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Game Recap
SJS2
FinalThu, Oct 24, 2024Every game that night
LAK3

LAK beat SJS 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 2.68 expected goals to 1.60. M. Granlund led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Granlund had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. D. Rittich stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
SJS0112
LAK3003
  1. 1st 4:31LAKJ. Spence0.10 xG
  2. 1st 8:47LAKW. Foegele0.08 xG
  3. 1st 11:36LAKW. Foegele0.11 xG
  4. 2nd 10:05SJSM. GranlundPP0.02 xG
  5. 3rd 19:00SJSM. GranlundPP0.04 xG

Team Stats

SJSLAK
26Shots on goal30
1.60Expected goals2.68
62Shot attempts56
165v5 shots on goal24
2/6Power play0/2
39Hits24
13Blocked shots24
11Penalty minutes19
13Giveaways21
9Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 1.60 xGLAK 2.68 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdLAK goal, 4:31LAK goal, 8:47LAK goal, 11:36SJS goal, 10:05SJS goal, 19:00

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS26 on goal, 2 scored
LAK30 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. GranlundC202621-2022:587:25
A. WennbergC0222200021:237:34
T. ToffoliC000510-3222:057:34
W. EklundLW000210-3021:587:24
F. ZetterlundLW0002410016:221:39
T. DellandreaC000070-1015:130:03
B. GoodrowC0000600015:121:25
L. KuninC0002020512:391:30
C. GrundstromRW0000200012:240:00
D. GushchinLW0000120211:111:36
N. SturmC0002100011:080:00
K. KostinC000010005:090:00
J. ThompsonD022103-2020:347:01
J. WalmanD000320-1219:421:29
C. CeciD000110-1019:020:07
J. RuttaD0000200017:390:00
M. FerraroD0000310017:050:00
H. ThrunD000033-2014:320:33
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
M. Blackwood30273.90057:44Loss
V. Vanecek000–0:00

LAK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
W. FoegeleLW202401+2015:160:13
A. LaferriereRW022233+2014:502:09
P. DanaultC011113+1016:190:55
T. MooreLW011100+1015:430:52
A. KopitarC0001020019:122:29
A. KempeRW0002120218:232:22
Q. ByfieldRW0004100017:021:21
K. FialaLW000211+1215:042:20
A. TurcotteC000210+2013:241:02
T. JeannotLW000230029:030:00
T. LewisC000101048:540:00
A. LeeLW000022058:200:00
J. SpenceD101223+2217:221:29
B. ClarkeD011210+1015:132:03
V. GavrikovD000022+1025:210:01
J. EdmundsonD0001320024:040:00
M. AndersonD000210+2021:440:14
K. BurroughsD0001220213:130:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Rittich26242.92360:00Win
D. Kuemper000–0:00

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreSJS 2.4, LAK 3.9SJS 2, LAK 3
Total goals6.35
Shots on goalSJS 24.1, LAK 35.4SJS 26, LAK 30
Win chanceLAK 72%LAK won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
LAK A. Kempe3.221.07039%0
LAK K. Fiala2.921.09033%0
LAK T. Moore2.810.69127%0
SJS T. Toffoli2.550.67028%0
LAK W. Foegele2.440.54222%2
LAK A. Laferriere2.220.48222%0
LAK Q. Byfield2.140.73020%0
LAK B. Clarke2.020.5117%0
SJS F. Zetterlund2.020.45019%0
SJS M. Granlund2.060.77216%2
LAK P. Danault1.910.69124%0
SJS J. Walman1.930.30011%0
LAK V. Gavrikov1.800.4409%0
SJS W. Eklund1.720.60019%0
LAK A. Kopitar1.711.01029%0
LAK M. Anderson1.520.3707%0
LAK J. Spence1.520.4815%1
LAK A. Lee1.400.28011%0
SJS D. Gushchin1.400.35014%0
LAK T. Lewis1.410.25011%0
LAK J. Edmundson1.310.2605%0
SJS C. Grundstrom1.200.20011%0
LAK A. Turcotte1.220.35012%0
SJS L. Kunin1.220.25014%0
SJS C. Ceci1.110.2605%0
SJS J. Thompson1.110.2124%0
SJS T. Dellandrea1.100.23010%0
LAK K. Burroughs1.110.1704%0
LAK T. Jeannot1.120.29014%0
SJS M. Ferraro1.100.1803%0
SJS B. Goodrow1.000.28012%0
SJS A. Wennberg1.020.34213%0
SJS J. Rutta0.900.2205%0
SJS N. Sturm0.820.1909%0
SJS K. Kostin0.800.29014%0
SJS H. Thrun0.700.1804%0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.