0.9	1	0.25	0	5%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	0.9	0	0.17	0	4%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.9	1	0.22	0	11%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.9	0	0.39	0	13%	0
SJS J. Rutta	0.8	1	0.18	1	4%	1
SJS N. Kovalenko	0.8	1	0.34	0	12%	0
SJS N. Sturm	0.7	0	0.18	0	8%	0
SJS H. Thrun	0.6	1	0.18	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.