Game Recap: SJS 3, EDM 5, March 17, 2026

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Game Recap

SJS3

FinalTue, Mar 17, 2026Every game that night

EDM5

EDM beat SJS 5-3, with the chances close: 3.56 expected goals to 3.42. D. Orlov led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). P. Regenda had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. C. Ingram stopped 27 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	1	2	0	3
EDM	3	0	2	5

1st 7:24SJSD. Orlov0.23 xG
1st 10:00EDMR. Nugent-HopkinsPP0.17 xG
1st 11:15EDMC. Murphy0.01 xG
1st 14:18EDMV. Podkolzin0.07 xG
2nd 8:17SJSP. Regenda0.03 xG
2nd 14:36SJSK. Sherwood0.18 xG
3rd 4:49EDMM. Jones0.45 xG
3rd 8:12EDMZ. Hyman0.20 xG

Team Stats

SJSEDM

30Shots on goal37

3.42Expected goals3.56

57Shot attempts59

265v5 shots on goal27

0/1Power play1/4

22Hits17

16Blocked shots8

8Penalty minutes2

13Giveaways16

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 3.42 xGEDM 3.56 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS29 on goal, 3 scored

EDM37 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Sherwood	LW	1	1	2	2	2	0	+3	2	16:29	0:26
A. Wennberg	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	19:19	1:13
P. Regenda	LW	1	0	1	4	6	1	+3	0	14:26	0:04
A. Gaudette	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	0	11:01	0:00
M. Celebrini	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	22:51	1:37
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	17:09	0:00
W. Eklund	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	0	15:32	0:24
M. Misa	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-3	0	15:32	0:20
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-3	0	13:34	1:09
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:27	1:16
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	9:51	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	8:56	0:00
D. Orlov	D	1	1	2	2	1	1	0	0	20:09	0:45
M. Ferraro	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	0	22:56	0:00
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	21:00	0:06
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	2	18:49	0:00
N. Leddy	D	0	0	0	3	0	4	0	0	17:05	0:00
J. Klingberg	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	16:50	1:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	37	32	5	.865	58:25	Loss
L. Brossoit	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Henrique	C	0	2	2	2	0	0	+1	0	10:12	0:00
C. McDavid	C	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	0	24:52	5:20
Z. Hyman	LW	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	2	22:31	5:03
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	-1	0	20:38	4:57
M. Savoie	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	17:52	3:48
J. Dickinson	C	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	16:31	0:59
V. Podkolzin	RW	1	0	1	4	1	1	+1	0	14:44	1:16
J. Roslovic	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	-1	0	14:31	0:38
T. Frederic	C	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	7:01	0:00
M. Jones	LW	1	0	1	2	4	0	0	0	6:56	0:00
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:39	1:16
J. Samanski	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:53	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	+2	0	24:39	5:46
M. Ekholm	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	0	19:39	1:16
C. Murphy	D	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	18:21	0:04
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	19:03	0:06
J. Walman	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	17:34	0:33
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	16:24	0:33

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ingram	30	27	3	.900	60:00	Win
T. Jarry	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1M. Celebrini18:59C. Graf14:06W. Smith11:51

Line 2T. Toffoli12:25W. Eklund13:33A. Wennberg14:32

Line 3K. Sherwood14:17P. Regenda12:47A. Gaudette10:28

Line 4B. Goodrow6:55Z. Ostapchuk5:20

Pair 1D. Orlov17:29J. Klingberg15:50

Pair 2N. Leddy16:32S. Dickinson17:53

Pair 3M. Ferraro17:35V. Desharnais14:46

EDM

Line 1Z. Hyman15:53C. McDavid17:52M. Savoie13:01

Line 2R. Nugent-Hopkins14:06J. Roslovic13:53J. Dickinson14:33

Line 3K. Kapanen13:23J. Samanski10:53V. Podkolzin13:28

Line 4T. Frederic6:59M. Jones6:56A. Henrique9:22

Pair 1C. Murphy16:53D. Nurse17:36

Pair 2M. Ekholm16:34E. Bouchard17:28

Pair 3J. Walman16:17S. Stastney15:23

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDarnell Nurse SJS First game back in Edmonton, his team until Apr 20261 SOG
Old teamJake Walman EDM Faces SJS, his team until Mar 20252 SOG
BirthdayWill Smith SJS Turns 21 that day1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.9, EDM 4.0	SJS 3, EDM 5
Total goals	6.9	8
Shots on goal	SJS 25.1, EDM 32.2	SJS 30, EDM 37
Win chance	EDM 65%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.7	5	1.88	1	43%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	3.4	2	1.25	0	35%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	3.3	3	1.03	1	44%	1
EDM E. Bouchard	2.9	3	1.21	1	22%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.2	1	0.81	0	26%	0
SJS K. Sherwood	2.1	2	0.47	2	22%	1
SJS T. Toffoli	2.1	3	0.64	0	25%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.0	3	0.93	1	27%	1
SJS W. Eklund	2.0	0	0.61	0	17%	0
EDM J. Roslovic	2.0	3	0.59	1	24%	0
EDM D. Nurse	1.9	1	0.40	0	10%	0
EDM J. Walman	1.8	2	0.45	0	13%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.7	0	0.47	0	17%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.7	1	0.50	1	18%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.7	2	0.57	1	11%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.6	4	0.48	1	18%	1
SJS C. Graf	1.5	2	0.54	0	20%	0
SJS P. Regenda	1.5	4	0.29	1	17%	1
SJS M. Misa	1.3	2	0.52	0	17%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.3	2	0.31	1	17%	0
EDM J. Dickinson	1.2	3	0.36	1	17%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.2	2	0.56	1	16%	0
SJS J. Klingberg	1.2	1	0.39	0	9%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.1	2	0.28	2	15%	0
EDM C. Murphy	1.1	2	0.27	1	7%	1
EDM M. Jones	1.1	2	0.21	1	9%	1
EDM T. Frederic	1.0	1	0.22	1	13%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.0	2	0.42	2	8%	1
SJS M. Ferraro	1.0	2	0.25	1	6%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	1.0	2	0.26	0	3%	0
EDM S. Stastney	0.8	0	0.18	0	4%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	0	0.17	0	9%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.7	0	0.12	0	7%	0
SJS V. Desharnais	0.6	0	0.14	0	2%	0
SJS N. Leddy	0.5	3	0.23	0	3%	0
EDM J. Samanski	0.5	0	0.27	0	10%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.