LAK beat SJS 8-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.96 expected goals to 2.50. LAK outshot SJS 36 to 23. A. Kuzmenko led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). W. Foegele had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. D. Rittich stopped 22 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| LAK | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 |
- 1st 5:35LAKP. Danault0.11 xG
- 1st 15:13LAKA. KempePP0.19 xG
- 2nd 4:52SJSC. Lund0.16 xG
- 2nd 6:57LAKT. Moore0.14 xG
- 2nd 13:31LAKW. FoegelePP0.24 xG
- 2nd 19:03LAKW. Foegele0.09 xG
- 2nd 19:38LAKA. Kempe0.16 xG
- 3rd 14:49LAKA. Kuzmenko0.05 xG
- 3rd 15:22LAKT. Lewis0.02 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SJS 2.50 xGLAK 3.96 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Lund | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:32 | 1:52 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:14 | 4:11 |
| C. Graf | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:04 | 0:58 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:00 | 0:20 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:19 | 3:57 |
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:00 | 4:11 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:57 | 4:00 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:23 | 3:48 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:33 | 0:11 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11:41 | 0:26 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:10 | 0:37 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 4 | 9:53 | 0:05 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 | 20:22 | 1:29 |
| S. Mukhamadullin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 0 | 25:12 | 2:14 |
| L. Carlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 19:24 | 1:30 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 18:44 | 2:04 |
| L. Cagnoni | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 16:41 | 0:33 |
| M. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 15:10 | 0:24 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Romanov | 36 | 28 | 8 | .778 | 60:00 | Loss |
| A. Georgiev | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 18:01 | 6:08 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 17:55 | 5:43 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:47 | 6:21 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:35 | 3:54 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:07 | 3:56 |
| T. Moore | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 16:46 | 3:29 |
| P. Danault | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:07 | 2:57 |
| T. Lewis | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 10:19 | 0:00 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:57 | 5:28 |
| J. Malott | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:22 | 0:00 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:49 | 0:00 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:13 | 0:00 |
| D. Doughty | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:12 | 5:47 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:11 | 3:50 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:21 | 0:00 |
| J. Moverare | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 12:38 | 0:00 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 11:31 | 0:13 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:42 | 0:19 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Rittich | 23 | 22 | 1 | .957 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Kuemper | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SJS 2.5, LAK 3.7 | SJS 1, LAK 8 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | SJS 24.2, LAK 31.4 | SJS 23, LAK 36 |
| Win chance | LAK 68% | LAK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS M. Celebrini | 2.9 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.9 | 5 | 0.95 | 2 | 37% | 2 |
| LAK K. Fiala | 2.9 | 5 | 0.95 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.7 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.5 | 7 | 0.64 | 2 | 25% | 2 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.3 | 1 | 0.62 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.0 | 4 | 0.77 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| LAK P. Danault | 1.7 | 1 | 0.65 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| SJS W. Smith | 1.7 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.6 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kuzmenko | 1.6 | 4 | 0.73 | 3 | 30% | 1 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.6 | 4 | 0.47 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.5 | 2 | 0.68 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.4 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.3 | 0 | 0.86 | 3 | 26% | 0 |
| SJS C. Grundstrom | 1.3 | 5 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| LAK V. Gavrikov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.39 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS C. Graf | 1.2 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS N. Gregor | 1.1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS S. Mukhamadullin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS L. Carlsson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.0 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| LAK J. Spence | 1.0 | 0 | 0.34 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK T. Lewis | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS M. Vlasic | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.8 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.6 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK J. Moverare | 0.5 | 0 | 0.12 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| SJS Z. Ostapchuk | 0.5 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 15 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.