Game Recap: SJS 6, MIN 5 (OT), October 26, 2025

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Game Recap

SJS6

Final/OTSun, Oct 26, 2025Every game that night

MIN5

SJS beat MIN 6-5 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 3.16 expected goals to 3.81. MIN outshot SJS 33 to 25. W. Eklund led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). B. Faber had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. Y. Askarov stopped 28 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
SJS	2	2	1	1	6
MIN	2	0	3	0	5

1st 5:28SJSW. EklundPP0.14 xG
1st 13:35SJSM. Misa0.64 xG
1st 17:02MINM. JohanssonPP0.16 xG
1st 17:34MINM. Rossi0.12 xG
2nd 11:15SJSW. Eklund0.15 xG
2nd 11:34SJSR. Reaves0.28 xG
3rd 4:28MINR. HartmanPP0.19 xG
3rd 7:52SJST. ToffoliPP0.15 xG
3rd 8:28MINZ. Buium0.02 xG
3rd 17:42MINJ. Eriksson Ek0.10 xG
OT 3:47SJSM. Celebrini0.14 xG

Team Stats

SJSMIN

25Shots on goal33

3.16Expected goals3.81

45Shot attempts77

185v5 shots on goal22

2/2Power play2/4

22Hits17

18Blocked shots12

8Penalty minutes4

17Giveaways14

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 3.16 xGMIN 3.81 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS24 on goal, 6 scored

MIN33 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Eklund	LW	2	1	3	4	1	0	0	0	25:29	1:40
M. Celebrini	C	1	2	3	3	0	0	0	0	21:47	1:44
P. Kurashev	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	20:26	0:54
T. Toffoli	C	1	0	1	4	1	1	-1	0	16:50	1:42
M. Misa	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	2	11:02	0:51
T. Dellandrea	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	9:00	0:00
B. Goodrow	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	8:57	0:00
R. Reaves	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	3:42	0:00
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	23:27	0:52
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	17:56	1:42
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	17:44	0:52
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	6:39	0:00
T. Liljegren	D	0	1	1	1	3	2	+2	0	27:28	0:50
D. Orlov	D	0	1	1	0	2	3	+1	4	23:19	1:43
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	1	5	1	-1	0	22:55	0:00
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	2	1	5	0	0	18:23	0:00
V. Iorio	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	18:00	0:00
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	11:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	33	28	5	.848	63:47	Win
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	3	3	3	0	0	0	0	27:08	5:15
M. Rossi	C	1	1	2	2	1	0	-2	0	22:14	1:36
R. Hartman	RW	1	1	2	3	0	1	+1	0	15:55	3:08
M. Johansson	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	22:01	1:36
J. Eriksson Ek	C	1	0	1	5	4	2	+1	0	21:09	3:57
Y. Trenin	C	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	12:04	0:00
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	25:55	5:15
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:15	5:01
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	2	12:20	0:00
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	5:38	0:00
T. Pitlick	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	4:34	0:00
B. Jones	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	4:32	0:00
B. Faber	D	0	3	3	5	1	3	+1	0	26:26	2:02
Z. Buium	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	16:45	1:36
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	27:17	4:49
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+2	0	19:53	0:00
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	2	19:11	0:00
D.Jiricek	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	8:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	25	19	6	.760	63:25	OT loss
F. Gustavsson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1A. Wennberg17:00P. Kurashev17:29W. Eklund20:14

Line 2W. Smith15:50M. Celebrini19:12T. Toffoli15:08

Line 3C. Graf13:14M. Misa10:11A. Gaudette6:39

Line 4B. Goodrow5:38T. Dellandrea6:05R. Reaves3:42

Pair 1D. Orlov20:58T. Liljegren19:54

Pair 2M. Ferraro18:37V. Iorio16:00

Pair 3V. Desharnais13:48S. Dickinson11:26

MIN

Line 1M. Johansson18:52M. Rossi17:50K. Kaprizov19:16

Line 2J. Ek14:51M. Boldy16:51V. Tarasenko12:14

Line 3V. Hinostroza12:20Y. Trenin11:01R. Hartman12:47

Line 4B. Jones4:32D. Yurov5:38T. Pitlick4:34

Pair 1J. Spurgeon20:03J. Middleton18:08

Pair 2J. Brodin18:22B. Faber20:47

Pair 3Z. Buium15:09D.Jiricek7:50

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.8, MIN 3.5	SJS 6, MIN 5
Total goals	6.3	11
Shots on goal	SJS 27.1, MIN 30.9	SJS 25, MIN 33
Win chance	MIN 61%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.9	3	1.51	3	50%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.7	3	1.21	0	38%	0
MIN J. Ek	3.3	5	0.88	1	31%	1
SJS M. Celebrini	3.2	3	0.89	3	28%	1
SJS T. Toffoli	2.9	4	0.72	1	31%	1
MIN R. Hartman	2.7	3	0.62	2	25%	1
SJS W. Smith	2.1	2	0.73	0	23%	0
SJS W. Eklund	2.0	4	0.65	3	19%	2
MIN V. Tarasenko	2.0	0	0.74	0	27%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.9	0	0.53	1	10%	0
MIN M. Rossi	1.7	2	0.63	2	23%	1
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.6	2	0.49	0	12%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.6	1	0.34	1	7%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.6	5	0.34	3	9%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.6	3	0.50	1	17%	1
MIN J. Brodin	1.4	1	0.40	0	8%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.3	1	0.26	1	14%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	1.3	1	0.33	0	14%	0
MIN Z. Buium	1.3	1	0.49	1	5%	1
SJS A. Gaudette	1.2	0	0.34	0	17%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.2	1	0.24	0	5%	0
SJS P. Kurashev	1.2	2	0.40	1	14%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.2	1	0.44	0	15%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.1	0	0.30	0	13%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	1.1	1	0.16	0	4%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.1	2	0.26	0	7%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.0	0	0.28	0	14%	0
MIN T. Pitlick	1.0	1	0.22	0	9%	0
MIN B. Jones	1.0	0	0.07	0	6%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.9	0	0.21	1	8%	0
MIN D.Jiricek	0.9	0	0.23	0	4%	0
SJS V. Iorio	0.9	1	0.12	0	3%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	1	0.16	1	9%	0
SJS V. Desharnais	0.6	2	0.12	0	1%	0
SJS R. Reaves	0.4	1	0.11	1	5%	1

Shots on goal: 25 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.