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Game Recap
SJS4
FLA1
SJS beat FLA 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.83 expected goals to 2.54. FLA outshot SJS 36 to 28. I. Chernyshov led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). A. Greer had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. A. Nedeljkovic stopped 35 of 36.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| FLA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- 2nd 0:50SJSW. Smith0.41 xG
- 2nd 2:41SJSV. Desharnais0.34 xG
- 2nd 6:12SJSM. Ferraro0.32 xG
- 3rd 0:43FLAE. Luostarinen0.02 xG
- 3rd 17:21SJSB. GoodrowEN0.94 xG
Team Stats
SJSFLA
28Shots on goal36
4.83Expected goals2.54
53Shot attempts65
205v5 shots on goal30
0/3Power play0/3
28Hits22
19Blocked shots13
12Penalty minutes12
14Giveaways15
3Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SJS 4.83 xGFLA 2.54 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Chernyshov | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:10 | 1:28 |
| M. Misa | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 11:17 | 0:58 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:03 | 3:12 |
| W. Smith | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:45 | 3:43 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 13:14 | 0:00 |
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:57 | 4:16 |
| C. Graf | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:20 | 1:15 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:37 | 3:19 |
| P. Regenda | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 4 | 13:21 | 1:27 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:30 | 2:17 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:38 | 0:02 |
| R. Reaves | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:57 | 0:00 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 23:44 | 0:00 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:50 | 0:50 |
| V. Desharnais | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | +2 | 6 | 14:59 | 0:00 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:25 | 2:44 |
| S. Dickinson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:10 | 0:39 |
| J. Klingberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 18:03 | 3:50 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Nedeljkovic | 36 | 35 | 1 | .972 | 60:00 | Win |
| Y. Askarov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Luostarinen | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:28 | 1:14 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:40 | 4:24 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:22 | 4:10 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 20:58 | 3:07 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:44 | 2:56 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:01 | 4:07 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:06 | 1:31 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:10 | 1:17 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 11:00 | 0:00 |
| S. Vilmanis | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:46 | 0:04 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:55 | 0:04 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 5:55 | 0:04 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 24:29 | 2:01 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 26:32 | 1:54 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -4 | 2 | 19:07 | 2:59 |
| T. Bjornfot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:33 | 0:04 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:12 | 0:00 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 12:36 | 0:04 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 27 | 24 | 3 | .889 | 59:26 | Loss |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
SJS
Line 1W. Smith12:31M. Celebrini13:57C. Graf13:26
Line 2A. Wennberg13:04W. Eklund14:18T. Toffoli10:13
Line 3I. Chernyshov11:42M. Misa10:14P. Regenda10:52
Line 4B. Goodrow9:57Z. Ostapchuk8:59R. Reaves6:57
Pair 1M. Ferraro18:30T. Liljegren15:21
Pair 2D. Orlov15:45J. Klingberg13:17
Pair 3S. Dickinson14:30V. Desharnais13:37
FLA
Line 1C. Verhaeghe13:20S. Bennett13:44M. Tkachuk15:47
Line 2S. Reinhart13:43A. Lundell13:55E. Luostarinen13:40
Line 3E. Rodrigues12:24M. Samoskevich9:53A. Greer9:50
Line 4J. Boqvist5:51C. Schwindt6:18S. Vilmanis7:52
Pair 1A. Ekblad18:50G. Forsling20:46
Pair 2J. Petry11:50T. Bjornfot13:48
Pair 3U. Balinskis13:59N. Mikkola11:40
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SJS 2.7, FLA 3.7 | SJS 4, FLA 1 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | SJS 23.8, FLA 31.1 | SJS 28, FLA 36 |
| Win chance | FLA 66% | SJS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.4 | 3 | 1.25 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 3.3 | 4 | 1.02 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 3.2 | 0 | 1.26 | 0 | 46% | 0 |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.9 | 3 | 1.24 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.8 | 4 | 1.02 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.7 | 6 | 0.92 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.3 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.3 | 2 | 0.68 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 2.2 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 2.1 | 4 | 0.69 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 2.0 | 1 | 0.68 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| SJS P. Regenda | 1.8 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.8 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.8 | 3 | 0.62 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.7 | 1 | 0.60 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS J. Klingberg | 1.6 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.6 | 5 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SJS I. Chernyshov | 1.5 | 3 | 0.46 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.4 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS D. Orlov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS M. Misa | 1.2 | 3 | 0.31 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.2 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS C. Graf | 1.2 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.1 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS S. Dickinson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA J. Petry | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.7 | 2 | 0.16 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| FLA C. Schwindt | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA T. Bjornfot | 0.7 | 3 | 0.09 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
| SJS Z. Ostapchuk | 0.6 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS V. Desharnais | 0.6 | 2 | 0.11 | 1 | 1% | 1 |
| SJS R. Reaves | 0.5 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.