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Game Recap
SJS7
MIN8
MIN beat SJS 8-7 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.45 expected goals to 3.52. MIN outshot SJS 44 to 31. M. Celebrini scored three for SJS. K. Kaprizov had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 3.8. M. Fleury stopped 24 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| MIN | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
- 1st 12:11SJST. Toffoli0.13 xG
- 1st 14:16MINM. Johansson0.05 xG
- 1st 18:48MINB. Faber0.09 xG
- 2nd 7:29SJSM. Celebrini0.23 xG
- 2nd 7:47MINJ. Eriksson Ek0.42 xG
- 2nd 8:35SJSC. Grundstrom0.65 xG
- 2nd 12:28SJSM. Celebrini0.07 xG
- 2nd 17:02MINK. KaprizovPP0.16 xG
- 2nd 19:48MINJ. Eriksson EkPP0.63 xG
- 3rd 1:02MINJ. Eriksson EkPP0.05 xG
- 3rd 2:06MINJ. Eriksson Ek0.20 xG
- 3rd 4:44SJSN. Kovalenko0.23 xG
- 3rd 10:02SJSM. Celebrini0.17 xG
- 3rd 19:08SJSW. Smith0.10 xG
- OT 1:01MINK. Kaprizov0.17 xG
Team Stats
SJSMIN
31Shots on goal44
3.52Expected goals4.45
56Shot attempts87
275v5 shots on goal31
0/0Power play3/4
27Hits24
24Blocked shots14
10Penalty minutes2
10Giveaways17
3Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SJS 3.52 xGMIN 4.45 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Celebrini | C | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +4 | 0 | 19:09 | 0:00 |
| W. Smith | C | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:44 | 0:00 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 22:25 | 0:00 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:49 | 0:00 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:48 | 0:00 |
| N. Kovalenko | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:19 | 0:00 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 11:48 | 0:00 |
| C. Lund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:54 | 0:00 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:44 | 0:00 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13:25 | 0:00 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:43 | 0:00 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:18 | 0:00 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 25:57 | 0:00 |
| J. Thompson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20:34 | 0:00 |
| H. Thrun | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:25 | 0:00 |
| L. Carlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 19:42 | 0:00 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 18:04 | 0:00 |
| M. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:52 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Georgiev | 44 | 36 | 8 | .818 | 59:40 | OT loss |
| G. Romanov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 4 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:04 | 3:00 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:55 | 2:24 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:41 | 3:27 |
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:28 | 2:57 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 19:02 | 3:01 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:07 | 0:00 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:34 | 0:47 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:45 | 0:43 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 11:29 | 0:00 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:26 | 0:44 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:37 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:02 | 0:17 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:27 | 0:19 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:13 | 0:00 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:38 | 0:00 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 13:07 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 12:49 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Fleury | 31 | 24 | 7 | .774 | 61:01 | Win |
| F. Gustavsson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SJS 2.7, MIN 3.5 | SJS 7, MIN 8 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 15 |
| Shots on goal | SJS 27.9, MIN 30.5 | SJS 31, MIN 44 |
| Win chance | MIN 63% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.8 | 9 | 1.50 | 3 | 50% | 2 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.6 | 4 | 1.12 | 4 | 37% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 3.3 | 8 | 0.87 | 4 | 31% | 4 |
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.3 | 4 | 0.79 | 5 | 24% | 3 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 3.0 | 3 | 0.70 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.5 | 4 | 0.99 | 3 | 27% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.4 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 2.1 | 3 | 0.65 | 4 | 22% | 1 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.64 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.9 | 1 | 0.65 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.9 | 1 | 0.75 | 2 | 27% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.8 | 0 | 0.36 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.8 | 1 | 0.54 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.8 | 0 | 0.58 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.8 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.7 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS C. Grundstrom | 1.6 | 4 | 0.20 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.5 | 3 | 0.53 | 2 | 22% | 0 |
| MIN G. Nyquist | 1.5 | 0 | 0.61 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| SJS L. Carlsson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS J. Thompson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.24 | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS C. Lund | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.2 | 5 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.1 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.1 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SJS N. Gregor | 1.1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS H. Thrun | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brazeau | 0.9 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 0.9 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS M. Vlasic | 0.9 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS N. Kovalenko | 0.8 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS Z. Ostapchuk | 0.5 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.