Game Recap: SJS 2, EDM 4, April 11, 2025

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Game Recap

SJS2

FinalFri, Apr 11, 2025Every game that night

EDM4

EDM beat SJS 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.48 expected goals to 1.98. EDM outshot SJS 34 to 24. C. McDavid led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). C. Brown had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. C. Pickard stopped 22 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	1	1	0	2
EDM	2	0	2	4

1st 6:47EDME. BouchardPP0.07 xG
1st 15:41EDMT. Emberson0.07 xG
1st 17:13SJSW. Smith0.03 xG
2nd 5:44SJSH. Thrun0.02 xG
3rd 7:32EDMC. PerryPP0.34 xG
3rd 19:34EDMC. BrownEN0.67 xG

Team Stats

SJSEDM

24Shots on goal34

1.98Expected goals4.48

51Shot attempts76

185v5 shots on goal24

0/2Power play2/5

13Hits22

20Blocked shots14

10Penalty minutes4

18Giveaways6

6Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 1.98 xGEDM 4.48 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS22 on goal, 2 scored

EDM34 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Smith	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	2	20:04	2:33
W. Eklund	LW	0	1	1	5	0	2	0	0	18:40	2:21
N. Kovalenko	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	15:14	1:40
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	22:03	2:18
M. Celebrini	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	18:46	2:32
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	16:45	2:32
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	14:25	0:00
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	3	4	4	0	0	12:07	0:00
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	11:46	1:27
C. Lund	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	11:37	1:28
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	2	10:25	0:00
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	8:19	0:00
H. Thrun	D	1	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	22:48	0:05
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	24:35	1:28
L. Carlsson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	21:31	1:36
J. Rutta	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	19:29	0:00
J. Thompson	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:47	0:00
M. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:23	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
G. Romanov	33	30	3	.909	58:32	Loss
A. Georgiev	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	0	4	4	4	0	0	+2	2	23:37	7:44
A. Henrique	C	0	2	2	0	1	2	-1	0	17:44	5:38
C. Brown	RW	1	0	1	6	1	0	+2	0	19:01	0:00
C. Perry	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	15:56	5:44
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	18:17	5:38
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:26	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	14:33	0:00
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	14:23	2:06
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:04	0:00
N. Philp	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	11:43	0:00
M. Jones	LW	0	0	0	3	5	0	0	0	9:36	0:00
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	7:33	2:00
E. Bouchard	D	1	1	2	5	0	1	+1	0	28:24	6:39
D. Nurse	D	0	1	1	3	2	3	-1	2	25:14	2:06
T. Emberson	D	1	0	1	1	3	2	+1	0	18:17	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	24:31	0:38
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	16:12	0:00
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1:52	0:27

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Pickard	24	22	2	.917	58:37	Win
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDarnell Nurse SJS First game back in Edmonton, his team until Apr 20261 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.7, EDM 4.3	SJS 2, EDM 4
Total goals	7.0	6
Shots on goal	SJS 25.8, EDM 35.4	SJS 24, EDM 34
Win chance	EDM 73%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS M. Celebrini	3.2	3	0.84	0	26%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	3.2	2	0.89	0	41%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	3.0	5	1.13	2	19%	1
EDM C. McDavid	3.0	4	1.79	4	41%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	3.0	0	0.69	0	30%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.9	2	0.77	0	28%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.7	3	0.59	1	12%	0
EDM J. Skinner	2.5	1	0.72	0	30%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	2.2	0	0.63	0	13%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.1	1	0.71	1	23%	1
EDM B. Kulak	1.9	1	0.43	0	8%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.9	5	0.64	1	19%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.8	6	0.50	1	16%	1
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.7	0	0.41	0	16%	0
SJS C. Grundstrom	1.7	2	0.22	0	12%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.6	0	0.59	2	26%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.5	1	0.35	0	9%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.5	2	0.47	1	22%	1
SJS J. Thompson	1.2	0	0.27	0	8%	0
SJS L. Carlsson	1.2	1	0.25	0	8%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.2	2	0.35	0	14%	0
SJS C. Lund	1.2	1	0.30	0	13%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.2	1	0.46	0	15%	0
SJS N. Gregor	1.1	3	0.15	0	8%	0
EDM N. Philp	1.0	1	0.23	0	9%	0
EDM M. Jones	1.0	3	0.23	0	9%	0
EDM T. Stecher	1.0	1	0.18	0	5%	0
EDM M. Janmark	1.0	0	0.35	0	12%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.9	0	0.19	0	10%	0
SJS N. Kovalenko	0.9	0	0.35	1	13%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.9	1	0.23	1	2%	1
SJS J. Rutta	0.9	1	0.18	0	5%	0
SJS H. Thrun	0.8	1	0.19	1	4%	1
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.8	3	0.18	0	7%	0
SJS M. Vlasic	0.8	0	0.14	0	4%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.5	1	0.09	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.