Game Recap: SJS 3, EDM 4 (OT), January 29, 2026

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Game Recap

SJS3

Final/OTThu, Jan 29, 2026Every game that night

EDM4

EDM beat SJS 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.19 expected goals to 1.73. EDM outshot SJS 32 to 21. E. Bouchard led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Ingram stopped 18 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
SJS	3	0	0	0	3
EDM	0	0	3	1	4

1st 0:26SJSC. Graf0.09 xG
1st 1:35SJSA. Gaudette0.23 xG
1st 11:40SJSM. Misa0.16 xG
3rd 1:34EDML. Draisaitl0.54 xG
3rd 16:55EDMC. McDavid0.11 xG
3rd 19:01EDME. Bouchard0.07 xG
OT 1:06EDMZ. Hyman0.12 xG

Team Stats

SJSEDM

21Shots on goal32

1.73Expected goals3.19

35Shot attempts62

175v5 shots on goal26

0/2Power play0/1

17Hits24

15Blocked shots8

4Penalty minutes6

15Giveaways14

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 1.73 xGEDM 3.19 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS20 on goal, 3 scored

EDM32 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	22:49	2:42
C. Graf	RW	1	0	1	3	0	2	0	0	20:22	0:59
W. Smith	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	19:45	2:31
W. Eklund	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	16:14	1:14
M. Misa	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	12:51	1:03
A. Gaudette	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	12:20	0:29
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	0	0	5	-1	0	21:10	2:31
P. Regenda	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:52	1:28
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:52	2:03
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	11:37	0:15
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	2	8:50	0:15
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	7:35	0:00
T. Liljegren	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	24:56	0:30
S. Dickinson	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	14:41	0:00
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	23:47	0:15
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-3	0	22:12	1:05
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	17:02	0:00
J. Klingberg	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	16:23	2:40

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	32	28	4	.875	61:06	OT loss
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	1	2	3	2	3	0	+3	0	25:20	2:00
C. McDavid	C	1	1	2	2	1	0	+2	0	26:10	2:00
K. Kapanen	RW	0	1	1	4	3	3	+1	0	18:37	0:00
Z. Hyman	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	17:53	2:00
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	17:07	2:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	16:09	0:00
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	14:15	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:42	0:00
M. Savoie	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	9:17	0:00
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	2	8:45	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	8:26	0:00
J. Samanski	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	8:12	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	1	2	3	5	2	0	+2	2	25:06	2:00
M. Ekholm	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	2	21:52	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	22:26	0:00
J. Walman	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	19:45	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	15:35	0:00
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ingram	21	18	3	.857	59:19	Win
T. Jarry	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1W. Smith15:43M. Celebrini17:06C. Graf16:29

Line 2A. Wennberg15:31P. Regenda12:24T. Toffoli10:49

Line 3M. Misa11:32W. Eklund14:40A. Gaudette11:51

Line 4R. Reaves7:35B. Goodrow9:28Z. Ostapchuk7:14

Pair 1T. Liljegren20:42M. Ferraro20:54

Pair 2D. Orlov17:34J. Klingberg12:51

Pair 3S. Dickinson13:10V. Desharnais15:32

EDM

Line 1K. Kapanen17:49V. Podkolzin15:15L. Draisaitl18:49

Line 2Z. Hyman13:36C. McDavid17:35R. Nugent-Hopkins11:21

Line 3M. Janmark8:23T. Frederic8:26C. Lazar7:34

Line 4J. Roslovic14:15M. Savoie9:17J. Samanski8:12

Pair 1D. Nurse20:30J. Walman18:47

Pair 2M. Ekholm18:50E. Bouchard17:31

Pair 3T. Emberson13:05S. Stastney11:50

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDarnell Nurse SJS First game back in Edmonton, his team until Apr 20263 SOG
Old teamJake Walman EDM Faces SJS, his team until Mar 20254 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.9, EDM 4.1	SJS 3, EDM 4
Total goals	7.0	7
Shots on goal	SJS 25.3, EDM 32.4	SJS 21, EDM 32
Win chance	EDM 66%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.9	2	1.94	2	45%	1
EDM Z. Hyman	3.4	2	1.05	1	44%	1
SJS M. Celebrini	3.4	1	1.18	1	32%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	3.2	2	1.67	3	48%	1
EDM E. Bouchard	2.9	5	1.16	3	23%	1
SJS T. Toffoli	2.4	1	0.64	0	27%	0
SJS W. Eklund	2.1	3	0.64	1	19%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.1	1	0.99	1	28%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.1	4	0.77	1	25%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.0	3	0.40	0	11%	0
EDM J. Walman	1.9	4	0.49	0	13%	0
SJS P. Regenda	1.9	1	0.38	0	20%	0
EDM J. Roslovic	1.8	1	0.53	0	22%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.8	0	0.54	1	12%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.6	4	0.42	1	15%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	3	0.44	0	17%	0
SJS J. Klingberg	1.4	2	0.47	0	12%	0
SJS M. Misa	1.4	1	0.38	1	11%	1
EDM M. Savoie	1.3	2	0.35	0	16%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.3	0	0.59	0	17%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.2	3	0.48	1	19%	1
SJS A. Gaudette	1.2	1	0.30	1	16%	1
SJS M. Ferraro	1.0	0	0.21	0	5%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.0	0	0.37	0	7%	0
EDM T. Frederic	0.9	2	0.21	0	12%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	0.9	1	0.24	1	5%	0
EDM S. Stastney	0.9	0	0.19	0	5%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	0.8	2	0.21	1	4%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	0	0.16	0	8%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.7	0	0.26	0	9%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.7	0	0.24	0	4%	0
EDM C. Lazar	0.7	1	0.20	0	8%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.7	1	0.12	0	7%	0
SJS V. Desharnais	0.5	0	0.11	0	2%	0
SJS R. Reaves	0.5	0	0.11	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.