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Game Recap
SJS2
FinalWed, Nov 4, 2026Every game that night
LAK7

LAK beat SJS 7-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.22 expected goals to 2.40. A. Kempe scored three for LAK. I. Stenberg had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. D. Kuemper stopped 30 of 32.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
SJS0112
LAK3227
  1. 1st 1:23LAKA. Kempe0.21 xG
  2. 1st 16:09LAKA. Kempe0.16 xG
  3. 1st 18:38LAKQ. ByfieldPP0.21 xG
  4. 2nd 5:07SJSM. CelebriniPP0.05 xG
  5. 2nd 11:10LAKE. Haula0.11 xG
  6. 2nd 15:51LAKA. KempePP0.10 xG
  7. 3rd 2:12LAKJ. Armia0.06 xG
  8. 3rd 9:41SJSI. StenbergPP0.01 xG
  9. 3rd 14:28LAKQ. ByfieldPP0.10 xG

Team Stats

SJSLAK
32Shots on goal27
2.40Expected goals4.22
67Shot attempts56
205v5 shots on goal16
2/6Power play3/5
20Hits31
12Blocked shots19
10Penalty minutes12
16Giveaways14
2Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 2.40 xGLAK 4.22 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdLAK goal, 1:23LAK goal, 16:09LAK goal, 18:38SJS goal, 5:07LAK goal, 11:10LAK goal, 15:51LAK goal, 2:12SJS goal, 9:41LAK goal, 14:28

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS32 on goal, 2 scored
LAK26 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. MisaC022210-2015:332:09
M. CelebriniC101531-1422:407:39
I. StenbergLW101400-1013:025:04
W. SmithC000000-1021:006:15
M. MarchmentLW000411-1018:056:27
K. SherwoodLW000281-1017:393:44
C. GrafRW0003110016:542:38
T. ToffoliC000100-1215:415:42
B. GoodrowC000310-1012:130:00
T. DellandreaC000131-1011:510:00
Z. OstapchukC000100-1210:360:00
F. BystedtC000201-128:120:00
D. OrlovD022001-1016:523:11
D. NurseD000110-1019:500:00
M. KesselringD000001-1018:440:00
S. DickinsonD000002-2018:110:00
E. PohlkampD000301-1017:374:21
J. TroubaD000011-2017:210:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
Y. Askarov27207.74160:00Loss
A. Nedeljkovic000–0:00

LAK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. PanarinLW044301+2218:024:43
A. KempeRW314400+2217:234:38
Q. ByfieldRW2024000020:444:20
E. HaulaLW112271+2014:291:38
A. LaferriereRW011442+2016:594:36
J. ArmiaRW101130+2412:510:04
K. ConnorsC011021+2011:210:00
T. MooreLW0002010014:150:04
C. PerryRW0003000013:351:44
S. LaughtonC0000310212:290:06
A. LeeLW0000120012:010:00
M. ChromiakRW000210009:031:44
E. GustafssonD022020+3220:044:30
B. ClarkeD011004+3018:121:54
B. DumoulinD0110110017:540:00
D. DoughtyD000121+1021:592:09
M. AndersonD0000230020:150:00
J. EdmundsonD000131+1017:300:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Kuemper32302.93859:55Win
A. Forsberg000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1W. Smith13:57M. Celebrini15:01M. Misa12:34
Line 2M. Marchment11:38K. Sherwood12:02C. Graf10:19
Line 3B. Goodrow8:31T. Dellandrea9:09Z. Ostapchuk8:28
Line 4F. Bystedt8:07I. Stenberg7:53T. Toffoli9:54
Pair 1J. Trouba12:46S. Dickinson16:00
Pair 2D. Nurse14:05M. Kesselring15:19
Pair 3D. Orlov13:36E. Pohlkamp13:11

LAK

Line 1A. Panarin13:19A. Kempe12:40A. Laferriere12:23
Line 2C. Perry11:05Q. Byfield11:16T. Moore10:15
Line 3E. Haula9:52J. Armia11:01K. Connors10:36
Line 4S. Laughton9:18A. Lee8:12M. Chromiak7:19
Pair 1B. Dumoulin14:12M. Anderson14:38
Pair 2E. Gustafsson14:26B. Clarke14:34
Pair 3D. Doughty13:49J. Edmundson13:35

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 18 overs hit (56%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
SJS M. Celebrini3.5+116-1405Over
LAK A. Kempe2.5-154+1304Over
LAK A. Laferriere2.5-140+1124Over
LAK A. Panarin2.5-170+1453Over
LAK Q. Byfield2.5+118-1304Over
LAK T. Moore2.5+140-1602Under
SJS T. Toffoli2.5+135-1601Under
SJS W. Smith2.5+120-1250Under
LAK B. Clarke1.5-138+1150Under
LAK C. Perry1.5-110-1103Over
LAK D. Doughty1.5+150-1751Under
SJS I. Stenberg1.5+108-1204Over
SJS J. Trouba1.5+115-1350Under
SJS K. Sherwood1.5-125+1102Over
SJS M. Kesselring1.5+125-1600Under
SJS M. Marchment1.5-130+1154Over
SJS M. Misa1.5+155-1852Over
LAK S. Laughton1.5+110-1350Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreSJS 2.9, LAK 3.5SJS 2, LAK 7
Total goals6.49
Shots on goalSJS 25.8, LAK 29.9SJS 32, LAK 27
Win chanceLAK 59%LAK won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
SJS M. Celebrini3.451.17135%1
LAK A. Panarin3.231.38441%0
LAK A. Kempe3.241.11441%3
LAK A. Laferriere3.140.85131%0
LAK Q. Byfield2.540.78229%2
LAK T. Moore2.520.60024%0
SJS T. Toffoli2.410.61025%0
SJS W. Smith2.300.76026%0
SJS K. Sherwood1.920.46019%0
LAK C. Perry1.930.54025%0
SJS M. Marchment1.840.66024%0
SJS J. Trouba1.800.3508%0
SJS D. Nurse1.710.2707%0
LAK B. Clarke1.700.50110%0
SJS M. Kesselring1.600.2907%0
LAK S. Laughton1.600.37016%0
LAK E. Haula1.520.44218%1
SJS I. Stenberg1.440.49118%1
LAK J. Armia1.410.36116%1
SJS C. Graf1.330.43017%0
LAK E. Gustafsson1.300.49210%0
SJS M. Misa1.320.46217%0
LAK D. Doughty1.310.49010%0
LAK A. Lee1.200.33013%0
LAK J. Edmundson1.210.2505%0
SJS S. Dickinson1.000.2506%0
SJS D. Orlov1.000.3326%0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk0.810.1106%0
LAK M. Anderson0.700.2505%0
SJS B. Goodrow0.730.1407%0
LAK B. Dumoulin0.700.2315%0

Shots on goal: 15 of 31 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.