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Game Recap
SJS4
LAK3
SJS beat LAK 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.52 expected goals to 3.13. M. Celebrini led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). T. Toffoli had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. Y. Askarov stopped 23 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| LAK | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
- 2nd 4:10SJST. ToffoliPP0.56 xG
- 2nd 11:34LAKA. Turcotte0.14 xG
- 3rd 5:38SJSA. GaudettePP0.07 xG
- 3rd 6:40LAKK. Fiala0.17 xG
- 3rd 17:50LAKA. Laferriere0.05 xG
- 3rd 18:53SJSM. Celebrini0.22 xG
- OT 3:08SJSW. Eklund0.16 xG
Team Stats
SJSLAK
28Shots on goal26
4.52Expected goals3.13
60Shot attempts55
145v5 shots on goal23
2/4Power play0/3
21Hits12
17Blocked shots14
6Penalty minutes8
17Giveaways17
8Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SJS 4.52 xGLAK 3.13 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Celebrini | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 25:12 | 4:22 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:26 | 3:30 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:24 | 3:29 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:55 | 3:30 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:50 | 1:30 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:39 | 1:16 |
| P. Regenda | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:29 | 1:30 |
| C. Graf | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:27 | 0:00 |
| I. Chernyshov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:43 | 0:53 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 12:36 | 0:00 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 12:09 | 0:00 |
| R. Reaves | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:54 | 0:00 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 23:59 | 1:16 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:44 | 3:44 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:12 | 0:00 |
| N. Leddy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:38 | 0:00 |
| S. Dickinson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:28 | 0:00 |
| V. Iorio | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 14:26 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Askarov | 26 | 23 | 3 | .885 | 62:21 | Win |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Fiala | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:26 | 3:57 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:22 | 1:40 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:40 | 0:30 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:46 | 4:04 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:37 | 2:38 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 20:08 | 3:14 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:29 | 1:06 |
| J. Malott | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:30 | 0:01 |
| T. Ward | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:20 | 0:20 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:00 | 0:00 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7:36 | 0:10 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 20:13 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:00 | 0:00 |
| D. Doughty | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 22:22 | 1:50 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 22:12 | 2:40 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:11 | 0:05 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:07 | 0:15 |
| J. Moverare | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:58 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 28 | 24 | 4 | .857 | 63:05 | OT loss |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
SJS
Line 1M. Celebrini16:09W. Eklund14:54I. Chernyshov13:50
Line 2A. Wennberg12:35P. Regenda13:12T. Toffoli12:38
Line 3J. Skinner10:20C. Graf12:37A. Gaudette10:23
Line 4B. Goodrow10:00Z. Ostapchuk9:53R. Reaves7:51
Pair 1D. Orlov16:23T. Liljegren18:36
Pair 2N. Leddy16:04S. Dickinson14:24
Pair 3M. Ferraro16:38V. Iorio14:23
LAK
Line 1K. Fiala17:29A. Kuzmenko17:10A. Turcotte14:12
Line 2A. Kempe13:10A. Laferriere14:13T. Ward10:00
Line 3Q. Byfield13:39W. Foegele14:26J. Malott14:42
Line 4S. Helenius7:26A. Lee8:00
Pair 1D. Doughty16:55M. Anderson17:18
Pair 2B. Clarke17:00J. Edmundson16:40
Pair 3C. Ceci13:38J. Moverare6:58
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SJS 2.5, LAK 3.7 | SJS 4, LAK 3 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | SJS 24.1, LAK 31.6 | SJS 28, LAK 26 |
| Win chance | LAK 70% | SJS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.3 | 7 | 1.07 | 3 | 31% | 1 |
| LAK K. Fiala | 3.2 | 4 | 1.00 | 2 | 37% | 1 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 3.2 | 0 | 1.06 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.8 | 3 | 0.65 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.4 | 2 | 0.84 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.4 | 7 | 0.63 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.4 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 2.3 | 5 | 0.64 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 2.0 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.7 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS P. Regenda | 1.6 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS I. Chernyshov | 1.6 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS J. Skinner | 1.6 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kuzmenko | 1.5 | 2 | 0.68 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 1.3 | 4 | 0.38 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.29 | 2 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS C. Graf | 1.3 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SJS A. Gaudette | 1.2 | 2 | 0.28 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| SJS D. Orlov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.2 | 0 | 0.52 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK A. Lee | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK J. Malott | 1.0 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK B. Dumoulin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK C. Ceci | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS S. Dickinson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS Z. Ostapchuk | 0.7 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS V. Iorio | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK J. Moverare | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SJS N. Leddy | 0.6 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SJS R. Reaves | 0.6 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.5 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.